hey, this is what I found in your first post: ''However, when looking over my trades very closely, I find that the majority of the losing trades have been due to my lack of self-discipline to follow the rules exactly.'' I'm no expert on the subject but it seems to me you have it a bit upside-down.. Discipline,in the first place,is needed WHEN CREATING THE RULES OF TRADING,a model if you wish..scientific discipline that is ,and not one that tells you to wake up at 6 every day for example people often have problems following their 'systems' just because they don't want to admit that they don't trust them..why is that? might be that they didn't or couldn't apply disciplined ,scientific thinking into creating their models ..which means their 'systems' are biased.. so would there be a need for some special 'discipline' to follow a faulty model? It'll get even more absurd if you were to seek a professional psychological help in this case and , god forbid,he would help you overcome your fears sorry it this's been dealt before..
The chances that you have an objective,working model are next to none..it's as if you just discovered a vaccine for covid19 all by yourself so perhaps, some part of your brain is 'trying to save you from yourself' ? I wonder if a real good psychologist would figure that out first he would need some real good knowledge on the markets and models + psychology..well,if he had it he probably wouldn't be there to help you ban me if you want, I'm not coming back..cheers
Thanks for sharing your thoughts! When I wrote: "I find that the majority of the losing trades have been due to my lack of self-discipline to follow the rules exactly." I was referring to a few indicators that I use as rules that I should not trade against. I have it written in my trading plan not to countertrend trade against them, yet I often do. I do have exceptions.....say a double top could mean a change in direction, so I have an exception to take trades that go against the trend in a case like that. But I was referring to the trades that had no reasoning in my rules to take, but I took because I FELT like the market was going to do something. Those trades I have a very low percentage of getting. So, why do I take them? Usually 3 factors: 1. I think price might go a certain direction and I want to test if I am right (this is the primary reason). 2. I'm bored and there are simply no safe trades to enter and I don't want to wait to take a trade. 3. When I've lost a trade or I'm in drawdown, I will sometimes revenge trade and not follow any rules at all...when I look over my trades after revenge trading, sometimes they are great, because I'm taking higher risks, yet the trades worked (because I tend to trail longer and that sometimes is more profitable) and sometimes revenge trading is worse than the original losses because I am not being selective in my entries and break all my rules. However, one thing that you brought out is true: "they don't trust them..why is that? might be that they didn't or couldn't apply disciplined ,scientific thinking into creating their models" I've known for a long time that I need to have very precise entry rules, but I seem to freeze up whenever I sit down and try to work on making them. I have general rules and a general map of how I should trade, but my brain is refusing to limit trades to only certain scenarios. I have tried to make specific rules, and I have folders of screenshots of trades that I use as examples for what to look for. But I can't seem to go beyond tendencies and general rules. I'm not sure if that is because I don't like having rules that are inflexible or if it's because price action is never quite exactly the same, there are so many variations of a general pattern, that I haven't wanted to stick with one pattern that rarely appears and miss out on good price action. I have this feeling that if I just keep at trading, eventually I will recognize patterns more and more and it will be easier to isolate what works and what doesn't and make rules out of them. One reason for switching to the premarket is that it appears to have less variables in price action compared to the craziness of the first hour of trading after the open. Maybe I'm wrong about that. Time will tell. But if that is true, then it should be easier to find repeating patterns or tendencies and build solid rules like, "when such and such happens, I will always take this trade because it usually does this."
I don't think any of that is true. Surgeons will spend many years studying AND practicing before attempting difficult surgeries. A 10 year old isn't going to be able to perform a brain tumor removal even if he has the intelligence to read a book on how to do it. Just knowing the tendencies price action does and learning from others what has worked for them isn't enough to make a good trader. It takes a lot of experience of blowing up accounts and learning to recognize what NOT to do as well as what TO do. Thankfully, with brain surgeons, I don't think they mess up as much as we traders do. Maybe there's something to be said for trying really hard to be precise and not make mistakes.
Hello, Have you proven that your rules/method/strategy have a proven quantified edge over XXX to X,XXX amount of trades via back test manual or via a automated back testing trading platform? If yes, please post the trading performance and stats to prove it. Post the equity curve. If no, now you know the root cause of your problem. It's not mental, your method have no Edge. Please respond with only Yes or No only Also, did the teacher of the method prove to you his/her rules/method/strategy have a proven quantified edge over XXX to X,XXX amount of trades via back test manual or via a automated back testing trading platform? Please respond Yes or No only. If no, now you know the root cause of your problem. It's not mental, wherever the method comes from have no Edge.
"Have you proven that your rules/method/strategy have a proven quantified edge over XXX to X,XXX amount of trades via back test manual or via a automated back testing trading platform? If yes, please post the trading performance and stats to prove it. Post the equity curve." Here are the results from one trial I ran: It was hard to automate all my rules, but this has the basics. It didn't work using the tight stop losses that I use. Instead, I had to run it using a larger stop loss of 50 ticks and a 150 tick target during the hours I (used to) trade over a 2 month period. This trial only used 1 contract. Just knowing that the method works isn't enough to help me trade it right in real life. If you look at the partial list of daily net profits or losses, there were some days it lost. So, I keep trying to improve on this so that I can have a more consistent win rate and not have drawdowns. It could be that my "improvements" and adding my subjectivity to it, are keeping me from trading it profitably. Also, it wasn't taking a lot of trades per day. It took around 5 trades a day. I have been overtrading and taking many more than that. And now, as I posted yesterday in my wrap up for the week, I only trade the premarket, so that will reduce the amount of trading opportunities unless I overscalp. But the basic method for entering and exiting are the same, just in the premarket there is generally less volatility, so I will have my stop loss smaller and targets smaller.
Hello, Is this equity curve and trading performance metrics produced from an automated trading system or from you manual trading?
Hello, Great! If you are using time bars, please back test your strategy using NT Strategy Analyzer from 2007 until 2021 and review your results. Please add commissions and 2 tick slippage to all of your trades if you are using Market Orders to enter trades and stop market orders to exit trades. Use 1 tick slippage if you are using limit orders to enter and limit orders for profit target for all trades. Post your trading performance metrics and equity curve for the strategy. Does this show edge? Please respond with Yes or No.
Well, I would if I could, but I can't...because it was a trial version of Bloodhound last summer I was using and I don't have access to it anymore. However, you've got me interested in backtesting again and I'm looking into the capabilities of Sierra Chart. Unfortunately, I have zero programming skills so their more complicated backtesting methods I'm not sure if I will even attempt to try. They have an "easy" method, but I don't know if it can do much and it will probably take me the next week to figure it out...and I'm not sure if there's a way to access data from as far back as you want on Sierra Chart. Also, the volatility changes around on the NQ, so what would work with 50 ticks for a stop loss then may not now.....I have to readjust everyday that I trade. Thanks for the interest!