I can't say for sure, only doing some sim myself, and results not encouraging However. Jack started out encouraging rockets. He also tried to push PP1 on 'surfer. Maybe there's some idea in there? You gotta start somewhere, and maybe SCT is not where you actually start dipping toes in lava? Anyways, sim is good enough for me to get more feel for real-time. In my opinion, trading is something very rich people do. Not in a get-rich-quick scheme, in order to rise above the gutter. By rich, not necessarily about gold or currency, but rather the innovative, creative type that also manages to float above the fray sometimes. Could be artistical or holistical, someone who participates in life from a broader perspective. If greedy, at least not too needy.
When you’re so hopeful that things will work out, you unintentionally eliminate the possibility that things might not work out as you envision. And that can make you afraid to take risks or make mistakes because you are so convinced success is possible 100% of the time. A simple guardrail strategy is to ask different questions to yourself and to your peers. What problems do you see that I may be missing? Are there reasons I shouldn’t proceed this way? Where can things go wrong? WchPl, you have turned your perfectionism into an outcome bias, which is not much different than a hindsight bias. Every battle is won before it is fought. In trading, every price bar is a battle, every trading day is a new war. You have not even sparred! You have not even suited up! While it's not your intention, you are making a mockery of the JH methods with your talk of consistent trading perfection, and outlandish daily profit perfection. How about doubling your $250 account by trading it? Stop this perfection nonsense. Just stop it!
So it is done 3 days of work to read the entire Condensed and Edited version of th Exact Science Thread. All relevants ideas, keywords, clear explanations, sequences descriptions has been noted on a post it, pasted on each corresponding page. As a consequence, I have understood more than expected, the link between my uncertainty and remaining doubts areas, and the FCC's 1 through 10; I have also already increased my comprehension of some cycles, with their necessity, their reason to be, what they are for etc. I see now them as shells around the core FCC1. Next step will be step by step to draw again by hand the FCC1 with volume snippets and methodologically work through posts of the thread. I will put the nodes in my LTM, log cycles one after another etc. I now understand @Sprout your "the idea is to develop sports memory". I have discovered a nice amount of energy inside of me while reading this thread, and am ready to work through all 10 cycles, little step by little step. You can expect a little bunch of posts in the very near future. Still waiting from Tradovate the good new of my account opened and accepted. Best wishes to all of you !
(When I knew I knew) + (When I had doubt) + (When I had an idea) = I put an illustration When I had almost no idea if how to illustrate, I just located the nodes. That was a first try. It already helps. Next is to work methodologically through the sequences discussed in the Exact Science thread. By the way, although it needs a verification, I've encountered the attached docs that could maybe help for the study.
Ok, first a few words on method. I have approached RDBMS methodologically, breaking some complex pieces into smaller and simpler ones, and that's how I started to open to the granularity of the system in question. Then I went through all steps, all shells of the core. It sent me to understand and handle PC's, VTP, EE's and MT/MR tables. So far, good. Let's approach the FCC's in general, and more specifically the FCC1. The Cycle 1 = FCC1 is dedicated to only make one take dominant segments along the day. There's a "ignore this until dominance comes back" mindset during non-Dom. Let's have a little review. Always good to put context around the subject. Remember any singularity can only be understood when compared to the universal and vice-versa. Any singularity can only be anticipated and understood when understanding that it is only the expression of a given threshold of development of the totality, at a given place/space. We need to throw away time of the thinking. Time is simply the alienatory word for space and move. Thus why, JH always talked about space, shape and change of shape (into space). Dom segments are in SCT terms, at least two of the at least three segments of the trend. Basically and "patternly" speaking, they are -the segments going from ftt/pt1 to pt2; this is in gaussian terms either R2R/B2B; in RDBMS terms this is P1-T1-P2. + the segments going from pt3 to ftt or new pt2. This is 2R/2B in gaussian terminology, while RDBMS deals with T2P to EE (P3P). Along FCC1, we will only deal with these two kinds of segments. Those two segments are interconnected by a non-Dom segment. First with a pt2 = P2 = a-turn, secondly with a pt3 = T2P = b-turn. The connection between two patterns is by a segment stopping to be Dom, giving birth to a priorly non-Dom segment that converts into Dom. This is from Dom to Dom, so prior Dom begins to be non-Dom, non-Dom begins to be Dom and this is c-turn = EE = P1 = ftt = pt1 = R2/B2. At the very beginning, when I first saw FCC1 I was a bit destabilized. I did not understand very well neither the idea behind, nor the flow concept of it. I see those two aspects better now. But I did not, until now, even though I understand a bit better the FCC1, managed to concretely begin some practical work on it. The breaking of pieces took me time. The guy presented as probably the current greatest mathematician in the world, C.Villani, states that "when you're blocked with a problem and stuck, you need to begin