Pekelo: You are right, what is that a 10-month chart? By perpetuating that return over say 5 or even 10 years could put you in some good company. Let's see...100k to 125k, then drawdown ~44k= 44k/125k or 35.2% Then a nice rocket ship up to 200k, so by repeating pattern... (1-.352) or .648x200k = $129,600. And again, 1.25 x 129.6k = $162,000. .648x162k = $104,976 Remember went from 81k to 200k or 119/81 = 1.469 So 2.469x104976= $259,200 and again and so on and so on. 160% in 20 months - Excellent! ============================================== Mine kinda sucks - Adjusted for realism 09-Aug-2007: Not Adjusted for realism 10-Aug-2007: But I too, plan on a nice exponential jump once this correction terminates: Classic Fund (non-margin) Pro Fund (limited-margin) Paysense
Pro Members Area > Newsletters > August 5, 2007 Weekly Newsletter Volume VI, Issue XX-XI August 5, 2007 Announcements Be sure and capitalize by using our Hedge Fund Manager as your very own personal investment coach! Now included with your Classic or Pro subscription, you may speak directly with Mr. Gilbert J. Arevalo, President & Chief Hedge Fund Strategist, Xxxxxxx Capital Management by simply calling his personal line at (cell) XXX.XXX.XXXX to get your investments back on track - FAST!! The market fell into a correction during the prior week. As the market weakened, big price drops accompanied stocksâ increased volatility. The broad indexes reversed lower several times, closing at the bottom of their intraday ranges. Stocks bounced back Monday staging a lukewarm rebound after two straight high-volume declines. Big price drops in rapid volume cast the market into a correction the previous week. Ideally youâd like to see the market stage a powerful rebound in robust volume in response to that kind of pronounced selling. After a heartening opening Tuesday, a late slide turned stocks south and closed lower. With a dramatic selling deluge on the close, a number of leading stocks were dragged down in the process. Volume rose on both exchanges. Tuesdayâs decline established new near-term lows for the Dow and Nasdaq. We currently are in "Stop Losses" mode, a change in our Market Direction call enacted Thursday, 26-Jul-2007. We are now looking for a move that would signal a follow-through. Not every follow-through day triggers a new rally, though. You also want to see top-rated stocks notching gains in robust volume, or breaking out of bases. Without that leadership, a rally can often lack the fuel to keep going for long. On that front the news wasnât great. The IBD 100, a proxy for the action of top-rated stocks, fell 0.8% Tuesday. More troubling was the action of institutional-quality stocks. Some leaders that had held up during the marketâs recent struggles took a hit Tuesday. Negative action from Apple and some other big-name techs took a bite out of the Nasdaq 100. That index slid 2.1%, slicing through its 50-day moving average for the first time since April 2. continued...
The market shifted toward the biggest, bluest of the big-cap names at the expense of smaller companies, as stocks closed a volatile session with a positive reversal Wednesday. Stocks again traded in an uneven pattern Thursday, as another round of late-day gains lifted stocks fueled by a final-hour surge that sent the major indexes into the black. The marketâs stronger finishes were an encouraging sign. But donât get ahead of yourself. For now the best course of action remains the same. Reduce your exposure by getting off margin. Sell your laggard stocks, both the ones that are down from your buy price and those that have managed only meager gains. Remember that every stock eventually will get hit if a correction lasts long enough - even those with the strongest fundamentals and the most robust technical action. A fresh round of credit market fears whacked stocks Friday, sending the major indexes down sharply in broad selling. The Nasdaq dived 2.5%, the Dow industrials 2.1%. The S&P 500 plunged 2.7%, the NYSE composite 2.6%, as both those indexes sliced through their 200-day moving averages. Volume swelled across the board, adding another round of distribution to a market beset by selling lately. Fridayâs action confirmed what has been evident for more than a week: The market is in a correction. The safest place to be during a market correction is in cash and out of