Today IDMI $6.10 (down $3 before the FDA panel decisions): On Deck in Biotech By Mike Havrilla May 4, 2007 I've received many positive reader emails about my first installment on biotech investing, and there was positive trial data from one of the companies I profiled later -- YM BioSciences (AMEX: YMI). So here are the biotech companies most popular with readers that are expected to report major catalysts in the form of clinical trial data and FDA decisions. These companies are expected to be on the move in the next nine months and have market caps ranging from around $100 million to just beyond $1 billion. Let's get to it. For DOR BioPharma (OTC BB: DORB.OB), May 9 is fast approaching. That's when the FDA's oncology advisory committee decides whether to recommend that the FDA approve its experimental orBec treatment for gastrointestinal graft versus host disease in transplant patients (a serious, potentially fatal complication in which the body attacks itself). The Food and Drug Administration will make its decision on July 21. The drug is a unique oral formulation of the steroid beclomethasone that failed to meet its primary endpoint in phase 3 trials but did show a noticeable survival benefit upon longer-term follow-up. The advisory committee must consider whether the survival benefit is due to orBec or some other factor, because it wasn't the primary endpoint in the trials. My guess is that orBec probably has slightly better odds than a coin toss (60%) of getting a recommendation from the committee, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it. The committee is also evaluating IDM Pharma's (Nasdaq: IDMI) experimental cancer drug Junovan, for the combination treatment of a type of bone cancer that occurs mostly in adolescents and young adults, and will report on whether it recommends it to the FDA on May 9. When Junovan is combined with other chemotherapy treatments, the probability of survival at six years is 77% for the drug versus 66% without it, which the company says is clinically meaningful because longer survival equates to a better chance of a cure. Given the company's very low float of around 10 million shares and the stock's recent upswing, an endorsement from the committee could bring further upside. However, it should be noted that the trial data IDM Pharma submitted differs from that published by the Children's Oncology Group (in a study supported by the National Cancer Institute). The company believes its data will be adequate, based on discussions with the FDA, and I would put the odds of an endorsement at about 60% because of the young patient population and Junovan's potential survival benefit. Besides the recent FDA approval of its antibiotic eye drop AzaSite, InSite Vision (AMEX: ISV) has several likely positive catalysts coming up -- even if Inspire (Nasdaq: ISPH) passes up the timely opportunity to acquire its drug development partner. Near term, they include an international licensing deal for AzaSite with upfront cash plus royalties, a licensing deal for AzaSite Plus in which Inspire has priority, bullish analyst coverage as a result of increased attention for Inspire and AzaSite, and further development of AzaSite Otic using the company's recent cash infusion.
Since TEXG is on the way to pass one million shares volume, I think I can post its chart and some comments without viloating ET policy. Man, imagine if just holded some shares from $1 bought a few days ago. This is the kind of winners/stocks I like to play, get in early before the big move, sell half at 50% or a double, ride the rest of shares for free. For stocks like this, get the capital back, and let the free shares run with it until a red day is coming, have to stick to the plan.
CEGE 4.65 x 4.66, I'm still holding, this is a swing trading stock, not sell for a few pennies gain, I will hold for dimes, hope it goes up that far, the stop is at 4.57.
nice nutso run on TEXG. i would have been looking to start my short entry earlier @3.5, adding more at 4.2 (and cognizant of the low float / RS) , but i can't find anyone who allows shorting OTCs like that one...
TUBR - I bought my shares back, but had to pay $0.08 more than what I sold in the morning. I waited for the dip, just won't come.
TEXG is being shorted. You would need some offshore accounts (EFGI/QUIN/LAMP - these MMs are the shorts) to make naked shorting. The run for the past couple days were mostly fueled by short squeeze. I could short it with my old broker through some tricks (provided I holded some shares overnight and does it through a straddle). Personally, I won't short it now at $4, its momo is still running high, think these $4 shorts could be squeezed again. Yes, it will die, and it will tank hard one day this week. Unless you have a lot $$$, shorted at $4 and watch it goes up to $5 is very painful. If I can short, I would short on the way down instead of on the way up, not doing counter-trend trading, a red day finish would do it, since the stock went up so high, I won't take a long trade either, just watch on the sideline.