Managing Funds for a Living

Discussion in 'Professional Trading' started by paysense, May 18, 2007.

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  1. but that is ok. Many views dictate that (aside from ranting babblings) something of value may unfold.

    Talk to me in 3 months OK, ok.

    You are wrong in that there is much I've learned;)
     
    #241     Jun 16, 2007
  2. Here is what I see and (for now) that has got to be all that really matters:

    (1) Take a look at my performance page at my site.

    (2) The (what I call) risk has not much changed year to year and is in keeping QUITE LOW for the (a) outperformance against the averages (b) seemingly staying in-line with previous year(s) performance.

    (3) What is here called DD (drawdowns) or losses are minimized during downturns.

    (4) True, everything I have devised to perform as such has been with smaller account and with 'real-time' postings at site and emailed to subscribers.

    (5) These same results will be seen by anyone interested.

    (6) If you are not interested - go away.

    (7) If you think you have offered some good input, go back and read it and re-evaluate it to see if it should be deemed as such.

    (8) Realize that for me - if I continue to hit ALL my targets (contained within ranges)...and I will...I've beaten up just about everything.

    (9) So until we get a black-and-white comparson over 8 years that supercedes these near constant results - you got nothing.

    (10) WE WON'T KNOW UNTIL SOME TIME GOES BY IF ALL (WITHIN RANGES) OF THE ABOVE IS MET SO CHILL WITH ANYTHING YOU MIGHT TRY TO LEND BECAUSE IT CONTINUES TO BE OF NO USE TO ME.

    (11) Know that I am an open person, but have limitations to being tried as well.

    (12) I really don't want to address what we all know isn't in keeping with the real value stated above.

    (13) AND if you don't see it...it is OK, in time a picture will show all so STOP and give due where credit is due (I at least got my goals right) and if you can't be like the wise masses...contain yourself and stay in the background.

    (14) Who knows...I might just do what I say - in fact you may know that I will. And what I say may be entirely what overshadows 99% of what we'll ever see.

    (15) Don't you find it odd that no one has said...Gil you are wrong, there are low risk, high average annual returns done and being done over mid- to long term periods and here I can show you. AND in fact what you have and are stacking up as goals really aren't as such because of this (presentable) clear point I can show you. No one has even come close to attempting this, yet.

    (16) So if you were me you'd agree that the rest is mostly worthless at this juncture.

    (17) Be pleasantly surprised. Think that these goals may be met. Know that if this is the case when it is actually seen in black-and-white it will take on an even more astounding meaning. And start thinking like me how to improve on further goals (after C2 audit), establishing success with rel. small account, and think about how to secure for clients most of the returns through tax strategies, liquidity issues that may need to be engineered around. NOT industry standards, knowing the greeks, knowing him or her that can tell you but aren't listening, who care, etc.

    (18) Now who is really not listening?

    Lastly, because I do have a life I need to live, I'll say this. In my mind 3-9 months is a very short while away. If all I can do is grow money 25-35% above what the Nasdaq does EACH YEAR with very little time or effort, I will not only be able to reach the monetary goals...but I can reach my much more personal goals in using these funds. I'm sorry if the rest has not presented itself as much for me to take (much) notice - OR FOR THAT MATTER IF MINE IS NOT TOTALLY UP TO SNUFF...but I am on everyone's side.Ga

    I just wish they'd lend credence in the other direction or bridle until some time goes by if not able to be supportive now.pS

    Anyone can scream like an idiot - I really am not trying to be as such. Please believe me I really am not trying to be as such. Don't take all this so much that I get bent and write all this. I am behind (as always) on the work and services I have to (timely) provide. I'd do the same for you - or whoever this reading applies.:)
     
    #242     Jun 16, 2007
  3. ...perhaps.

    I use these charts to verify all is on track.

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    Syllabus:

    The last 52 weeks (this past year) ~50%.
    Things have been tough YTD, but with uptrend past returns are retained AND higher highs and higher lows - in keeping with up market is intact.

    Volatility is more than index - but I am managing a 4-6 position portfolio, and am confortable doing such with a larger account.
    Why? Look at bar chart. Not that risky looking (despite some DD) and imagine left numbers larger $$ - still look great.

    Now I've said I look forward to the market removing the froth (ie correcting) since that's where most easy gains are made (off the bottom).