stocks. Taking stock of your capital and your confidence levels can help inform your decisions. If you want to hold, make sure youâre only doing so with the highest-quality stocks. But even highly-rated stocks have had a tough time holding up under the marketâs increasing pressure - with fear sending stocks tumbling. If a winner flashes sell signals - it might make sense to take profits off the table, rather than watch your gains wither away. The best way to navigate this kind of market is also the best way to navigate any market condition: exercise discipline - WHICH YOU WILL LEARN as a member of XXXXXXX Xxxxxxx Xxxxxxxx Xxxxxxxxx! If youâre a novice covered call writer, check out our two exhaustive Training Seminar series' at XxxxxxxXxxxxxx.com, and learn more about mastering a set of proper covered call buy and sell rules. Even if youâre a veteran trader, a refresher course is a good idea. Even the most successful investors make their share of mistakes! At Xxxxxxx Xxxxxxx, we lay out multiple strategies for coping with a declining stock or market correction. Youâll also find tips on how to spot a follow-through day, so you can be ready to buy with each market recovery. No time like the present, so GET ON BOARD TODAY and begin afresh to learn how to manage your money like a pro! Simply follow along with each and every trade made in our stellar portfolios and you too, will soon understand how and why we do what we do - and reap the financial benefits of a lifetime! You may not be aware of it, but the individual investor is hard-pressed TO MAKE ANY KIND OF MONEY with his or her investments. I'm not talking about the occasional hit or home-run, but over any multi-year period (more than one) - even the seasoned pro will likely fall short of the major averages. With the close of 2006, we at XxxxxxxXxxxxxx.com are very pleased to have afforded our members with 25.5% and 34.2% year-to-date gains, from trades made in our respective Classic and Pro Funds. Only by following ALL OF OUR MOVES in and out of the stock market and covered call positions, will you be able to FULLY UNDERSTAND how we have outperformed in the past! Study ALL of our Performance Charts to gain a perspective on how we handle both favorable and untenable market periods. Learn how to grow your funds EXPONENTIALLY - AND TO KEEP YOUR LOSSES TO A MINIMUM! In 2006 we avoided major losses to our Funds by side-stepping the onslaught of the year's 15% correction from the Nasdaq. Then we successfully phased into high-yielding covered call positions - just days after the Stock Market bottom. OUR FUNDS MOVED UP 45% IN JUST SIX MONTHS! At XxxxxxxXxxxxxx.com we do exactly what we say, year-in and year-out. Substantial gains in 2007 are VERY PROBABLE - so Get on board TODAY! Glimpse at a recent snapshot of our "Pro" Model Portfolio and updated Performance Charts; Pro Fund and Pro Fund vs Nasdaq and see that our covered call training services are unrivalled in the industry! Week in Review: Market Analysis The major market indexes delivered a modest reply to last weekâs sell-off, grabbing some price gains in lower volume Monday. The stock market started the day lower. But the Nasdaq rebounded to close up 0.8%. The Dow industrials rose 0.7%, the S&P 500 1%, the NYSE composite 1.2%. Volume receded across the board. Although volume waned, the major indexes did recover Monday after hitting new near-term lows in the morning. While it was encouraging to see the stock market firm up after a tough start, you never know how deep or long a correction may progress. Let the market itself answer that question. Elsewhere, Treasury prices fell, hoisting the yield on the 10-year note up to 4.81% from 4.75% on Friday. Investors rushed into the bond marketâs safe haven in the previous week amid stocksâ sharp decline. A fresh round of worries over the faltering credit market sent stocks reversing sharply lower Tuesday, dragging down a number of leading stocks in the process. The Nasdaq gapped up at the opening bell and was up 0.9% about 30 minutes into the session. But that rally proved short-lived: Selling intensified as the day wore on, as volume swelled across the board. The technology-laden index closed down 1.4%, at the bottom of its intraday range. The major NYSE indexes showed similar action. Mortgage lender American Home Mortgage Investment fanned the marketâs