I get this may be contradictory to my first statement about capacity but in truth I don’t know if it’s definite that the hospitals will reach capacity again in some areas. My point is the capacity issue is one people have forgotten but can make all of the difference in fatality rate. You and I disagree on this but I do think the people who were previously infected with Covid, and have natural immunity, is much more significant than we credit, although hard to gauge. I leave room for their immunity and ability to dampen illness and spread may be underestimated.
Well -- let's walk through some basic math from my earlier post on April 12th to take a look at the impact of those previously infected on the population. I will mention that the Delta variant which causes more breakthrough cases among the vaccinated and a higher level of re-infections will alter the math below. Of course vaccinations are open for 12 and older now which also impacts the calculations. Since Delta is more infectious (higher R value) the percentage level needed for herd immunity will also be greater -- the expected 70% level is most likely closer to 90% for Delta according to recent articles. Taken from an earlier post on April 12th - https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/the-biden-covid-vaccine.352858/page-31#post-5363566 Let's walk through some basic math. Even when 50% of the U.S. adult population achieves full vaccination we are still nowhere near herd immunity. 255 Million people in the U.S. population are 18 and older (2019) out of our 328 Million population. This is 77.7% of our population. If 50% of the U.S. adult population is vaccinated; this means that 38.8% of the U.S. population is vaccinated for a total of 127.5 Million people vaccinated. However we need to take in account the percentage of the adult population who have lasting natural herd immunity from catching COVID. The U.S. has experienced 32 Million COVID cases. For each proven case there appears to be 3 infections that were not caught with testing. This implies the U.S. has experienced 128 Million cases. Of these (following population distribution) 99.5 million were in adults 18 and over. Studies have shown that only 60% of people who caught COVID have antibody levels which provide immunity after 6 months. This means that 40% of people who caught COVID are not immune. This implies that only 76.8 Million of the people who caught COVID would have natural herd immunity in the U.S. However the accounting does not stop here; approximately 50% of the adults who previously got COVID have also been vaccinated. This means that (99.5 million adults * 60% effective * 50% got vaccinated) = 29.9 million adults must be subtracted from the "natural immunity" total since they actually are on the vaccinated list. This leaves 76.8 million minus 29.9 million people for a total of 46.9 million people in the U.S. have natural immunity which will last longer than 6 months. This means that 127.5 Million adults are vaccinated plus 46.9 million people with natural immunity (not on the vaccination list). This gives 174.4 Million people in the U.S. with immunity not accounting for that vaccines only have 78% to 95% efficacy. Herd immunity for COVID will require 70% of the population (229.6 Million people) to have immunity at minimum. We currently are only at 174.4 Million people (53.2%). We are making progress but there is further to go. Also there is a concern that herd immunity for a population will require closer to 85% of a population for COVID rather than 70%. Of course this calculation does not even consider that vaccines are less effective against COVID variants and that some people who caught COVID may not immune against most variants leading to re-infections. So the bottom line - get vaccinated to help the U.S. reach herd immunity, get back to normal, and stop further sickness across society. We still need more people to get vaccinated to achieve the necessary herd immunity levels -- the sooner the better.
Let's take a look at the DOJ statement on Monday... and good luck to the NFL coaches who are not unionized and can be fired at will for any cause. Federal law doesn't prohibit Covid-19 vaccine requirements, Justice Department says https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/26/politics/doj-covid-19-vaccine-requirements-olc-opinion/index.html Justice Department lawyers have determined that federal law doesn't prohibit public agencies and private businesses from requiring Covid-19 vaccines -- even if the vaccines have only emergency use authorization, according to an opinion posted online Monday. The opinion from the department's Office of Legal Counsel paves the way for more federal agencies and businesses to require vaccinations. The Department of Veterans Affairs announced on Monday that it will require many of its front-line health care workers to be vaccinated against Covid. The VA is the first in the federal government to require shots among its workers. Some colleges, both public and private, are requiring their students to get vaccinated before returning this fall. Governments -- particularly the state of California and New York City -- are also previewing plans to require vaccines for certain public workers. So far, opponents of vaccine mandates haven't had much luck in court when challenging the requirements. In June, a federal judge sided with a Houston hospital when employees sued to block its Covid-19 vaccine requirement. A federal court also rejected this month a request by students that it block Indiana University's vaccine requirement. In recent weeks, Justice Department officials have been weighing requests from private businesses and federal agencies seeking legal backing for policies aimed at encouraging vaccinations, according to people briefed on the matter. The opinion posted on Monday marks a shift from the Trump administration. Last year, Attorney General William Barr used the Justice Department's legal power to try to fight certain Covid restrictions. In its vaccine mandate opinion, which was dated July 6, the department's Office of Legal Counsel said that the law around so-called emergency use authorizations addresses the obligation that certain information be passed on to potential vaccine recipients. The law "does not prohibit public or private entities from imposing vaccination requirements for vaccines that are subject to EUAs," the opinion said. Nicholas Bagley, a University of Michigan law professor who specializes in administrative and health care law, told CNN in an email that the Justice Department had offered a "good legal analysis." But he was skeptical of the impact the opinion would have. The weaknesses in the legal arguments against vaccine mandates have "been apparent for a long time now," Bagley said. "If we see institutions change their minds about vaccine mandates, I suspect it'll have more to do with the way that risks associated with Delta have changed the assessment of the value of those mandates," Bagley said, referring to the Covid variant that is propelling a surge in cases among unvaccinated individuals.
Let's take a look at an an inveterate liar in action... Here we see the liar in one of his 3 standard modes... this is mode 2: douche, distract and obfuscate with walls of close to irrelevant posts he pretends have relevance to his lie.
So once again you have nothing factual to state... and are just tossing insults. Yes, this is your standard mode of operation.
hey lying douchebag... did you write this: 1. "Coaches can be let go for any reason without recourse -- and regularly are" Yes or No? 2. Is there any chance in hell that is a correct statement of the law in the United States of America? 3. Were you a full of shit liar when wrote that? yes or no?
Yes, coaching staff are regularly let go from NFL staff. They can be terminated for any reason. Some teams have gone through a large number of coaching staff members within a single season. For example when a new head coach is hired usually the entire coaching staff is immediately dismissed. Do you understand what "at-will" employment is. You claim to be a lawyer but your ignorance of basic employment law is incredible. The only supported standards for filing suit for unjust dismal are race, gender, age, etc. as defined by the EEOC --- vaccination status is not on the list.
This is why you we tell you you are lying your ass off then you douche and distract like a moron. you are too stupid to understand when you are stupid. El Ocho already explained this too you but you were too dumb and obstinate to even consider what he was telling you. ( you have D/K problems on steroids.) So here is a hypo I might have brought out on the first day of business law class which I taught for full semester at a community college for my co-worker who had a heart attack. I assure 95 to 100 percent of the students would get the point immediately. ---- Can a coach hired under an "at will contract" be fired by the owner of the team when the owner decides he does not want a person of that race or gender to be the head coach? Tell us your answer and why?
The top is not firing due to race or gender of the coach -- which are protected classes. But firing due to vaccination status which is not protected --- and the DOJ came out on Monday and stated federal law allows firing based on vaccination status. Once again do you understand even the basics of At-Will Employment. Either party can be terminate the employment relationship at any time for any reason.