    Also...If the (my) last market top (call) was wrong (it was) and incurred limited (see Naked Option = $$$ thread) although significant loss...this can only be compared after adding all attempts after one year 2-4 will be right out of 5 or 6. Add this to the CC gains and then lets compare notes.

    Also...investors will be pleased to see 1998 then see now...then see (mailed) statements to the affect that 10% DD (max) once or twice a year contrasted with hefty 50%+ advance in funds is acceptable - especially when they can count on 30% outperformance versus anything the Nasdaq does in the next ten years.

    Lastly note...recent burp by market (and pasts) are entirely acceptable versus what joe guru is doing for them. (re: shocking statements) Now stop gil.i did.ok.

    OH and remember these charts will correlate with C2 in time as the same trades made here are done at C2.

    Purpose for all this is in keeping with ET policy. One day constructive ideas will be engaged in pursuit of the possible attainment of further goals (not the near-term subscriptions) and my site url I leave out. You go figure or PM me.

    These charts really do unfold as such with each passing week. So you are right, I am wrong, your are dead wrong, and so have I been and all is good and we keep learning and one day soon much may be. I admit...I babble! So sue me...but don't judge me!!

    im awake r u, ni(pS)te -
     
    #243     Jun 16, 2007
  4. Sunday's paper arrives on time. Just some excerpts without the URL's, etc.

    Weekly Newsletter

    Previous to last week, the major indexes had produced their worst showing since the Nasdaq’s March 21 follow-through day kicked off a new rally. One or more of the broad gauges flashed distribution days or heavy selling for three straight sessions — Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

    A week ago Friday brought a big bounce off the 50-day moving average for the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and NYSE composite — but in weaker volume. Monday’s weak rally try confirmed a lack of buying conviction among big-money investors. Tuesday’s distribution day made it eight for the Nasdaq, six for the NYSE composite and five for the Dow and S&P 500 in recent weeks. The market’s rally remained under pressure, as indicated by our June 7, 2007 change in our Market Direction call to "Caution".

    The action still didn't warrant panic. Leading stocks held their own. Institutional favorites such as Apple, Research In Motion, MasterCard and others were showing scant signs of damage - despite the broad market’s rough sledding. A closer look at individual stocks showed the rally’s leaders holding up well, or in some cases building on their gains.

    Stocks sank in heavy trade on Tuesday as higher bond yields pressured stocks. The yield on the 10-year note had rocketed to 5.30% from 5.15%. That marked the fourth decline in higher volume for the market in the previous six sessions. As for the market itself, some perspective was in order.

    With that said, you can be more aggressive in selling lesser stocks. If a stock you bought weeks ago has made little or no price progress, chuck it. When markets eventually turn back up, you’ll have cash free to buy something better. And as always, if a stock falls to your stop-loss target, sell immediately.

    On Wednesday the major market indexes rallied back from Tuesday’s sell-off, helped by better-than-expected May retail sales and a decline in bond yields, which hit a five-year high the day before. The S&P 500 surged 1.5%, and the NYSE composite 1.4%, though on lighter trade.

    Both indexes bounced off their 50-day moving averages to close at session highs. Advancing issues easily beat decliners. The Nasdaq composite gained 1.3%, also on a slight drop involume. The Dow, up 1.4%, saw its biggest one-day point gain since July 19, 2006.

    A tame core inflation reading triggered a second straight day of gains for the stock market, Thursday. But lighter volume again took away some of the rally’s luster. That marked the second straight time that stocks had notched sizable gains in weaker trade. Ideally you’d like to see stocks surge in heavy volume, and occasionally pull back in lighter turnover. That lack of a buying burst left our Market Direction outlook unchanged, with the rally still under pressure.

    Despite the market’s uncertainty, the broad indexes hadn’t suffered much damage. They pulled back no more than 3% off their 52-week highs before bouncing back. All four found support at or above their 50-day moving averages as well.

    Stocks extended their gains for their third straight session Friday - putting the market’s rally back on course, as they got a boost from lower-than-expected core CPI data. The Nasdaq composite gapped up at the open and rallied 1.1% to a six-year closing high on heavier volume.

