It should be noted every now and then that there is no identity in the world of reality. Resemblances ,yes: similarities, yes. But since we perceive through what we abstract and since we abstract only a very small part of all the facts in any external reality, the identity we sometime assume is illusion based merely on the fact that our rather sketchy maps may have shown only certain features we have noted. We must keep in mind that there is always a great deal more that we have overlooked...... When we are dealing with symbolic representations (and all our thinking comes into this category), we must recognize the limits that apply and not try to fill in the gaps out of pure fancy. - John Magee (Winning the Mental Game on Wall Street)
Maps - Inherent emotions (nature) and past intentions (S/R) weave together a price, whose quality reflects the outcomes anticipated. Process in Progress: Avoid the chop Determine the trend Stay on it's right side Be aware of barriers to the trend Participate during confusion Enter at hesitations
It may be argued that focusing on one strategy at a time provides focus and enables one to better master that strategy. However, as Maslow said, "If you only have a hammer, you tend to see every problem as a nail." In this case, you're focusing on retracements. This is fine as far as it goes, but it can often focus the attention in the wrong directions, and one can "find" retracements that really aren't there. And if this leads to failed trades, one can get discouraged. There is also something to be said for learning all the strategies simultaneously. Depending on the individual, this can be either confusing or liberating. Since so many of the trading sessions you've posted are range-bound and thus inappropriate for retracement trading (since the ranges are so narrow), perhaps you should widen your focus. There are three basic strategies: retracements, reversals, and breakouts. Retracements are best employed in trending markets or in range-bound markets in which the range is so wide that the distance from top to bottom and vice-versa constitutes its own trend (such as gold from Oct '11 to March '13. Reversals are employed in range-bound markets, particularly those where the range is so narrow that the only way to make any money is by selling the top and buying the bottom without waiting for a retracement (which may not occur until one is already near the opposite side of the range). Breakouts, of course, refer to the eventual breakout from the range, at which point one either trades the breakout itself or trades the retracement afterward, the latter usually leading to a trending movement of some length. Your "trade of the day" is a reversal, and if you regard this as a missed opportunity, particularly one that you recognized but could not classify as a retracement, then perhaps you should try to employ all three of these strategies depending on what sort of trading session presents itself to you. The tactics regarding reversals are not very different. When either the demand line or supply line is broken after hitting support or resistance, just enter the opposite side. Here you've hit resistance for the third time and the demand line is broken. Therefore, you are free to short wherever you like. If you need to see a little pullback of some sort, note that you have one: the bar with the red circle pulls back from the low to close almost halfway up the bar. From your practice with a tick chart, you will know that on a smaller interval this would show up as a literal retracement in the downmove. In other words, even though there is no technical retracement as illustrated with this interval, you know there is one, and if you were to plot a smaller interval alongside, such as a 15s, there it would be.
http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=136892953610.png Outright Reversals: 3 Reversals with RET: 2 Continuations with RET: 7 Much more freestyle today. Opening up to to take Reversals without a RET kept me a lot more focused as there seemed to be opportunity everywhere. I felt somewhat in tune with the price movements swinging back and forth. It was a good feeling. There was more anxiety taking outright reversals because I don't have tactics for it yet. Led to some hasty exits especially on trade 1. A lot of the trades came due to taking shorts on the downtrend once it had broken the range and overnight support of 2879. Once a trade was in for a point or so I did not want to lose more than BE on it, so exited when it came back to entry. This led to more trades - and maybe that is not such a bad thing if you are on the side of the trend. Or maybe it is?
You're thinking too much about the money rather than whether or not the trade is correct. You'll have to get past this. Eliminate stops entirely. Once you've entered a trade, don't exit the trade until it has moved against you by at least three points. If your entry turns out to have been wrong, then work on getting the entry right. If your entry turns out to have been right and the trade went against you anyway, chalk it up to probabilities. Whether you're afraid of losing money or afraid of being wrong, you have to deal with that before you can progress.
http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1369000850839.png Trade 1: Had missed getting into the uptrend. Saw price reach PDH of 2887 and prepared for reversal on DS line break. The R overhead from PDH added to conviction to take the trade. Trade 2: This seems like a shaky entry. Could have waited for a RET here since there was a clear uptrend and price had broken R of PDH. Context called for more caution in taking reversals, if any at all.
Don't forget to analyse the real root of the problem: WHY you were slow and tentative. It may be lack of confidence in the method (research it more to increase conviction), lack of experience in identifying the setup (get more experience), or lack of comfort in the risk involved (possible solution - trade less size, but do so more decisively). When I see a setup I am very experienced and confident in, I almost don't even need to do any trade planning, because I know where the stop needs to go, what the risk is, what the odds are. When it's a setup which is still a theory, or strategy in progress, then I need to do much more prep because I am not experienced enough to have 100% conviction - the trade is therefore partly experimental, I could get it wrong because of something I don't know yet, or something I know but am not yet trained well enough to execute with 100% accuracy and decisiveness.
Another important thing - identify when the trend may be transitioning to another market state. Transitions are the most dangerous because you are trading according to model A and yet the reality has just changed from market state A to market state B, C, or D.