Making trading calls is futile imo

Discussion in 'Trading' started by themickey, Aug 8, 2024.

  1. I saw a service years ago... I think it's Wave 59 (still around, last I checked)... with the same premise. That is... It tracked 9 variables, and when 5 lined up bullish, that's a buy. When 5 lined up bearish, that's a sell. Problem.... it's slow... takes a while for enough of the indicators to "get over to one side of the boat". Other problem is that you had to use their data source for it to work.
     
    Last edited: Aug 9, 2024
    #21     Aug 9, 2024
    themickey likes this.
  2. MarkBrown

    MarkBrown

    mathematically it's possible to know with some certainty what paths, price will take.

    it's not easy because indicators have lag and time based data is a beast of it's own.
     
    #22     Aug 9, 2024
    TVIS likes this.
  3. themickey

    themickey

    Yeah, but you don't need indicators and if using PA then no lag.
    Nearly all TA is built on indicators and lag (ie) "react to price, don't predict."
    Now there is a certain amount of truth in "react" theory but a reaction can also be 1 minute for a long term swing trader not using (for simplicities sake) a 20 day moving average which has a ~10 day lag.
    So a 1 minute lag for a swing trader to react using no indicators is not imo really lagging.

    How is time based data a beast?
     
    #23     Aug 9, 2024
  4. MarkBrown

    MarkBrown

    zero lag - can be accomplished simply by using recent historical on current and future forming data.

    time based data - any analysis that involves time is false, as time is only mans way of trying to make sense of something he doesn't understand.

    Time is not real.
     
    #24     Aug 9, 2024
    HawaiianIceberg and Sekiyo like this.
  5. Nearly all TA is built on indicators? My goodness. The ignorance on display here is impressive.

    Obviously, the reason why some think prediction can't be done is because it's based on their own unsuccessful experience trying to do so. It's always good to keep an open mind as to what's possible and not.

    A predictive model obviously requires hard data and numbers (which is what charts are made of and not the other way around). Looking at a chart and 'guessing' based on price formations, memory or indicators may not be very smart and even dumb.
     
    #25     Aug 9, 2024
  6. themickey

    themickey

    There are more than one ways to skin a cat, I disagree 100%. :)
     
    #26     Aug 9, 2024
    MarkBrown likes this.
  7. padutrader

    padutrader

    i am one of them.... but it took me 18 years to find out what markets do ....AL Brooks said that market will markets try to do anything twice and if it fails then it will do the opposite.
    it took me 18 years to understand what he means and see it on a price time chart and make trading decisions and trade well.
    so it is not surprising that 99% of all financial market participants do not have a clue what is happening
     
    #27     Aug 11, 2024
  8. padutrader

    padutrader

    it is NOT price action but price and time action... both offers clues to the market action
     
    #28     Aug 11, 2024
    themickey likes this.
  9. schizo

    schizo

    Please elaborate on what you mean by "time action".

    Time can be broken down into two factors: 1) Timing the entries and exits and 2) the duration of price move. Here, #1 is already baked into price, while #2 is not (although I could argue that it is).

    Then there's 3) utilizing different time frames. But that's for another topic

    Needless to say, I'm glad you've made this discovery. This is not an easy concept to grasp. :)
     
    #29     Aug 11, 2024
  10. ironchef

    ironchef

    Do you need a predictive model to day trade if your strategy is trend following?
     
    #30     Aug 11, 2024