    Friday’s gains in higher volume marked a change of course for the market. On Wednesday and Thursday, stocks bagged sizable gains but in lighter trade. Gains in higher volume typically point to greater interest by big-money institutional investors - a must for a rally to succeed. With the rally back on track, Friday's Trading Journal entry notes the change in Market Direction from Caution back to Green Light.
     
    #245     Jun 18, 2007
  5. Stocks notched broad gains in higher volume Friday. The Nasdaq closed up 1.1%. The Dow climbed 0.6%, the S&P 500 0.7% and the NYSE composite 0.9%. Volume vaulted 41% on the NYSE, 27% on the Nasdaq.

    Friday’s rally included a strong showing among small-cap stocks. The S&P 600 motored 1.2%. A bevy of highly-rated midcap stocks sprung out of short consolidations. MasterCard, a larger institutional favorite, bolted 5% to reach an all-time high.

    Another round of tame economic data helped stoke the rally. The consumer price index rose 0.7% in May, topping estimates. But the core CPI, which strips out food and energy prices, climbed just 0.1%, below views. That reading echoed Thursday’s core PPI data. It also helped calm the inflation fears that gripped investors and briefly cast the market’s rally into doubt.

    The yield on the benchmark 10-year note sank to 5.15% from 5.22% Thursday, after surging to 5.30% earlier in the week. On the futures market, the probability of a Fed interest-rate hike fell to 12% from 24% Thursday. The ebbing inflation fears fueled a brisk rally for the week. The Nasdaq advanced 2.1%. The NYSE composite added 1.9%, the S&P 500 1.7% and the Dow 1.6%.

    We now look for the market to continue to rally, with big-money institutional investors jumping in to buy shares. Without their support, price gains don’t mean much. For now, keep TIGHT STOP-LOSSES AND your watchlist fresh to find the best opportunities for your cash. As the market rallies on, new leaders typically emerge from consolidated bases.

    Recent market jitters had put investors on edge. If you own a batch of high-quality stocks however, it’s unlikely that you saw any major losses. Many leading issues have pulled back from their recent highs. But few have shown major problems, such as a gap-down on heavy volume or a violent breach of a key support level. At the same time, there was little reason to be making new buys.

    During periods of uncertainty, it is best to wait for the indexes to reassert themselves with price gains in convincing volume before building your portfolio back up. Friday’s gains in higher volume marked a change of course for the market.

    The day’s action did come with a caveat: quadruple-witching options expiration, an event that can lift volume totals. But the market had multiple other factors working in its favor. The major indexes scored solid price gains. The Nasdaq hit a multi-year peak. Other indexes closed just short of new highs.

    The action of leading stocks further underscored the market’s strength. The IBD 100 galloped 1.5%. That marked the third straight time that the qauge of top stocks had outperformed the broad S&P 500. Friday’s Market Direction call reflects the market’s change of course, with the market back in a confirmed rally. That means investors can resume looking for new buys.

    But don’t turn overeager. Target only top-quality stocks. Buy only as stocks break out of well-formed bases or cross secondary buy points in robust volume. It’s better to own a few top-tier leaders rather than dilute your portfolio with a mess of low-grade stocks. If you botch a buy, cut your losses quickly. Ditch laggard stocks that aren’t working. Look for chances to add shares to strong, winning positions. Following a sound set of buy and sell rules is the hallmark of successful investing in any market climate.Ps:cool:
     
    #246     Jun 18, 2007
  6. You got to learn to write in short bursts here.

    Or at least give a Cliff Notes version, too many words without substance. Cut to the chase.
     
    #247     Jun 18, 2007
  7. He blinds you with verbosity. ENCY down 43% today. Good call Gilberto.
     
    #248     Jun 18, 2007
  8. Paysense,

    Its obvious that the folks on this website are not big fund traders. The vast majority are just a bunch of guys on personal computers at home or some young 20-somethings who work at a bucket shop.

    If you want to work for the big boys, then you should visit their websites. On many of them, it gives a profile of who they typically hire which is some young guy that has a golden resume.

    I dont believe that anyone has every gotten hired to a fund from a log or blog of their exploits daytrading on their home computer.

    In any event, I truly believe NYC is the place to start such a search for what you want...
     
    #249     Jun 18, 2007
  9. Yeah, this cat michael has the hookup. Listen to his sage-advice.
     
    #250     Jun 18, 2007
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