Making of a method

dow supp res

 

Thanks for sharing that ammo. A lot to think about. While our styles may be cosmetically different, I see that the underlying concepts are the same.

 

"Everyone can see the statistical patterns, and they are soon reflected in the betting line. The question is whether they represent signal or noise. Voulgaris forms hypotheses from his basketball knowledge so that he might tell the difference more quickly and accurately"

- The Signal and the Noise


Portraying price movement in a 18 min or 1min or 13s bar interval does not convert it's contents into noise. I used to think about noise as 'fluctuations'. I am beginning to see that Noise is merely incorrect understanding. The continuous nature of price means that causation is being reflected continuously. The thinking that truth can be bound in bar intervals is the Noise. The understanding that it is not so, is the Signal. The uncertainty is not in the price movement, but in the limits of my capability to understand it.

 

back to the fisherie comment , if you have a bias ,possibly an agenda for the people that own the fisherie, example was the 166.65=167 cleave, you can watch them coax it up there, they run it down, get people short ,,then run it up and get(retail) short covers to push it, stopping at overnite high, then get folks short again, then squeeze them and get them to push it higher, some times its obvious some times not, you need to see volume at intermediate high and low turns, if the volume spikes are only on the dips , bullish, watch the internals,just something to watch during noise or chop the example below is a weak one but it was a very dull day

 

uvol increases over dvol increases was rising slightly most of the day

 

The path has wound up to a small hill. A quick traverse brings me to a clearing in the woods. A vista of what lies ahead is offered. It is a wonderful feeling - this sense that the path is true.

I see glimpses of the merging between:

Price Action
Bayesian Thinking
Cognitive Biases
Process Over Outcome

These are my allies and they are plenty.

 

your mind is willing/able to connect a lot of dots and summarize, just suggesting you look at a different or larger subset of info while searching for dots to connect

 

If I may, there are many routes to success. Use only what and as much as you need to make a trading decision.

 

Follow the yellow Brickroad

 

Making our own trading method is very much important to get forward in the trading business on long run basis.