Managing Funds for a Living

Discussion in 'Professional Trading' started by paysense, May 18, 2007.

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  1. http://youtube.com/watch?v=2V_rmACvBZs
     
    #71     Jun 4, 2007
  2. #72     Jun 4, 2007
  3. #73     Jun 4, 2007
  4. Let's say u know best...

    Now take this hypothetical situation:

    (1) One has success with a covered call strategy.

    (a) a small account is opened
    (b) gains are ramped up during flat-to-uptrends
    (c) losses are minimized during downtrends
    (d) this is done for 5 years
    (e) average returns eclipse 50% per annum

    (2) One determines (most) all types of market periods have been
    experienced.

    (3) One confidently feels similar executions can be successful in a
    larger account.

    (4) One unswayingly feels that these are the results that matter
    most.

    (5) One spends time just blah-blahing, knowing the above
    criterion has already been excrutiatingly accomplished.

    (6) One figures fear from scams are the likely culprit in this arena,
    so steers far from becoming any semblence thereof.

    (5) Despite all, one still fully intends on leveraging these results
    into further successes.

    Then...

    A bunch of yahoo's create a bunch of hoopla over practically nothing. Some examples:

    Said group determines that all that one wants is OPM,

    that 50% average annual returns are easily achievable by many,

    that down markets have not yet been experienced,

    that an abundance of successful investment results are easily presented as such.

    that said group knows things not known to person so one is regarded as nothing - even if above criterion is unaffected.

    that if said group deems what is proposed cannot be true - then it isn't,

    said person must be terrible,

    said person postings have no merit and hence is deserving of these types of replies.

    And so,

    said person shoots self like Jesse Livermore, believing the cantankerous blatherers who felt said person was a blatherer.

    NO!

    ...or,

    said person continues to feel good about self, sleeps well, is somewhat emboldened by these replies, remains open to learning more (i.e. the re-direction from one poster to C2) and lives on...fully expecting to perhaps somehow encounter new avenues to share in these results - one day or another.

    PayS

    One will still probably encounter the myriad of one-liners by those that enjoy going - "AH-HAH!! the term 'hypothetical' was used.", "Why 'toot your horn' you haven't really done this?", "I don't like you, so there", "You've already proven you are a scam.", I've only experienced a bull market, so the same must be true for you.", "You won't make money in a downtrend." (duh), "People with money will run from you.", "I am having some real success and I can show you, I really can.", "Build a track record you idiot!" etc, etc.

    Now answer this. Given the discussions presented by said group...

    Who is the student and who is the teacher?

    Could it be that said person does know a little something? Perhaps said person should rightly take hold onto these merits, deem them as being of value and forge right on through to step (5).

    Between you 'n me...I would think a new line of gibber-jabber is worth ALL of our time?
     
    #74     Jun 4, 2007
  5. Here was yesterday's 'real-time' trade alert...

    Monday, June 4, 2007
    11:35 am PST

    Bought 200 shares of AKS (AK Steel Holding Corporation) at $35.15 (ask).

    Sold (2) AKS Jun 35 (AKSFG) call option contracts at $1.45 (bid).

    Why? To make money. Is it sure? No. What main factors are considered? Market broadly strong, favorable stock price trend, sound company rating for option premium recieved, earnings already reported and no foreseen upcoming news releases.

    Further advantages...

    Short call option is covered and slightly in-the-money (ITM).

    A 3.7% return is immediately recieved from premium.

    Stock needs only be held for 10 days total.

    Percent of 20k portfolio: 30%

    Is percent exposure a risk? Not necessarily. Strong research parameters most never result in any (non-biotech) position taking precipitous 25-50% fall. But if it did...portfolio would take a 15% hit. This conceivably can be made up in about 2 months with this covered call strategy.

    A 10-20% hit has happened on average with 1 or 2 (non-biotech) stocks each year - mostly due to a violent earnings report fluctuation. We close these positions immediately and move on with the 6% hit the portfolio easy to make up. As a rule, we avoid holding a position through it's release date. Again, this applies for most all holdings - not biotechs, which we do invest in.

    One biotech firm at any given time in our portfolio produces very nice returns most invested months. We do however get hit about once per year for this larger 25%-50% drop. However with these holdings a 20% allocation to the portfolio makes the risk to drawdown MUCH less. About 10% that can be made up rather quickly.

    Even still this strategy is easy to sleep at night. Historically, drawdowns have been: ~10% just recently and ~15% in early 2004.

    That's the downside - and like I say...take a look at charts and see that day-to-day fluctuations with this approach (I deem) are worth the risk. [50% average annual returns with comparably low risk (ok we'll take your side...are CURRENTLY BEING proven with a much smaller account) - are nothing to balk at.]

    Also note that that 20k ledger at the left of chart can be 20M, with the same 4-6 positions. And guess what? The same day-to-day fluctuations will chart out. Not bad (I think most would agree).

    The upside: Annualized return for a two week holding at this rate is about 250%.

    Of course I don't care as this means nothing - but managing risk is what 'GILL' has aspired to of late. And most would have to agree by now...this is a feat not easily achieved!:p

    Paysense
     
    #75     Jun 5, 2007
  6. Paysense do you think your strategy would scale if your account fund size grows?

    Would you be able to handle the pressures of say a $40,000 account?
     
    #76     Jun 5, 2007
  7. yesterday...

    real time...

    lol
     
    #77     Jun 5, 2007
    .sigma likes this.
  8. ...now you've got me even wonderin'???????

    NO! Stay true to form GilL!

    This was done in my account and now with the 'auditable' C2 account.

    "Do I really think...?"

    I've been doing these in my sleep for quite a while, so yeah. GA
     
    #78     Jun 5, 2007
  9. Am I missing something here? Shouldn't this guy be banned from posting here????

    He seems like some kind of hack trading a 20K account who bought some sad web site and thinks he's qualified to give trading advice?!?!

    Obviously anyone who would gives this guy a penny deserves what they get but I mean this seems criminal.

    Please let me know if I am grossly misreading this whole situation.
     
    #79     Jun 5, 2007
  10. No you are not, Baron is asleep...
     
    #80     Jun 5, 2007
    .sigma likes this.
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