something. You need to start, and you have two options : either this will be a good beginning, or it will not be. Any of the two results will lead you, by either prolonging or modifying your trajectory, to a better step at time n+1. So just start, and the best start is the beginning, which is : start with the frame of your problem". This difficulty in beginning the solving of an issue is in his language famously known as "l'angoisse de la page blanche". I have been in this angustia at the beginning. So now, what is the frame, what is the most evident thing I see on the FCC1 ? If I remember JH's statings, one needs into this world (trading) to have a fully differentiated left/right oriented mind. If I apply this to the FCC1, I see it is divided into 4 columns. The flow is from nodes on the left to the nodes on the right. The more you progress from left to right, the more it incorporates bars into the segments. This reminds me VTP ^^ First column is n, second is n+1, third is n+2. I said there are 4 columns cause the third one is sub-divided into HOLD and EXIT/REVERSE sub-columns. What I understand with that stated, is that all the nodes : - in n column concern * - in n+1 column concern * - in n+2 column concern * As I see it now, * = the different possible states of being of a bar pertaining to its corresponding column. Ignoring the fact that some paths from certain nodes to other ones are impossible, I could say my comprehension of the ubication of the nodes informs me that a n bar can pass from A to D state of being, with B and C along the path. Any n+1 bar can pass from E to M, with F, L and G along the path. And so on. Now, as I know, some paths are impossible. What I will now do, is that I will try to decipher which path is possible inside a same column beginning with the n one, then I'll compare and help that study with the different paths that are exposed in the Exact Science Thread as possible. The goal is to have column by column, all the possible and not possible paths of the nodes by which a bar can pass. Once again, ignoring some paths are impossible, I understand the FCC1 as in each column, a bar can pass through any path of nodes that all pertain to the same column, along its own formation. The main goal is to let the flow chart flowing, so very soon and evidently, I can feel it, I'll see arrive on the table the consideration of some nodes making one pass from a column to another. That's the case for example of the feedback loop stating it makes the bar as designated n+1 bar once Doji appears. Their will be a multitude of different cases, I will try to fill logs with FCC1 first when I have a few printed. Let's enter now into the flow. ASA something relevant and flowing is DDd, a post will follow.
I'll post step by step little posts, in order to : - have a possible recapitulation of the progress - a trace of the work - help those following - simply keep on being active n column study 1 When we are at A, we just have exited. We sideline, we wait. Normal, we are at n and it is WAIT column. If we exited, it means the Dom ended, and non-Dom appeared, began, is at play, is there, is the current move. That’s congruent with FCC1. The wait action is congruent with the n column we’re sitting in, at node A. The bar after we exited and that took us to exit feedback loop towards A is now our current n bar. What would that current bar do ? -It could be non-Dom, which in « puppies » terms would be continue of decreasing ». Something like this. If this happens, I DD I’d be at B. HEre I see along the formation of the same n bar, I pass from A to B node, state. I think I prefer « state » to « node ». But there’s no need to create new terminology, let’s stick to JH’s. If at EOB, the n bar is still non-Dom, we’d be still in n column, at B. My DD is that after, that, when next bar comes, it is at it O, still n bar. I also know that B node is the jumping off point to F, so in other words, B sets the scene for F. Without extending too much, I know F is Dom volume w/ color change. -Otherwise, when one is sitting at A, the bar could be at VDU or DU. I am not yet very clear with those terms. I need to do some research. I only know the lowest range of volume is VDU, and the four increasing ranges are DU/Low/Medium/High AND I know DU/VDU deal with midday AND I know during midday volume i slow AND I know C node (so when volume is at VDU/DU) it’s cool cause we have to meet G conditions (PRV > n at 12sec). So when at A, C is another option. Thus, I understand that both B and C are non-Dom situations. If at EOB the bar is at B node, the bar would be a trough by nature, a decreasing move. If at EOB we are in midday and volume is at VDU/DU, we’d be at C node. Next and last node is D. I know D is a point at the end of a bar. As I understand D node, but it can be wrongly, it could have its place between n and n+1 columns, like pertaining to the two possibly. I feel something is not good here nevertheless. I feel the flow begins to appear and to make the ground shake. As I understand D node, it means that, in terms of flow : we exited because non-Dom appeared, we’re sent to A = wait, at EOB we have a trough so we are at B and wait, then new bar opens and 12sec after its beginning, PRV exceeds prior bar which is found as a trough. I can’t DD for now if the word « trough » means descreasing or the form of a trough (like P1-T1-P2 in RDBMS). I remember I have the same, for now, problem for G with the « peak » word : peak in terms of merely increasing move, or peak in form ? (T1-P2-T2P in RDBMS for ex). It will be DDd. One last thing, according to Exact Science condensed and edited version’s post #154, I know te path A>D>F exists. It is a possible path. This will surely help. Let’s have more inputs thanks to next study : n+1 columns and nodes F, E, L, G, M.
