In real time, there is no daily midpoint since the initial supply line was broken. However, the swing high at 1520 is as good a re-entry point as any if one exited for some reason as it does not exceed the preceding swing high and the downtrend is intact.
The secondary reaction, or "test", was nothing to write home about occurring when it did. But price has bounced 20pts off the lower trendline, as has the ES. As anticipated. Whether or not the bounce will hold is not the point. What matters is the fact of it. Now one must decide what to do about it.
A further test drops below the level of the bounce off the lower trendline, then appears to find support at the April swing high, as the ES did yesterday before sinking to the level of its own lower trendline. Currently, however, the ES is holding above yesterday's low. Therefore, look for signs of a reversal in the NQ. If short, stay in. If not, stay out. For now.
ES holding, NQ not. Activity surprisingly tame given where these levels are. Stay short. Note: the September highs were also at these levels.
Prep: Price in the TR since the 1st. S1: 2735 (from 29th & PM) S2: 2722 R1: 2748 (from 28th & 29th) R: 2755 (Top of TR) Anticipating a range between 48 and 26. http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=137184884483.png Db - could I get some feedback on the 2nd long. My reasoning for taking it was: 1) Selling waves had become shorter 2) The RET bar at 0920 showed both a retest as well as a bring back by buyers 3) Although price had dropped sharp from 0914 and 0915, the buying prior to this drop was steady showing accumulation and interest by buyers. In general: At the end of the day, what should I keep in mind when assessing performance? I understand the day's trading should be judged by whether the process was followed. But what is the process? Looking back at my trading plan now, it seems that most of what is in there is just entry criteria. But over the past few days, I am realizing that entry criteria is just a small tactical part of the process. The S/R and context rich elements are the majority. How do I turn subjective elements of context into an objective criteria for process evaluation?
Instead of further explanations, perhaps pictures would help: There is no accumulation in futures. There's no float.
Day 12 of 20 Prep: Price below trend channel having made new lows. Price retraced a bit since yesterday's close but then dropped again towards low during pre-market. Still weakness out there. See if strong buyers will come in wanting to buy for bounce back into the channel. Otherwise the bias is for continuing downtrend. S1: 2883 (from PM) S2: 2877 (low from 20th) R1: 2898 (LSH from PM) http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1371879691909.png