Making trading calls is futile imo

Discussion in 'Trading' started by themickey, Aug 8, 2024.

  1. themickey

    themickey

    There are yet more 'times'.......
    There is 'tick tock' time as in eg 1:00pm
    There is calendar time (date) as in eg 15th August.
    There is lookback time as in eg 52 weeks or 20 days as in found moving averages or a rolling 5 day week or 22 day rolling month etc.
     
    #31     Aug 12, 2024
  2. schizo

    schizo

    Well, it's kinda pointless to even argue with you on this.

    Sure, time is a complete figment of imagination but we still need to get up to go to work by 9, and step into a meeting by 10, then run out to meet a client by 11 and take your kid out to lunch at noon, blah blah blah.

    BTW money is just a piece of useless paper. Yeah, knock yourself out on that one. :)
     
    #32     Aug 12, 2024
    MarkBrown likes this.
  3. schizo

    schizo

    Why not also include those times when you need to step aside to defecate in peace? ;)
     
    #33     Aug 12, 2024
  4. themickey

    themickey

    upload_2024-8-12_15-49-27.jpeg
    Yup there is that too.
     
    #34     Aug 12, 2024
    schizo likes this.
  5. I'd say a great trend following system (which gets in early and gets out late) is the superior trading system. Especially if it can recognize range bound behavior and can sideline then in order to not get chopped up as most trend following systems invariably do in range bound conditions.

    The ultimate trading system would be one that exploits both trends and ranges. Let's call it the holy grail. Anyone who have something like that would obviously not need anything else. :)

    Now, back to predictive modeling or statistical TA if we can call it that instead.

    What I do know is that my system allows me to perceive and analyze the markets in a way that's literally impossible if your only input is a chart or an indicator reading. I spent probably 5+ years developing it and it's still a work in progress, as unlike Mickey Mouse, I won't claim to have all the answers. Best to keep an open mind, stay humble and keep learning.

    For today, barring any news shocks (ME, etc.), I know that today will most likely see a medium/large rally on the US indices (ES/NQ). This was known before the Globex Open and posted elsewhere in advance (ES-Journal). I like 5400/5410 as an initial target on ES with the possibillity it just keeps going.

    What I don't know is if we'd see a gap down or gap up open on RTH, so my strategy for today was to long the Globex Open on small size in case the market ran straight out of the gate. I took a small loss on my initial entry and then went long again close to the swing low on both ES/NQ - still using small size, but have now added a bit to my original position on the way. I will add more contracts on the Open if the market acts as expected within my prediction.

    It now looks like a gap up open that will breakout higher. If I'm dead wrong (it's only probabilities, right), I won't lose much and may even secure a small win. If I'm right, it will be a massive pay day.

    PS: I don't heavily rely on charts per se, but I do of course use them. Mostly, I'm concerned with capturing the move from A to B. And there can be a ton of random zig zagging between the two.
     
    #35     Aug 12, 2024
    MACD and ironchef like this.
  6. Surely the bananas in your fridge don’t have a rate or decay. You eat your bananas Brown?
     
    #36     Aug 12, 2024
  7. MarkBrown

    MarkBrown

    to get back on track - a skilled trader will know what to do when he's right and more importantly what he will do if he's wrong - Prior to placing a trade.

    everything should be thought out in advance before it happens. this is genius.
     
    #37     Aug 12, 2024
    beginner66, themickey, MACD and 4 others like this.
  8. Good Morning Mark,

    You are correct

    The is the upmost important thing I work on in my trading. And it's a continuous process of planning and doing.

    And it's all fun.
     
    #38     Aug 12, 2024
    MarkBrown likes this.
  9. MACD

    MACD

    "The is the upmost important thing I work on in my trading. And it's a continuous process of planning and doing.

    And it's all fun." and Sure Enough @SimpleMeLike is on his road to $1,000,000 !
     
    #39     Aug 12, 2024
    SimpleMeLike likes this.
  10. Hello MACD,

    Yes sir, that is my goal man. A lot of work too. Currently in drawdown of $2200 today, so I have a lot of work to do the next hour of the ES market.

    I be back going get my losses back.
     
    #40     Aug 12, 2024