While entering into what is pointed out in the above quote, I have begun to build sheets of condensed and gathered infos around nodes, from the MADA finite series doc, my own comprehension, and posts of the Exact Science thread. All in a Einstein's enigma style. It does help a lot. I did not suspect I could work on all sources of infos at the same time, but I do can, finally. See attached the first two sheets, one for n and the other one for n+1 column. AND While entering into the n+1 column , then surged as an obvious thing that I had to gather the possible paths (as encountered into the ExSc thread) linking n column nodes and n+1 column nodes. See it attached. I circled then in each sequence, the part of the flow concerning a flow between the first two columns. Let’s say here in this post, the bold nodes in sequence are those concerned. The remaining are for other columns. A>>D>>F So this would be : we’ve exited for occurrence of non-Dom, we sit at A, and our current bar is non-Dom at EOB. Then next bar begins and 12sec after, PRV says prior bar is determined as a trough. This means Dom is back. And at EOB, the bar effectively exceeds the prior one and color has changed, so we’re at F. We’ve made A>>D>>F. This would make L implicit, contained in it. And this would be congruent with L definition : volume lock in for either F or G type. B>>F>>Q>>R>>X>>J>>A So this would be : B is non-Dom at EOB. We stay in n column, we wait, we do not enter yet. Non-Dom is at play. Next bar begins ,and volume exceeds prior one w/ color change. This looks like prior case. There must be a difference. From where I am now, I think when after exiting we arrive at A and here, the bar that made us exit is either a B or C type. Then the next bar begins and we are at E. The different nodes here are F, G or L. From what I understand all three signal a return to Dom. But here must be a way of understanding the chart as having a possibility to, once again, see non-Dom at hand, in other words, continuity of non-Dom. Where is this ? Let’s dig deeper via anlalysing next paths and see if this is solved (smell H). To be continued…(study of today for FCC1 started at 2pm. 7pm now, log time).
n+1 column study F node By nature, I know that F is the surge of an increasing volume bar w/ color change. In SCT terms this would either be 2b if B2B intiated the segment, or 2R if R2R initiated the segment. It's a return to dominance move. In RDBMS terms, this would be the appearance of a b-turn and we'd be informed that at least, shortest, less complete into completeness, a C Set of trend is underway. Appearance later of back to non-Dom would definitely build the path to a D set. So far, good. According to the MADA finite series document, at F you hold for ( H or J) or you hold for L. H deals with n+2 column and J even farer, while L is in the n+1 column. At first, the problematic issue that English language constitutes for me, I wondered what "hold for" meant. Hold for = hold until ? hold because of = hold if ? Let's dig deeper. E node It is a choice node at the beginning of n+1 column. You must choose F or G. As seen, F is increasing volume w/ color change, while G is surge of volume superior to prior peak, whichever the color is. Here I meet another little crux. The peak term. From what I DD for now, I'd say the peak in question cannot be a merely increasing move volume being before the possible G node. Why so ? because to arrive at G node, according to the possible paths that are exposed in the ExSc thread, C is the node that is before G. C is VDU/DU, so in a nutshell and at my level of understanding (LOU), it deals with midday AND then low volume range. I think then if C node comes before G AND as C is cool cause we must wait and meet G condition, it must surely mean G is when volume exceed the prior peak in SCT terms = in the form of a peak = from a, to b which is >a, to c<b. So like T1-P2-T2P in RDBMS. Therefore the visual illustration of my handrawn version of the FCC1 would be wrong. Thus, at E, you choose either F or G. So either it's INC volume w/ color change, or you have an INC volume superior to prior peak, correctly understood, with any color<. Both situation deal w/ Dom. G node : see E. L node : When we are at L, it mean svolume lock in occurs for either an F or a G type (n+1 bar). Lock in is defined as n+1 volume > n volume. In the MADA finite series document, I learnt that if L, then you hold for M (doji). And you exit if loop N>>L repeats. N is too far towards the right side of the FCC1 to be studied and thoroughly included for now. So basically, L nod emeans the current volume bar is above prior volume bar. this is, evidently, the surge of Dom. I might add that, from my current LOU, to state we're either at F or G, we must use PRV. In other words, PRV is what lets one ID a given bar as in a F or G state, at F or G node. We're not yet talking about the level of the current unfolding bar at its second 300. We are talking about its anticipated final level, provided and continuously calculated by PRV. There is only one condition, one occurence, that