This very thread is futile, IMHO. Obviously, anyone who can't predict the markets will say they can't be predicted. So that's actually what the OP is saying and the only real meaning of this thread. Not long ago the OP also expressed a desire to teach random people to code in Excel for supplementary income. Makes you wonder...
From my perspective, it is vital to Know who YOU are! There are a few traders out there who do ok or at times even well with the stock markets. I am NOT that person. To me they are often the most irrational of all markets, and more like an exhausting high school popularity contest at times, complete with the social media BS, which I also ignore. For me, I do best with a few key commodities and currencies futures, and most days just ignore the rest. I started trading copper futures in late April. Have made 9 trades in that specialized arena, which I do study charts of diligently. 8 of them have been profitable. For now at least there is something about the Price Action there, at times, to where Clarity suddenly hits me hard, and I instantly come roaring out the bushes like a Lion and rip the throat out of the prey.
Trading isn’t calling the market. Give me 10,000 people and I’ll call the market correctly for 12 days in a row to 1 person. Then I’ll sell him a 10,000$ program. Of course trading is about risk, reward and probabilities. We can tell what we think is about to happen and we can position (or not) ourselves to maximize profit and minimize losses. Even delta neutral expresses a bias about the future. Betting on the narrowing of a spread is still speculating but with less risk (maybe). You don’t trade unless an expected profit is to be made. You expect to buy cheap and sell dearer. The quotation has to change. Arbitrage is the purest form of trading. Still you expect a lot with varying uncertainty. Shit can happen all the time. That’s why we have insurance. In trading, it can be as simple as a stop loss. People without good enough insurance against the uncertainty / risk blow up. Unfortunalety there’s no reward without risk. No free lunch.
Poor LF, can't get over the fact I had her blocked, poor girl gets very upset and continually gets her knickers in a twist. LMAO.
Thankfully "you don't need to know what is going to happen next to make money" - Mark Douglas. I'm not much of a fan of Mark Douglas. But he is correct on this statement. Can I predict price in the next 5 minutes, 5 hours, 5 days with 100% accuracy? No. Can I predict it at a rate far enough above 50% to indicate I have a statistically significant edge? Heck yeah, I can. My August win:loss ratio: I see a few guys posting in the ES Journal whose win rates are better than mine. 50% is low, much lower than what is possible.
The crux of the thread was not to be about predicting, reacting, or even about probabilities. The idea was about trading uncertainty and making trading calls was futile because it's often fleeting. One moment your call was right, next moment its wrong, then, hello, it's right again then wrong again...... If you stay in the position long enough, sooner or later you'll be right. Genuis!
Sounds just like Nick Shawn and his current trading style of trading extended price action, watch his ridiculous videos on YT, amazing that people are so stupid to pay him for trading advice, one guy admits to losing 180K and only left with 20K on the sell EURAUD recently.
That's why I decided to just post my trades in real time. No more of those "woulda, shoulda, or coulda" bullsh*t. But trading is damn hard! That's the first thing folks need to get through their thick skull.
The volatility of the past 5 trading days should prove to you that is doesn't matter. You have nothng to prove to others. Just navigate the 1,090 point swings in the Dow, and the 500 -point swigs in the Naz, as YOU SEE FIT! Post what you really FEEL!