credit fears, saying its borrowing pipeline had dried up and that it was considering liquidating assets. The stock, already in a nose dive this year, crashed 90% in gigantic volume. A late-day reversal hoisted stocks into the black Wednesday, with the Dow leading the way. Buoyed by a big reversal in the sessionâs final minutes, the industrial average finished up 1.1%. The S&P 500 gained 0.7%, the NYSE composite 0.2%. The Nasdaq rose 0.3%. Nasdaq volume picked up compared with Tuesdayâs level, while NYSE volume eased. Wednesdayâs action continued the marketâs recent volatile trend. The Dow swung from positive to negative multiple times during the day before jumping back above break-even late in the day. That index ultimately bagged the biggest gain, as investors moved into blue chips. Top-rated stocks didnât benefit from bargain huntersâ late surge. The IBD 100 picked up just 0.1%, which wouldnât be surprising if program trading was indeed behind the last-minute buying binge as some on the Street speculated. Meanwhile, the CBOE volatility index, or VIX, spiked briefly to 26.22, its highest level since April 2003. The put-call ratio, which measures the amount of bearish puts vs. bullish calls bought by options traders, hit 1.26. Stocks notched their second-straight gain in lighter volume, Thursday. Even still, at XxxxxxxXxxxxxx.com we train members to exercise patience. Donât try to anticipate a market upturn or a follow-through before it happens. Let the price and volume action of the major indexes and leading stocks guide your hand. Follow their lead, instead of trying to predict what they might do. continued...
Concerns about the subprime mortgage market and tighter credit standards continue weighing on Wall Street. Thursday, Accredited Home Lenders warned it may go out of business. Shares plunged 35%. Its acquisition by buyout firm Lone Star is now in doubt. Week in Review: Market Analysis (cont.) Subprime fears triggered another stock market sell-off on Friday. By dayâs end, the major indexes closed at the bottom of the dayâs trading ranges, with heavy losses. Early, moderate declines snowballed into big losses, with an especially nasty close. Initially stocks were dragged lower partly by news that Standard & Poorâs cut Bear Stearnsâ long-term credit outlook following the investment bankâs hedge fund problems. Then, in a conference call with analysts around 2 p.m. EDT, Bear Stearns CFO Sam Molinaro called the troubles in the credit market the worst heâd seen in 22 years. The market turned sharply lower after headlines from that call came out. If you decide to hold onto a stock or two, itâs best if you take a stand with elite, institutional-quality issues. However, when a market correction lasts long enough, it can eventually take a bite out of every leading stock. Over the past two weeks, more and more top-rated stocks have fallen in sharp volume. Credit card issuer MasterCard swooned, dropping 8% in brisk trade. A highly liquid leader that bagged big price gains earlier this year, MasterCard has plunged lately, slicing through its 50-day moving average Wednesday and continuing lower. Itâs now 25% off its July 13 high. Stocks suffered a third straight week of losses. The Nasdaq tumbled 2%, while the S&P 500 lost 1.8%. The Dow slipped just 0.6% as big investors looked for shelter in the biggest blue chips. Thereâs a reason XxxxxxxXxxxxxx.com pays such close attention to a stockâs price action and its volume â one rarely goes far without the other. And when prices make big moves without supporting volume, or volume spikes without price gains coming along, thatâs often a sign of trouble. With routine precision by side-stepping the heavy losses incurred by most, we have once again preserved most all of our sizeable compounded annual gains. Where would your net worth be had you grown your funds exponential returns year-after-year? We are now looking for a the Stock Market to follow-through on a new rally with big-money institutional investors jumping in to buy shares.. No market rally has ever started without a follow-through. Just be aware that not every follow-through kick-starts a new rally. It is imperative that you cut your losses short. Never let a stock fall much beyond your stop-loss target. At XxxxxxxXxxxxxx.com, our members are given a well-thought out, proven method for minimizing losses