would make PRV right (in the case whre PRV says "we'll meet lock in", and this would be the case of a lock in reached before EOB. It terms of nodes, This would be L node from what I understand. So if L occurs, then we meet lock in and we are in a Dom move. What, now, about color ? if color is opposite to prior exceeded volume bar, then we are at F and we hold. This would clear up the "you hold for" words. i'd rephrase it and say : you hold because the oppearance of. On the other hand, color could be the same as priro bar. Could this be G ? Again, from what i've seen , G comes from C. G is the occurence of exceeding prior peak with any color. When I dealt with F, I had to have determined prior bar as being a trough, thanks to PRV. Before G, is athere a trough ? I can feel there is something quite subtle here. before G there is C, and C is midday so it's VDU or DU so it's low volume range. So, in a way, yes there's a trough before G, but not necessarily a trough just before G. So F and G seems to imply kind of different nature of bars before each. As a conclusion, L is when current bar exceeds, into the context we're in (n+1), prior volume bar. If color is the same as prior bar, it could be G. If color changes, then it's F. I can feel this is partly correct. Let's see what occurs next and if leads to greater clarity or so. The remaining non studied node is M. M node By nature, M is the occurence of a doji. From the MADA finite series document, we know that when M happens, we do N test. Once again, N is not in the currently studied column. Let's let it aside for now. From the ExSc thread's post #127, I learn that doji is sentimental. One sentiment (so short or long) leading to an equal (C = O) and opposite (so long after short, or short after long). Ok, this phrase helps me quite a lot about the doji move. Until now, I've always considered doji to be the quality of a given price bar when its close finishes equal to its open. By the way, on each log I've recently posted, anyone could find on the 30min and 5min columns, a D being here occasionally, and this means the sent at 30min or 5min is neutral, equal so close = open so C = O. Moreover, I learn that an IBGS is a pre doji. Ok, IBGS is a pre doji. To have a doji situation, I understand we need to see price beginning to move from the O of the bar, then going with at least one tick in one direction. And then, from there, from this first move, price can do two things. Or along its formation it will at least once go back in the other direction, or it will make pause or not but, in any case, will continue towards the same initial direction it had gone to. In the case price begins by a first tick to go in a given situation and then makes pause or not, but in any case, always goes towards the same direction along the formation of the bar, there is then no way this bar could be a doji. What do we need to have a doji bar in my terms ?Close equal to open. Is that possible with the occurence of the scenario described above ? No, it isn't. Therefore, there is another option. After opening and going towards any of the two senses, price can go back towards the direction of the O. From there, again two possibilities, either it (price) will meet open, and we'll meet doji point or it will not. And to finish, again two possibilities : when at the open level, either price will break out past open level and sentiment will change, or price will not cross this threshold and it will be back until EOB towards the other direction. Or it could end, at EOB, on the O level without ever crossing Open level. As a conclusion, I DD that : accordingly with the definition of the flow of dojiness AND remembering that IBGS is a pre-doji, then a doji is when a bar shifts its sentiment along its formation. And plus, an IBGS would be a bar that takes its close from a given point after a only-one-direction-after open, towards doji quantuum. I understand doji so M node is like a test. Oh, good because in the MADA finite series doc I learn at M we do N test. And N test is the doji test and is the nodes of all the nodes as said in the ExSc thread by we know who. So my current LOU tells me that when a bar sees its close going back towards the open level, this is occurence of an IBGS. This is a shift in the direction of the move inside the bar. An IntraBar Gaussian Shift. After that, price could or could not reach open level. Whether it does so or not, I see the path as an IBGS one. And if the O level is reached, then we meet M node. And if we meet M node, we test if close breaks out the threshold. I guess this is N test. It would clear up the text I had not understood about N test with "one tick further in sentiment but remains limited ...", in the MADA finite series doc (let's call it MADA doc, i'm fed up with writing it each time). To be continued...
Some questions you can ask yourself; How many of the FS can be further distinguish into the BM,rev and BO,T1 - both as either on increasing or decreasing volume? How many are the BO,T1/BM,rev combo that continues the previous Dominant segment? How many are in a lateral?