mon: etn tues intc, mtb wed ebay, ibm, jpm thurs cof, mer, goog, isrg fri c, cat, slb here is my 2c....on your picks.... ETN on Monday.....I like the company and some large hedge/investment funds have been have been picking up shares of other companies like ETN, but not adding to any ETN....Heck the insiders dump some pretty large stock options just 2 weeks ago in this play.....Fridays volume showed pretty good support at 77.80 and some may be playing this to the upside, but I would not buy before the report....IMO...Limit buy orders at 74.20 and 72.06 would be a nice steal in a sell off...my only play on this one MTB on TUESDAY....Wow what a gamble....you do know that the banks are broke right.....Yes a trade able name, but only on the right days....This is the day of truth (happens 4 times a year)and you want to guess that day....GL and HF...No way I touch unless a 12%+ gap down!!!!! INTC on TUESDAY....17.90 Limit orders after the miss....I highly doubt Q1 went well for a chip upgrade cycle and net margins will most likely be reversing from a miss on revenue.... Not dogging on your picks but once again I would not be holding into earnings on any BIG NAME stock this quarter...WHY WHY WHY give back these rebound gains you made holding over the last month or two.... EBAY on Wednesday....Disposable income is the EBAY way and credit card debt is really pinching the pockets of most.....No way I play for discretionary spending on a growth target miss.... IBM on Wednesday.....A slightly better feeling here, but IBM at 52 week highs in this market....says take the money and run...Most downside risk here on a slightly bigger miss if it occurs...highly unlikely but A GE size drop very possible here... JPM on Wednesday....Anyones guess, but the JPM trade has been made already by the traders and the bag holders and institutional (dumb) funds will be the only ones holding....8% move one way or the other ....I will come back on Tuesday to give my outlook on Thurs and Friday picks......The market sentiment for this week will tell the story not the earnings.....Misses and bad sentiment well cause very strong moves lower and misses in a pickup in sentiment will cause for some really good bounce trading of oversold opens..... Just my 2 cents.....But good luck to all, but just know earnings plays in a bear market is a very dangerous game.... Maybe I play ELS on Monday, based on a increase in Canadian "Snowbirds" finding it cheaper to spend some time in the south at these resorts during the last few months....Remember they probably planned all this before the sh!t hit the fan in July 2007 and in October they were rich again to finalize the plans.....Just my 2 cents.....But a heck of a lot more thought than what you are giving... Maybe LLTC has promise on Tuesday, highly volatile name with some really 21st century technology...... IIIN on Tuesday a crappy steel company with a focus on re-bar used in large infrastructure such as buildings and highway(Love that highway bill that never stops spending)....Don't bet against J. Gendell...could be a nice beat here..BMI another J. Gendell play on Tuesday... Tuesday watchers include...CPY and CSX on an after announcement movers...up or down Wednesday play is my secret and I'm playing it large so no mention here...Good luck all.....Remember this is not advice, but more of a thought out approach to the way you should play the earnings game.... $COSTAverageMAN
Thank you $cost ! Excellent analysis and insight ! "Wednesday's play is my secret, and i'm playing it large so no mention here" is my biggest problem with sharing my goodies on ET, so I hear you. You obviously have done your DD. I don't follow the stocks I didn't put on the list, so I can only talk about those. Good analysis on etn, they just reported, and your analysis was on target. Let's see how stock reacts.. mtb I agree again is a tough call. Seems obvious, a "bank" disappointing, but not so sure. My best plays are wed and thurs from the list.
I changed my mind and shorted mtb. So mtb is now pick #2 => tale of the tape ============ 1) anf +2% (W)inner 2)
you must be done having fun with steve46 for a while. lol I too agree that you are a great contributor to the site. B
covered @ $84.5 proving -5% losses as likely. Ouch, have better ones for later in week... tale of the tape ============ 1) anf +2% (W)inner 2) mtb -4.5% (L)
Hi Bob, Not a earnings player but judging by the last few days looks like the tendency is for the earnings to push the stock in the opposite direction it's been moving for the past few days. So reaction on earnings - JPM - up - possible big reaction IBM - down - mild reaction already up on INTC EBAY - down - mild reaction On a psych basis general sentiment is against banks and will be for techs after INTC. Whatta ya think?
Thank you! Always a tough day when forced to stomach a loss. Not crazy about my covering price either as mtb slipped to $82 subsequently before rallying again. Don't feel quite as bold now...but I believe ibm is a short before they report, And so ibm is pick #3. Unless ibm cracks $119-120 and closes above that, it is a short around/on the close wed before they announce.
Well Tuesday went well for my choices.... IIIN gets a close up aound 8% and BMI up 14% after hours...LLTC just another strong day for them and a decent report..up around 4% over all... MTB....oops a large J. Gendell bank...."Never bet against him or Buffett"....
Excellent analysis $cost! And thanks for sharing your thoughts on this thread. Maybe you can bless my ibm trade, I need to be bailed out from the mtb bummer. What do you think?