after ramping up heady gains. Selling quickly lets you preserve your capital for new buys. It also helps you maintain your confidence by avoiding crushing losses. Meanwhile, DON'T IGNORE YOUR WATCHLIST. Keep your watchlist fresh to find the best opportunities for your cash. With each market follow-through to a new rally, new leaders typically emerge from consolidated bases. Delete companies that have broken down. Look for stocks with superior fundamentals that are making calmer corrections. Also remember that the next wave of market leadership may not resemble the last rallyâs. Rather than guess, wait for the leadership to develop on its own. 2006 ENDED WITH DOUBLE DIGIT GAINS FOR THE MAJOR INDEXES. Growth investors needed extreme discipline to pocket gains in â06, though. In good markets and bad, smooth markets and choppy ones, following a strict set of buy and sell rules is the best way to maximize gains and limit losses. We provide complete covered call investment training to help you get your funds back on track! Weekly Trades Xxxxxxx Xxxxxxx Classic Covered Call Fund This past week, our Classic Fund slipped 0.85%. Thus far in 2007, the fund is still up 3.93%, and is currently 0% vested. For all of 2006 our non-margin fund SWELLED 25.64%. On the year, it outperformed the Nasdaq by 15.93%, the Dow by 9.17% and the S&P 500 by 11.84! We have called EVERY MARKET BOTTOM...within days! See our Past Performance Charts. Get in on the ground floor, since over time - we have never been outperformed!!! Xxxxxxx Xxxxxxx Pro Covered Call Fund Our "limited"-margin fund - which closed 2006 at an ALL-TIME HIGH, fell 1.48% on the week. In 2007 the fund is now off 0.70%. Currently our premier fund is now off margin and is 6.5% vested. Our Pro Fund again performed especially well this past year - SURGING 34.17% for all of 2006! Xxxxxxx Xxxxxxx finished 2006 with our Pro Fund having outperformed the Nasdaq BY A WHOPPING 24.65%, the Dow by 17.88% and the S&P 500 by 20.55%! 2007 will likely once again afford members the opportunity to "enhance" our funds with margin-trading! NO TIME LIKE THE PRESENT to take advantage of all our Services - and reap the financial benefits of a lifetime! Comments from the CEO Amidst all this, Xxxxxxx Xxxxxxx continues to be a shining example of how to navigate through treacherous market conditions. First off, we sell covered calls - that's all we do! By accurately moving back into stocks just days after the bottom of last year's market correction - and February's sharp decline, we've racked up heady gains with relative ease. If you have been following in step with our Hedge Fund Manager, you are now well ahead of the game. Just one look at our Performance Charts and it's easy to see why Xxxxxxx Xxxxxxx Xxxxxxxx Xxxxxxxx...IS HOME OF THE BEST-PERFORMING INVESTMENT FUNDS on the planet! The price and volume action of the major indexes and the action of leading stocks are the strongest of indicators. Based on those standards, the market has struggled lately. The indexes have breached key support levels such as their 50-day moving averages. Multiple down days in elevated volume have dragged the market lower. A number of top-rated stocks have suffered damage. Earnings reports have proven especially treacherous. Companies that have missed their targets have seen big price drops in huge volume. Small-cap stocks as a whole have had a real tough time. The Russell 2000 index has turned negative for the year following its recent struggles. The small-cap S&P 600 has fallen further than its bigger-cap counterparts, slicing through its 200-day moving average the previous week. The marketâs correction will give many stocks a chance to digest big run-ups forged earlier this year. Keep a close eye on those stocks that set up in new price patterns or find support at key levels such as the 50-day line. Relative strength during a rough period often is a good predictor of future success for a stock when the market eventually turns for the better. Many of these lessons CAN ONLY BE LEARNED AT Xxxxxxx Xxxxxxx Training Institute! Watch and learn as our Hedge Fund Manager demonstrates "LIVE" these proven methods in our Covered Call Funds. To get "An Overview of This Website" see FREE Training Seminar 1. Once again our Covered Call Investment Strategy reigned supreme - easily handing our members handsome 25.5% and 