Leaving aside the trades from the Open and the scale in at 0940 EST, 0945 and the Rev long at 0957, I do see the others as over-trading. Regarding the Open: Over the past few sessions my experience with early positioning at the Open based on rapid pressure changes has been positive. There are more scratches, but the reward so far has outweighed the risk. If there is no movement in the first few minutes, then one can just wait for the action to resolve and enter as per the normal plan. The over-trading is coming from poor trade management. Had I stuck to the guidelines for exits, I doubt whether I would be trying extended continuations or premature Reversals.
The decision to exit has to rely on the same principle as the entry, i.e. based on the LOLR. The markers to help frame the LOLR for exits are: DS Line - Marks Momentum Swing Highs/Lows - Marks short term S/R 50% level of minor and major swings - Broad measure of overall supply/demand balance 1. All exit decisions have to be made within the framework of these markers. Even if there is a strong conviction that the LOLR is changing adversely, price will have to pass through at least one of these markers before the trade can be exited. For example: A feeling that the recent fast sell down is climactic cannot lead to an exit unless price crosses the DS line, regardless of how extended the swing is or what the P/L is. I am not yet skilled enough to judge whether a move is climactic or not. 2. These markers help in determining the supply/demand balance, but they do not define it. If PA is meeting confirmed Resistance, as established by a re-test or thrust failure, then one does not have to wait for the trend to Reverse all the way to the 50% level, or even to the Swing High/Low before exiting the trade. Have the freedom to judge pressure but verify it with established markers. 3. There will be times when a good P/L position encounters a sudden strong V Reversal. Price barely crosses the DS line before it's below the 50% mark. These are exceptions. Such action should not lead to abandonment of exit guidelines. 4. Don't slice and dice how many contracts should have been exited at which marker. Get to robust before trying to optimize. 5. When in doubt about the LOLR, remember inbuilt bias and err on the side of letting the trade run. 6. Remember the ideal - Precise entries and robust exits.
Try to manage the trades without drawing the lines. And give the 1 period SMA suggestion a try, It helps to avoid getting out of trades too early. I am rewriting my plan based on what I am learning (that is why I am not posting on the journal), my main goal is to be able to get as much as i can from the trend days with the minimum ammount of trades, so far I have noticed than focusing on last swing breaks and >50% retracements would improve the trending positions.
Keep posting thoughts on the rewriting of your plan and the problems you are trying to solve. In my experience, such expression forces one to clearly define the problem, promotes accountability and increases the likelihood of being steered in the right direction before spending too much time up the wrong alley.
FT Day 35 Oct 10 R: 3164 R: 3179 S: 3160 S: 3148 Context: A steady climb back to the 64 level after yesterday's close. Price most recently in a narrow 4 point range, as the uptrend finds repeated R at 64. http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1381407521888.png
Review: Trade Management: Better performance in managing both entry levels as well as winning trades. Overtrading: Long at 0837 was late due to chasing once the best entry was missed. Hesitation: A good opportunity missed right at the open as price retraced on the 5s just before the upthrust. My attention was diverted by thoughts of managing the PM position should price move adversely. In this case, it would have been worth it to place a stop order below the SL to free up attention at the open. Failed Thrust entries: Short at 0853: Dramatic sell down of the BO attempt. The sell stop could have been placed closer to the boundary. Short at 0944: Need tighter entry level management for trades at extremes. The use of pre trade, in trade and pre exit checklists was positive. Next task is to add more detail to these checklists while making them easier to remember and mentally cycle through. http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1381425522303.png
game: You are trading very well. Thanks for sharing. I need to ask you a question: Why does your checklist let you long around 8:52 and short around 9:11? i bought ES at 9:04 the range top and sold ES at 9:11 the range bottom which i should not have taken. I am very curious the reasoning behind your two entries. Thank you.
Long at 0856 CST: The BO at 0853 showed signs of failure and price dropped a bit. However, it then turned and shot up again. I viewed this as renewed interest by traders in wanting to make a higher high. Since price did not do what was expected, the opposite position was taken in anticipation of trend continuation. This decision was made within the overall context of supply/demand balance. Note that price was still inside the DS line, meaning that the stride of the trend was intact. Also, the reversal of the BO failure is more than 50% of the drop, another clue indicating strength. Short at 0911 CST: Entry conditions for Reversal trade had been met. Price had crossed DS line and there had been a retest of R at 0904. Short could have been taken a point or so higher up, but the relatively fast pace and extent of PA between 81 and 87 indicated that demand was still dangerous and led me to wait for some more confirmation.
FT Day 35 Oct 11 R: 3214 R: 3208 R: 3202 S: 3192 S: 3177 (close to 50% of the drop from 3241 to 3110) Context: Price just above the 50% level of yesterday's high and ON low. A LH was made at 3202 but price failed to make a significant LL. Action is range bound with a slight drift to the downside. Price has recovered more than 50% of it's drop from Oct 7th. http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1381496280955.png