Axiom #3: At major turning points the CROWD=THRONG is always wrong, no exceptions. We are there or super close, not in 2014, 2015, 2016 but yes, in 2017 The no-exceptions feature is always plagued with peril as there are always exceptions - not with Axiom#3 though. This one stands tall. When taxi drivers, bellboys, and regular 50k/yr stiffs are telling me, "I bought stocks because they will never go down again" = 100% all in = who's left to buy = where's the fuel going to come from to go to Las Vegas? Then quietly, without a sound, while nobody's watching, like LOVE, the TURN comes softly and without fanfare - and thus far the driver of the TURN, has always saluted me as he/she shoots past my STOP, with the whisper, "you and only you may go in peace" Therefore to me its a given that we are at just such a juncture where 100% or thereabouts are all IN. But what if this time, the gauge gets stuck at 100% because the cats are now selling everything they own and putting it in stocks? Surely this will delay the turn That's why I never want to call a TREND reversed until my STOP is taken out.
Two fellow TREND players (not followers, there is a difference, the latter is blind to the future, the former is always on the watch out for the signs of REVERSAL) in Johannesburg have invited me down for a week of "Township Jive" - after the historic turn takes place and all their savings put into stocks are cashed out by their STOP, identical to mine. Both were 45k/yr good-hearted working stiffs - in agony of DEATH from "wtf, this is Life?"
I would be giddy too if I had been long ES for as much time as you have. My question is this. How do you determine when to add contracts and pyramid on a winning position?
All the above corroborated by VIX arriving at historic low and if you switch to monthly where the real TREND power resides, see the Triple Bottom. When the neckline breaks, if ever it does, God, help us! Vix now in terminal wave southbound and the subdivisions of this terminal 5th wave suggest that it is close to completion. Careful amigos
Combine all of the above with today's S&P just a whisper away from its own golden ratio fiber of its bone marrow, namely 161.8%
That's the fun part. As soon as let's say prev. downtrend's STOP is taken out, I buy LONG 1 tranch on the spot, no hesitations. STOP under recent low. Then over the course of the next 4-16 weeks I buy more on each and every take out of a minor hill. As I approach the 2-4th month of the TREND and observe the angle of attack = ascent and we are not even complete with wave 1 up, I know that the master wave up is coming soon, so I pump in the biggest bucks I can dig up during the weeks of the first major correction Then I f**k off on a world trip. Weeks or months later when the killer upwave is in full tsunami mode and the bucks are pouring in like there's no tomorrow, I'm getting pussy like there's no tomorrow as they see it in my confidence/demeanor, I know the TREND is here to stay. I don't put in another dime in the market, I spend it all on good p**** so I'm broke till the next big TREND. Have not put a new dime in the current uptrend for years Ride the horse to its natural end.
Even for an elite trader the original concept accomplishment for why one got into trading in the first place remains elusive and/or evanescent. But not for Joe. One buys and the other sells and they both think they're smart You have a shot at getting out of your 50k/yr imprisonment if you could at least be like this little old lady Think man, think, you gots to escape from your jail, amigo A little old lady walks into the Bank of Canada with a bag of money. She insists that she must speak with the president of the bank. She tells the bank president that she has accumulated several hundred thousand dollars over the years and would like to open a trust in the bank. The president is curious, so he asks her, "Where did you get all this money?" The old lady replies, "I make bets." The president then asks, "Bets? What kind of bets?" The old woman says, "Well, for example, I'll bet you $25,000 that your balls are square." "Ha!" laughs the president, "That's ridiculous -- you can never win that kind of bet!" The old lady challenges, "So, would you like to take my bet?" "Sure," says the president, "I'll bet $25,000 that my balls are not square!" The little old lady says, "OK. I'll bring my lawyer with me tomorrow at 10 a.m. as a witness, and we'll see." The next morning, the little old lady appears with her lawyer at the president's office. "OK," she says, "Time to drop your pants and settle this bet." The president complies. The little old lady peers closely at his balls and asks if she could feel them. "Well, OK," says the bank president, "since there's so much money on the line." Just then, the lawyer starts banging his head against the wall. The president asks the old lady, "What the hell's the matter with your lawyer?" She replies, "I bet him $50,000 that at 10 a.m. today, I'd have the president of the Bank of Canada's balls in my hand."