I will never encounter the issue you mention, thanks to some misunderstanding from em in the past. When you mentionned to me you have an extensive ignore list, I just thought, basically, it meant you did not read posts from " x user" you had in mind. I did this, from memory I knew who I was not to read any post from. I realize now I've never understood the "ignore list" and the button I see now next to any user profile page, which will prevent me of seeing threads initiated by anyone. Great to miss things sometimes haha
Wow looks like JH was the most active participant of this Exact Science thread. So much to read, and therefore certainly many Aha's within. Great but I'm surely not ending to read this thread today.
I am on page 27 of the Exact Science thread. This is what has been relevant for me so far. For making money in markets only one characteristic is considered: price change. To the degree of participation, a person or organization does only one thing: make money via price change. 1. Price change is divided into segments that go from price A to price B. The difference is the profit of the segment. 2. Volume leads price and volume defines the division of the profit segments. Drills treach people to put in points and peaks and troughs according to the pattern of a long or a short on a P, V chart. They log the cases and three fractals by noting the points and peaks and troughs. They also note the cases on two markets (YM leads ES). As a person learns the fastest fractal 1, 2, 3; 1, 2, 3;1.. he sees that three of these form one move in the next slower fractal. The nesting builds and he trades the middle fractal. Trading is a succession of reversals which keeps the trader always on the correct side of the market. To avoid "jumping fractals", there is a requirement that entails examining volume as a leading indicator of price. You may have sacrificed that opportunity so far. We will be talking thoroughly about crossover trading PVT and stepping up from 5 to 7 trades a day on SCT to 40 trades aday to knock down 3 to 6 times the ATR. Trending cycles are not up down events; they are segmented into parts where the combination of V and P form a pattern Bar n+1 ended and that put us at point Q flowing from the L lock in. this is critical thinking. you are on row 7 of a log and it states the facts. L means that the bar is getting to the PRV and the actual volume has exceeded the volume to which it is referred. when a bar does meet lock in it cannot be the last bar of the hold. we trade on bar opens as you may surmise. sometimes we trade before bar open if we get an H leading to an exit in the EXIT column. It is a GO that is small PRV BUT a "greater than" The reference trough for its given PRV. It is the sandwich bar. S for SANDWICH. as you see the PRV is another significant invention. It switches trading ends of bars to trading opens of bars. This takes a lagging traders to a front running trader status. This is a big deal in making money. This is a situation where on one fractal you are holding a profit segment. AND within that container there are faster fractals going through their routine of the pattern. Shifting trading signals to a place where they are leading indicators, only took a small tweak. The tweak is PRV. Both trades begin with a non dominant price move , you have to first learn to take dominant profit segments and then learn to take non dominant profit segments (or HOLD through them) after that. Before all of thsi you need to have PRV (Pro Rata Volume on your charts and market PACE on your charts to see whether PACE change or dominance change or non-dominance change is more significant. These three items are leading indicators of price. First they have to be added to displays and then you have to learn how to "read" them using built long term memory to match what you see. On bar 1 you want to "know that you know". You are @ second 300 when the bar starts; PRV is way up ...... PRV is relative to something. What is PRV relative to? It is relative to the prior bar. PRV has been well documented as well. It is being calculated from the begging to the end of any forming bar. because a ratiio is involved and arithematic is involved, then we have to look at the denominator and it's influence on the resulting value of the PRV. One thing becomes apparent: during the first several seconds the PRV "shadow" will be canging remarkably as it drops down from positive infinity. Most of the trip is made in milliseconds but it is a good idea to let in pan out for a number of seconds. I post 12 seconds as a reasonable portion of the 300 seconds involved. In many types of stats 0.05 is used as a gate for significant measurability. 12/300ths sort of fits into this casual realm. When the matrices of volume PACE with repect to volatility, etc., were posted, whole bars were used to show the vertical and horizontal Gaussian distributions. This was a clear measure of the strong corrolatiion of market PACE and market volatility. from this we can gather that PRV is "showing" the forming bar's propensity to be a given number of ticks in length. Further this suggests the importance of "temporary" nature of what is continuing to "freak out" most potential traders. The first few events to consider are: the PRV value @ 12 seconds in. the "lockin when volume equals the prior bar. Bars that do not make lock in before the end of the bar. The bold sentence does not make sense to me fo now, as I've not seen in this thread in question anything defining either clearly or implicitely how one obtains the given PRV for each bar. I am dwelling on this especially being as JH's "as you see the PRV is another significant invention. It switches trading ends of bars to trading opens of bars. This takes a lagging traders to a front running trader status. This is a big deal in making money. This is a situation where on one fractal you are holding a profit