That kind of thing worked well when Weinstein used it--kind of like the 200-day MA when Trader Vic first talked about it. Starting in the early 90s, enough people started using software (dial-up with EOD back then) that markets got much choppier and whipsawing ruined most simple trend-following. I ran a back test with a 7-month (similar to 30 week) MA traded on an end-of-week basis and it underfperformed the S&P 500 pretty badly since 1994. 7.32% for SPY vs. 10.37% for buy/hold and a 38% max drawdown vs. 50% for buy-and-hold. It underperformed according to Sharpe and Sortino ratios. Having said that, I'd think a trend-following system with daily entries/exits would probably get whipsawed much worse. With a lot of work, you might design one that does well in backtests but I think it would fall apart in real time.
First, try teaching them. See what kind of response you get. Failing that, set up a trust fund for each of them and maybe ur grandkids if you have any. You can't control what they'll do with their inheritance. People are going to do what they want to do. I definitely recommend spending a good chunk of the cash while you're still here on earth. Do some things that you love.
you can’t really control what they do with the money. They will forge their own path. Hopefully it will lead to substantial amounts of riches. and either way, it’s not your burden to bear. Enjoy your retirement. You’ve earned it.
I have been really impressed with the sincerity and the graciousness of all you guys that have responded. It does really make ET feel like the family of sorts that it was intended to be. If fact the advice you guys have given me sound a lot like my own kids. "Quit wasting your time trying to daytrade, quit worrying about our inheritance and spend some money." I want to be fair to my kids here as they have created some wealth on their own. It just creates a new kind of problem when some of that turns into cash. I am a stubborn ole coot and may still try my idea of trying to beat the S&P 100 by using only a portion of the 100 stocks. The pressure is off because you have given me a 100% expectancy of failure so what have I got to lose. If I do this, I will make it an ET Journal and ya'all can raz me about my craziness. When I golf I love to "trash talk" so I can take it as well.
There is an ETF for those who want to own the S&P 100. The symbol is OEF. It's been around for many years, and it has some volume and liquidity. But there is no liquidity in the options associated with it. BMK
You seem like a nice man. Your thinking is dangerous as it your children's thinking. They should all have PPLI policies (i recommend Lombard International) and invest into an Insurance Dedicated Fund of Funds on their platform. Highly diversified, no taxes, asset protection, ability to borrow against the policy and if structured within a Trust, comes out Estate tax free. Make 10% per year with no K-1s and set it and forget it with some of the best hedge funds in the world. Don't try to reinvent the wheel. You are an outsider and so are your children. People who make money on Wall Street are about 100x ahead of you and your kids. They have done and seen every iteration of opportunity there is and they have the goods. It's like playing golf against Tiger Woods. Pay him to play for you.
To the OP. I feel your pain. I am in a similar situation with my daughter. My publishing business pays out royalties for the rest of my life plus 70. If she had any interest to nurture the business (she would have to add public domain books as they come out every year). Unless she would manage/update the portfolio of books (now in hundreds), the business likely would wither away or stay stagnant. Do I worry? No. It upsets me but I cannot control my daughter and force her to do something with her life. My wife will survive me but she is not skilled to do this either.