some info for you guys I'm been having good success (CONSISTENCY) in scalping ES for 8 ticks, YM 10-15 ticks . Anything more, it retraces up. Even in a 1.5% day I'm looking for the same ticks, Sometimes if I have 2 contracts , I'll let one run, the other I'll close at a 10-15 profit tick. In the past, I would trade futures with a huge expectaction like a 50 point gain, or a 30 point gain even. Forget about it. Thing stops @ 29 ticks, and retraces all the way back to your stop. Futures is a bit more of a scalping product as in, everything moves in a few ticks range, get those ticks and get out, before it comes and trades back to your stop which it always does. Reason behind is that, someone else is always on the other side of your trade betting the opposite direction which is why its so liquid. Most big futures players , I believe do not swing trade, at least the consistent ones, they buy 200 contracts of ES 1610 and throw them out for a 6-8 tick profit ES 1612 Basically they are betting on momentum, momentum is actually reliable but its reliable only until you lose your breath. Which is like 10-15 minutes ---- Lots of trading relies on betting on the greater fool theory, as in when you buy in your ES contract, there is another fool to buy some more in back of you. I believe the greater fool theory works REALLY well only at a short time range. If you are betting on the greater fool theory over 2-5 days, that isn't possible, maybe a bunch of the fools went fishing, who knows, fools aren't that reliable, but you can depend on them for a few minutes.... at least! This works in trend and chop days as well. Some things to think about....
I would say taking 8 ticks, or 2 ES pts, is a nice little setup myself. I see nothing wrong with doing that over and over if you can do it with consistency. We all like to catch those occasional 15 pt moves on the ES, but they are few and far if daytrading.
Hey, YM for me. Focusing on taking +10 then going to breakeven and trying for +15-25 on the last lot using -7 point stop on entry. Seems to be working well.
YM here too, risk 10 points reward 20-25 points averaging 5 Rt's a day since going live (3 months). 61% winners, working well to provide income through college. Beats the hell out of waiting tables, my old job. T
The choice to scalp for fixed-targets is typically driven by the lack of a closed-system -- good entries and no dynamic exits. Hence the 2 handle target. You'll believe you're banking a positive expectancy, but there is no guarantee your stops won't be obliterated. This forces you to extend duration, ride losers and cut winners.
Wow, that is impressive, you are doing 200 YM points or so a week average on 25 RT....forget college buddy....seriously. 10 contracts a trade puts you at about $9,000 per week after commish.....if you are doing that good congrats !
Hi, I have tried using diff methods to hold on to trades longer based on some indicator, price action, whatever, but for the mental side I always come back to fixed stops and targets. Perhaps at some point I will get beyong this phase as confidence grows....we shall, million ways to skin a cat etc etc
Hi coolweb, Nice to see you are still around. I like your post - feeling tempted to say join the club 8 ticks is a big ride tho
Razor, Ive been only trading1-2 contracts a day and only about 2-3 days a week. Also the bull market has been very kind to me, as many winners have been long. Just haven't been comfortable going short. I'd say 80% of my trades have been long. I don't know how I would do in a sideways or choppy market. I've only been trading volitile days with a wide market range(over 100 ym pnts.) The stats I compiled were over 11 weeks of trading = 11*2.5(ave.trading days)= 27 days trading. I don't think this is a large enough sample size to assume consistant success. I hope I can keep this up when the bull market runs out of steam, if ever. I've been watching the markets for 3 years. played the sim on YM for 9 months before going live.