To Rcanfel Predictable, you've had your say, now let it rest. I have said everything I want to now let others add their comments also about the subject pertinent to this thread. Move on Paul
Predictable? I do not see how you could possibly be a longterm profitable trader given your love of Oscar and your non-grasp of significant trading concepts.
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Its possible. I'd recommend having at least 6 months of living expenses in reserve so that you can focus entirely on trading the opportunities (when they exist) versus being under pressure to trade to pay your bills. This can come later... In addition, I would not trade 10-lot positions just because you can. I never max out my account just because I can do it. As a rule of thumb, I always trade under my means. As a result I never get margin calls, never blow out an account, avoid huge losses and take advantage of t-bill interest! I manage positions so that my profits are able to grow while losses are controlled. You hear a great deal about keeping losses low, but profits should stay within a certain range as well when dealing with size. Otherwise, FEAR and GREED can become an overriding distraction. These emotions affect us all, no one is immune. The key is to trade under your fear/greed threshold so that neither become an overriding influence. Your instinct, common sense, experience and logic should guide you, not fear or greed. If losses or profits become to large, rational thinking can be replaced by emotional reaction (i.e. fear and greed). My short-term trading is almost 100% instinct. I have developed my own trading systems and position management methodology for managing longer-term positions (i.e. my IMPA position trading system, trend/counter trend approaches, various patterns for swing trading such as my plungers and so on). In recent months the volatility has picked up substantially in the stock indices. The ES was up over $2100 per contract on the day today for example. Thus I have been doing quite well with smaller size positions recently as well. I tailer my position to market conditions and almost always trade multiple positions in order to manage my position effectively as well. I have been trading the S&P futures (and before that the NYFE contract) for well over a decade and have rarely missed a day! Floyd Upperman
great post floyd upperman, I can see that you and paulds11 and a few others know a little of what successful trading is all about. There is one guy here who seems to rant and rave and knows very little of successful trading and always, for some reason, seems to be in a very bad mood. Too many losses? As for me, I enjoy a little bit of story telling mixed in with real life true trading tales, the good, the bad, and the ugly......the winners and the losers...what I don't like are the crybabies who whine and moan that "it can't be done!" and to them, it can't be done......they are babies and inveterate losers. Encouraging words and bits of wisdom are here in these posts for those who are wise enough to discern them and use to their advantage.
Above is the original post. The question is "Do you guys think that it's enough capital to achieve this goal?" NOT "Can it be done?" The answer to "Can it be done? is: Yes. But that doesn't take into account the probabability that he will be able to meet his goal. He could have also asked, "Can I hit the lottery?" Again, the answer is: Yes, but highly unlikely (unless you bought millions of different combinations to increase your odds of hitting it and then you may not profit). I think the question needed to be reworded as: Given his goal, how much capital do you think he should have for a 95% (or other %) chance of meeting his goal? IMHO, I think 30k is woefully short. I would prefer that he have 100k to give him a reasonable expectation of achieving his goal. Joe.
Hi, Could you plz explain why 100 and not 200 or 500 instead of 30 ? because i don't see what you can't do with 30k that you could with 100k.. it's just a question of leverage and 30k is far enough to start with if you have any idea what is trading about.
100 could get you more than 3.3 times the number of contracts that you could with 30, with risk at the same level, and therefore 3.3 times the profit expectation. So if you can return 60K with 100K, the amount you could expect to return with 30K, with the same risk level, is 18K. Is that clear? So there is something you can do with 100K that you cant do with 30K, assuming 60K is what the fellow needs to make a living!!!
l2tradr, If you can't trade and make a living with 30K you'll just waste 3.3 times more money with 100k. End of the story for me. good luck