segment. AND within that container there are faster fractals going through their routine of the pattern" , does describe nicely my problem with the "there is an EE here located, but clearly I need something to indicate the action is anything but not reverse". I have also noticed that I had not got what lock-in means. On the flow chart cycle I see the lock in is defined as when PRV (n+1) > volume (n). What this means for me is that when the current bar's PRV overpasses prior bar's volume, lock in is reached. I know PRV stands for ProRata Volume. A pro rata is a division, a numerator divided by a denominator. And I also know ProRata means relative, and for PRV it is referred to prior bar, and more precisely prior bar's volume. So, if bar n reaches the lock in it means its PRV has overpassed prior bar's volume. PRV is a ratio of a given volume bar compared to prior one. That's what I understand. Let's say n+1 bar as a volume of 10K. How to know its PRV ? I guess it's given by its volume compared to prior one. So let's say n bar had a volume level at 5K. PRV of bar n+1 is 10/5=2. I know lock in is when PRV (n+1) > volume (n). So in this case I would have lock in if volume of bar n+1 was superior to 5. So as soon as current bar reaches prior volume bar level, lock in is reached. That is what I understand. But it does not lead me anywhere from now. In addition, I see it's very important to use PRV. It's decisive, in fact. JH states it's a real problem to not use it. Then, @Sprout you invited me to handcopy the flow chart. I see many JH's posts in the Exact Science thread concerns the explanations and development (at least until where I am in the thread, so a bit before page 30 out of 80). I suspect this will be something new to study. Along the last three nights, I've spet very very badly. I almost did not sleep for an unknown reason. I feel obsessed with the work, I want to be starting trading RDBMS and extract the full offer of the market every day, and I thought I was closer that I, today, think I am. It's a bit discouraging, but I also think the bad sleep is what influences my perception most. Any indication to follow and support will be appreciated.
It is absolutely impressive to be aware of how much, in qualitative term, the inner vibration and global mindset, can affect the perception. I am re-reading PRV's JH's posts, and see things completely different today. It's amazing how can one miss treasures despite watching it. There's a fundamental difference between watching and seeing. Always the same story : are you looking a t a thing in what it is, or how your current altering perception lets you see it.
This bold entence begins to make more sense to me. JH surely meant "PRV has been well documented as well, IN OTHER PLACES". I am beginning to find some of them. The following comes from it : ---------------- Pro Rata Volume is an estimate of what the Bar's final Volume will be. --------------- Volume begins at zero for each and every bar. At some point within the five minute bar, you know you cannot have change because, based on current PRV, actual volume will go beyond the previous volume bar. At some point within the five minute bar, you know you cannot have continuation because, based on current PRV, actual volume will not go beyond the previous volume bar. At some point within the five minute bar, you know you cannot have anything but a flaw because, based on current PRV, actual volume will not go beyond the 40% level. "At some point" means it has become a near mathematical impossibility for Volume to do what needs to be done to invalidate the current hypothesis. You should see this phenomenon unfold within 30 seconds to 1 minute all the way up to the end of the five minute bar. Some bars will require more time (perhaps just before the close of the bar) to reach the "at some point" moment. Other bars require much less time (very early in the bar). Since mathematics dictates when this "At some point" occurs, it differs for each and every bar. You (and the six others) appear to be saying Volume jumps back and forth between less than and greater than the previous bar - back and forth, back and forth several times within each bar, every bar. You (and the six others) appear to be saying Volume jumps back and forth between less than and greater than the 40% level - back and forth, back and forth several times per bar, every bar. This is not my experience -ever. I encourage you to create a video of these Volume bars performing the behavior outlined above, so that I might ascertain whether we are discussing two different topics, or something is incorrect with your PRV calculations. ----------------- guavaman - as Avi 8 suggested, try doing a search for PRV - you will find many links to earlier posts in this journal discussing PRV. Pro Rated Volume is a simple method of anticipating what the total volume for a completed 5 min ES vol bar will be, as calculated DURING this 5 min period. Consider: a five min bar begins now: - after 30 secs, obtain the current volume reading from your charting pkg and multiply by ten. (10 X 30 sec. = 5 min, so 10 X current volume = total volume at end of 5 min) This number is an 'estimate' of what the volume for this bar WILL BE at the END of its period. - after 1 min., multiply vol by five (5 X 1 min = 5 min) -after 2 min, multiply vol by 2.5 (2.5 X 2 min = 5 min) - and so on: 2.5 min vol X 2, 3 min vol X 5/3, 4 min vol X 5/4 This procedure tells you a couple things: 1. by continually comparing the latest calc. volume number against the total volume of the prev. 5 min bar, one is able to determine if the gaussian is forming as anticipated (for ex., in an upchannel, you would expect increasing black vol as price increases (think continuation) 2. one is able to detect a possible change in sentiment, if the volume of the bar is deviating from that anticipated (for ex. in an upchannel, price has reached a