Major 2011 Themes: Your Forecasts

Discussion in 'Economics' started by MrGoodwill, Nov 22, 2010.

  1. What's your major 2011 theme forecasts? Both economics and strategy-wise. Here's mine:

    China's increasing position as a world consumer

    Bubble in EM

    High oil prices

    Gold correction

    US Bond yields heading higher
  2. Markets will be driven by what does or doesn't happen with global terror events.
    1. North Korea lets a nuke loose on South Korea. Probability, about 6 in 10.
    2. Israel atacks Iran, covertly or otherwise, which results in a dramatic increase in global terror events. Probability, 8 in 10.

    Either event happens, take DOW to 7000, oil to 150+, gold to 3000.

    Neither event happens, DOW to 12500, oil 80-100, gold 1100.

    Plan will be to trade with a slightly bullish bias with a hedge for a rapid meltdown should global events go sour.
  3. ?....You're bearish? Excellent! :D
  4. A boring mundane year where IPO's are forced and stagflation is battled against with some avail. The new congress keeps the economic funnel full enough to keep the system going.

  5. Probability goes from 6 in 10 to 8 in 10.

    SEOUL, South Korea – North and South Korea exchanged artillery fire Tuesday after the North shelled an island near their disputed sea border, killing at least two South Korean marines, setting dozens of buildings ablaze and sending civilians fleeing for shelter.

    The skirmish began when Pyongyang warned the South to halt military drills in the area, according to South Korean officials. When Seoul refused, the North bombarded the small South Korean-held island of Yeonpyeong, which houses military installations and a small civilian population.

    South Korea returned fire and dispatched fighter jets in response, and said there could be considerable North Korean casualties as troops unleashed intense retaliatory fire. The supreme military command in Pyongyang threatened more strikes if the South crossed their maritime border by "even 0.001 millimeter," according to the North's official Korean Central News Agency.

    Government officials in Seoul called the bombardments "inhumane atrocities" that violated the 1953 armistice halting the Korean War. The two sides technically remain at war because a peace treaty was never signed.

    The exchange was a sharp escalation of the skirmishes that flare up along the disputed border from time to time, and come amid high tensions over North Korea's claim that it has a new uranium enrichment facility and just six weeks after North Korean leader Kim Jong Il unveiled youngest son Kim Jong Un as his heir apparent.
  6. QE2&3 don't work
    Yields on the 10yr Treasury bond drop to 1.5%
    France leaves the EMU and reintroduces the Franc