34.2% annual gains in our respective Classic and Pro Funds for all of 2006! If your investment methods have left you helpless, DON'T GIVE UP! Xxxxxxx Xxxxxxx Xxxxxxx Xxxxxxx will give you what you want - to get your money back on track in a seamless and timely manner. Spend time with us and be encouraged that we know best how to grow your accounts with our Historical Averages. We have yet to see a better-performing investment fund! We offer complete investment training direct from our Hedge Fund Manager. This unique "hands-on" training approach is designed to transform the individual investor into a seasoned professional (or at least get your returns consistent with ours) - within months! Simply go to XXxxxxxXXxxxxx.com and SUBSCRIBE to our Free Trial today. Watch and learn how to manage out-sized returns on a consistent basis as we grow our funds at XxxxxxxXxxxxxx.com - the world's only "LIVE" covered call fund! In keeping with ET policy I removed any business name or Url's. These postings are simply a journal or log to see if my basic premises - when adhered to, can produce ANY results deemed of value by the investment community. Or to perhaps improve upon them in hopes that future prospective business plans can be enacted. Paysense
Trades 53 Profitable 26 Losses 27 Win % 49.1% Cumu $ ($9,915) after typical commission ($12,745) Avg Win $2,402 Avg Loss $2,680 Profit Factor 0.9:1 Compound Annual % -39.3% over 74 days Sharpe Ratio -1.502 Max Drawdown 23.01% (20070530 to 20070807)
My win/loss ratio sucks because C2 makes me "leg into" spread and buy-write trades. The short sells subsequently are deemed as losses, when in fact these are for the most part successful trades. Collective2 hasn't taken any action over the years to properly account for these types of trades. More glaring is my 9% loss over 2+ months. I am however almost 20% up from my low - all done very recent. I can honestly say 10% of my drawdown was due to easily corrected errors on my part - that won't likely show up again as severe. WOTM Index Spread trades in the QQQ, DJX and perhaps soon the RUT have helped with my recent gains (off the lows). More importantly, once this Stock Market "bottom" to the correction is targeted, most gains in my funds will occur. You see...with this strategy, gains that mostly come from covered calls will NOT happen until we are back in an uptrend. However with a prolonged correction, weak managers will pullback or be eliminated - thereby enabling me to outperform (and perhaps make some gains). I know most new or 'weak' traders get excited about taking a small account and finding some "winning" system to throw their money into - subsequenly I am currently deemed a real loser (didn't run my account straight up for 3 months with option or leveraged "winning" trades to prove to all how GREAT I am). I am in with what works for the long-haul. 50%+ gains compounded on average throughout multi-year periods with little time, effort or risk. I am on track Paysense
That implies that your actual max drawdown was 29% and not 23% as C2 reports. Hmmm. Is that suppose to reassure people that seek you out for your sage advice?
No, no, no. C2 reprorted drawdown "correctly" at 23% with one "leg" of my DJX spread tread quoted from 'last trade' or 20 minutes before the market close (the other leg was quoted close to the close) - hence an addition 3-4% "drawdown"! That is why my equity curve is so sharp at recent low. Of course this came back into align with the first trades the next day...but $1.30 reported as $1.55 at 150 contracts cost me almost 4% of my drawdown. So calculate it...23% DD or 23k off 100k rises to 90k. 13/77=.1688 or 16.88% off the lows in 2 days. This was done in a very low risk manner. I initiated "spread" trades on indexes when the DJIA (or QQQ) moved higher up in its trading range. The strikes were selected ABOVE strong overhead resistance and were in keeping with my bias that since the 24th and 26th of July - we are in a correction. In other words it may take great strength for the indexes to find a bottom, move far enough up to break through resistance and close ITM by next Friday. The prices for these trades - with the recent retesting of lows - are now practically FULLY REALIZED. So the win (even though reported by C2 as 50%) is almost 100%. You are right, of course and I am unworthy. Paysense