new high, but PRV is telling you that volume is decreasing, as compared to the prev bar - it may be a flaw, or it could be signaling a possible FTT) ² Not sure where you are at in your studies, but it's imperative to start at the beginning of this journal. and slowly build your comprehension by reading, and then reading some more Good luck ... -------------- The answer to guavaman is explicit. Let's have an example . Bar n is at 10K. And then n+1 bar begins. After 30 seconds, volume for this n+1 bar is at 1.5K. PRV would then be 1.5*10 = 15K. So after 30 seconds, I’d have PRV (n+1) > volume (n). This is defined as lock in. That’s what I understand. As it has been asked to Spyder, what if PRV evoluates in an eratic maneer and successively passes from > volume n and then to < volume n ? First of all, is that mathematically possible ? Let’s say the bar continues to unfold, and at 1 min, PRV is calculated once more :volume is at 3K, so PRV is 3*5 = 15K, still above n volume bar and we can say PRV is increasing steady. Then at 2min, volume is at 5K and PRV is then at 2.5*5 = 12.5K, still above prior volume bar but this time it decreases compared to prior PRV calculated. Then, at 3min, volume is at 6K, so PRV is at 5/3 * 6 =10K which is equal to prior volume level. Then at 4min, volume is at 7K so PRV is at 5/4* 7 = 8.75 which is now less than prior volume. At this moment, PRV says a change in trend is coming. And at 5min, volume level is at 11K which is above prior volume level and finally, there is continuation of the trend. The above covers every of the four points following, found in the Spyder's JH's Futures Journal : 1. The PRV holds steady -- You will see the volume bar rises through time, until it meets the high of PRV at the end of the 5 minutes. 2. The PRV rises -- The PRV starts out modestly at the beginning of the 5 minutes, and steadily increases as time passes. 3. The PRV declines -- The PRV starts out with a bang, but declines as the time passes, and ended with low volume at the end of the 5 minutes bar. 4. The PRV was eratic. This simple example lets me see my understanding of the use/calculation of the PRV prevents me to have any certitude about the end of volume level of the current bar, which means my understanding is not correct. However, it is said in the posts quoted above that the PRV calculation is simple. Moreover I’ve found a code to put the PVR chart on the display. Unfortunately I did not manage to ad dit to my TV charts. I pasted the code in the pine editor of TV but it says « invalid symbol » or something like this. I have to reconsider the calculation or the use or PRV anyway. I might add this tools seems to have an incredible power when one knows how to calculate and use it. I see it like the pivot item that links many things together, so to speak it gathers many things. Fractal levels, trading non dominant trades, which EE requires which action, volume as the leading indicator, avoiding jumping fractals, lock in concept and the fact that « when a bar does meet lock in it cannot be the last bar of the hold », and this « as you see the PRV is another significant invention. It switches trading ends of bars to trading opens of bars. This takes a lagging traders to a front running trader status. This is a big deal in making money. This is a situation where on one fractal you are holding a profit segment. AND within that container there are faster fractals going through their routine of the pattern. Shifting trading signals to a place where they are leading indicators, only took a small tweak. The tweak is PRV. ». It seems to be a keystone. Thus why I continue my study on it.
I'll try to help you, however my explanations are geared from real-life trading, with JH as basis only, which is not the same as explicit rules: the market does not operate that way, regardless of what ANYONE, including JH, might say or has said. There are 2 definitive types of lock-in. The first one, and the more commonly cited is in the price-pane. I've attached the widely available lock-in sheet. It is nothing new. The price-pane lock-in is all about the 10 cases... As a bar is FORMING, before the bar closes, it MAY go through a morphing process.... for instance, just as example not meant to present an exhaustive representation, a SYM may turn into an FTP. An FTP can turn into an XB, an XB can turn into an OB. FTP can not become a FBP but FTP can become a HITCH. XB can not become a HITCH, but it can become a STITCH or OB. This process of lock-in occurs while the price-bar is forming, before the price-bar is closed. The other type of definitive lockin is with volume. As you are learning, with volume there is ACTUAL and PRV. Lock-in with actual volume is simple to understand... the very second the actual volume surpasses the previously measurable, whether it's 2 seconds into the bar formation or at the 300th second as the bar is closing, you know what you have volume-wise. In the very least, you know what the volume is not!! OTOH, PRV is CALCULATED AS THE BAR IS FORMING.. PRV is an INDICATION ONLY! It seems you've grasped how it is calculated. Personally, I use 20 second intervals, 3 calculations per minute. JH used 12 second intervals, or 5 calculations per minute. Making concrete assumptions about this calculated PRV value during bar formation can EASILY lead to losses. OTOH, PRV can provide INTRABAR heads-up and/or TEMPORARY (intrabar) confirmations. But always remember... The lines you place, the calculations you make, the annotations you make are merely things on YOUR screen. YOU are the one that gives meaning or value to them... the market is always correct, and does not give one hoot about us, our methods, our calculations, or what's on our screens!!
Pepe's script works. Review post #1576 in the JH software thread to get it to work. Alternatively, the ES 1min chart would also allow one to "use" that as PRV for the ES 5m.