The sharp fall after the Failure up top, along with the long term position at the upper limit of the Daily TC led me to give the short position as much room as possible. I did not want to be shaken out at this level. Wasn't expecting a sharp V Reversal - but they do happen. Regardless, I held too long past BE - hoping.
[Originally Posted by niko "I am puzzled by your first short. What happened?" The sharp fall after the Failure up top, along with the long term position at the upper limit of the Daily TC led me to give the short position as much room as possible. I did not want to be shaken out at this level. Wasn't expecting a sharp V Reversal - but they do happen. Regardless, I held too long past BE - hoping.] Hi Game, I also think that short trade was really striking. Have you tested rules that involve exiting part of your position when price goes in your favor a certain distance? My trading involves capturing short term trends. When I started exiting half my position according to specific rules, followed by trailing the remaining half, my profitability went up strongly.
I am sure one could set a fixed 'target' profit based on studying the character of a given market's moves. I have not done any such profit taking study. My approach is based on exiting according to the Demand/Supply balance at any given time. My weakness has been in not recognizing this balance during trend runs, as I often exit too early. There are certain markers that help to differentiate between an ordinary swing versus a large trend run. Trying to get that down. In this scenario, price dropped about 18 pts after an attempt at upside exploration. Based on my observations of the NQ, I know that this kind of a drop (context included) rarely V Reverses itself. So my decision to keep holding was based on that observation. Thanks for the feedback. It helps improve my trading.