You bring up a good point, but the scenario is not realistic. The 2 points average most likely won't be achieved by 50 pts wins and 46 pts losses. That is just way too much volatility in the gains/losses. In plain English the P/L fluctuation can not be 50 times of the average. To use a real example, the vendor mentioned in my previous post made 8.5 points in his best day and lost -3 points in his worst day. So the P/L width was only 4 (!!!) times of his 3 pts average, not 50 times as in your example....
Trading futs is an entirely different game from trading stocks/options. The example that Neke gave is what made sense to him, because that's how he trades stocks/options. Futures traders don't endure drawdowns like that ... they determine the trend and trade in its direction, going for anywhere from 2pts - 4pts of profit per shot, quite often with a 2pt protective stop. *** If the OP (or the personae he is speaking for) can generate effective returns and scale-up modestly, he shouldn't have a problem building a base off of $30k and making a living ... and if he can't, he can't. Jimmy Jam
5 weeks does not a career make. This is called "luck". Risk of Ruin loves things like this. Look at Postive Forex I would not let anyone with a 5 week track record near my money.
"making an average of 2 points a day on the ES is not extremely difficult. " is the problem. These tracking sites show the difficulty of doing this when under the lights. Many people confuse papertrading or short term real trading with longterm success...
Michael Schumacher makes $80 million a year. He earns this by racing the Formula One Ferrari, which is designed a bit like a jet airplane, around the track at speeds of more than 200 miles per hour. Can it be done? -- YES. How many people can do it? -- A few. Can you do it too? -- I will let you decide. You might say: but... I don't need to be like Michael Schumacher. All I want is 1% of what he earns, and I will be happy. Well unfortunately, to earn that 1%, you will need the same effort and tenaciousness as what Michael put in. p.s. those who tried and didn't make it usually NOT because they don't have talent, but because they have crashed and wiped out.
100+ trades is statistically signifficant data. I am also sure the guy didn't start to trade yesterday. Now that people already trusting him with their money, that is another question. 30K would be/ could be sufficient to start with and making 100+% returns, but the OP has to transfer his mindset from stocks to fitires....
Anyone who trades longterm for a living would likely not agree. You can't quote pure statistics and say, "gee, this has proved itself." The market changes. Constantly. Daily. Traders change. Traders with short term luck is usually caused BY luck. Stat. Significance in trading is only proved by testing or performing YEARS of trading, across conditions, eliminating luck factor, eliminating those who leveraged a trend, etc. etc. That is one of my beefs with TA lovers. Someone has 2 months success with something like bollinger bands, and self declares them as useful. And of course, they are not really sure whether BBs did it, or their money/trade mgmt, etc... Try looking at tracking sites like TImerTrac, collective2, futurestruth. Almost all systems that had a "stat significant" # trades no longer work. The market defines what is significant, not a trader running backtests, papertrading, or doing 5 weeks worth of trades
You strike me as one of those losers who automatically projects onto others what you are unable to accomplish yourself. Regardless, I gave the OP well-qualified, constructive advice on a path forward regarding his friend's dilemma. On the other hand, you simply snipe and bitch at everything like a little whiner. Grow up and contribute something.