Against the ten year baseline average there were 65600 excess deaths in England and Wales this year so far. One can expect that for the rest of the year fewer than normal will die as some who have died, would die later in the year of other causes. We can also expect the sanitary precautions for Covid to significantly reduce the seasonal cold and flu associated deaths. Covid may more than make up the difference but the all cause deaths should be fairly tame from here I imagine.
It depends on the experts. Experts of any field should be open to data - and the changing of that data (or the evolution of it). So many people now a days, expert or otherwise cannot accept when something that should change their perspective comes around. Probably because so much of what we are being given to digest is so flawed.
This is a good point, though I cannot see the post you made it to. But in a health/pandemic situation, we should always err to the side of caution. But when we identify errors in reporting, we should correct them immediately - not make excuses as to why it doesn't matter, or insult each other because it aligns with a political narrative.
Bugenhagen said: The Daily Mail reporting the heath minister saying they were "over-exaggerating" numbers...
Tsing, as I recall, you have school-aged children and you live in Florida. Do you want them physically attending school before Fauci and the CDC give the matter the green light? Or is even that up for debate?
I do. I have a 12 year old. Florida schools are delayed two weeks, but they are also offering parents the choice to send children to school virtually or in person. You just have to opt for the virtual learning. We are opting for in person. My reasoning for this is based on the extremely limited risk that children have for Covid. Here are the CDC's actual death totals by demographic. These are available on the CDC website, if you wish the link I can provide it. As you can see, my child would fall into the demographic where 31 children nationwide died from the Covid-19 virus. This is so small that it isn't even a rounding error. Add to this that the children that actually died had additional pathology that added to their risk. Mine is a healthy 12 year old who plays soccer. Additionally, my wife and I are very healthy runners (and other activities) and we have no issues at all either, and we take no medications (other than supplements). My parents are living in NJ and in total isolation and are so afraid they won't step outside, much less on a plane. We won't be seeing them any time soon. As such, we are in a very, very low risk bucket as a family. Instead, I'm seeing the effects on my son of no socialization, no sports and having to spend all day online. He's gaining weight, he's becoming more irritable and argumentative (outside of the normal tween behavior) and generally becoming more anti-social. The downside risk of staying home far outweighs the downside risk of him going to school, and this is what I've based my decision on.
You make a reasonable argument, but remember that healthy young and middle age adults with no underlying conditions have succumbed to the virus. Not is large numbers, perhaps, but still enough that it should give you and your wife some pause. Whatever animus may exist between us, I wish you and your family well.