Major Recession or a New Depression?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by SouthAmerica, Jan 3, 2008.

  1. .

    January 3, 2008

    SouthAmerica: If you think 2007 was a bad year then just wait for what is in the pipeline for 2008.

    One thing you can count on for sure in 2008 – we will have lots and major turmoil in the financial markets.

    I made my predictions for 2008 about 3 years ago when I wrote the following article:

    Published on February 17, 2005 on Brazzil magazine.
    “The First Great Depression of the New Millennium” By Ricardo C. Amaral

    The question is: In 2008, is the perfect storm going to turn into a deep recession or the beginning of a new depression?

    What a massive economic mess the new president will inherit from the Bush administration in January of 2009. The new US president will inherit a wreckage of a country.

    No wonder Al Gore doesn’t want to run for president in 2008.


    Quoting from the above mentioned article: "After a number of new terrorist attacks inside the United States, the market dynamic of all these events combined to cause a major institutional collapse in the derivatives market, and that started a domino effect in the entire financial system causing a massive meltdown.

    Panic among the major holders of US dollar also contributed to the stampede like we had never seen before - and at the end, Chernobyl looked like nothing when compared with the final meltdown of the US dollar, and US economy during the summer of 2006."

    I hope we will not have any terrorist attack in the US in the future including 2008.

    But the way, the way things are going today in the US financial markets it will not be necessary for a new terrorist attack to happen in the US for a possible derivatives market meltdown.

    When I wrote the article I did not catch a typo error when I wrote during the summer of 2006 - It was supposed to read "during the summer of 2008."

  2. OKguy


    while very young and older but green people on this site will show up to scold you

    I simply deal with facts, Oil going to 150

    Gold going to 1500,

    dollar going to hell (I don't know what number to assign, but its "bad")

    inflation of 8% and rising

    monthly bus ticket where I live went from 34 bucks to 74 in 7 yrs

    I am sure I amuse you guys, but pretty soon you will all see things my way :(
  3. Lots of waffle and little substance. Just another doomsday scenario without any concrete areas of analysis to base the prediction on.

    Basically it is nothing else than a simplistic attack on GW's personality (or lack of it) and a free ride on the rising negative sentiment against the rising US deficits and the falling dollar.

    So what? My grandma and her friends were talking about the same stuff in the same way at their daily tea time chit chat gathering without having to write it down anywhere.

    If you get an unlimited number of monkeys in one place hitting random keys on a typewriter, eventually one of them will write something that will make sense to somebody somewhere or even Hamlet!

    Sorry mate, good try but you still have a way to go in your oracle career!

    Keep trying, though.
  4. Could develop into an interesting thread SA.

    Oddly enough, one of the great battles in ´08 will be fought in US suburbs.
    There are those among us who greatly hope that the RE correction, remains just that ... a correction.
    However, what if we are witnessing the death of the mindless ´burbs together with their equally mindless malls etc.

    When you add upside down mortgages to CC debt to car financing, middle america is tapped all out and stagflation has yet to rear it´s ugly head.

    Moving on slightly, oil is no longer a commodity, it is the new weapon of choice.
    I have seen postings here on ET "send in the marines" Well that has already been tried and has turned out to be one of the key drivers in the shambles of´08.

    All in all you are quite right SA. ´08 is shaping up to be a most interesting year.

  5. OKguy


    trademomentum I think you have working eyes which means you have a non-working brain

    take a look at OIL and GOLD and DOLLAR chart

    and now please find me a reason WHY things will change

    can you ???????

    things will not change things will get worse

    oh and it wouldn't kill you to use the situation to make shitload of $$$ like me,

    you arrogant little child
  6. Hey OnePostGuy, are you having a conversation with yourself or what?

    I was referring to the qualitative 'prediction' of the article supposedly written in 2005 and the lack of substance thereof.

    As I said before, maybe 3/4 of the world's population has been predicting a doomsday for the american empire year after year. Looking at history, one day that might well come true.

    But if you want to be the 'genius' who accurately predicted the time frame for it, you will need to work harder than this. Your competition is quite large.

  7. Why not place the doomsday concept to one side and try to imagine where ´08 is going to take you and what changes it will require from you.

  8. Well, I am not too worried about it. I do not believe it will happen in my life time, just another market correction for now. So I just go about my business as usual, building up the inheritance for my children.

    On the other hand, people like Jim Rogers just moved to Singapore as a countermeasure and to find better trade opportunities.

    What would you do?
  9. Given the the egocentric perspective of the human species, they frequently see themselves at the center of the next melodrama of life on earth, real or imagined. Now in some poor souls this characteristic is exaggerated - check this thread and others.

    The last recession was so mild most people didn't even notice it.
    #10     Jan 3, 2008