I think trying to learn to trade with only one or two trades a day has been a big adjustment to my thinking. I used to think that by taking a lot of trades in a day, I'd eventually distinguish between good and bad entries, but it seems it just gave me the tendency to take trades carelessly. So, going back to demo will give me the opportunity to work on getting accuracy down before trying live again. Switching to live trading, AND using a system (30 sl and 60 tp) that I'm still shaky on, AND suddenly not being able to take stupid, thoughtless, high risk trades, has been an adjustment and too much to do at once. So, gonna take this real slow.
Here is today's trade compared with a day from last week, showing similar price action to today's...yet price continued going higher instead of dropping. Not trying to say I followed my rules, because trading into resistance is not following my rules, but I am trying to see if I can find clues on the chart to why one day it went up and another day it dropped. I'm pretty sure it was because I've remembered days like this, that sometime price just keeps pushing up and hardly pulls back, that I made the decision to take today's trade. However, remembering generalized price tendencies isn't going to help with seeing the tiny clues that give warnings about what price is likely to do. That's why I need to study better and make a list. So, first entry to my list of chart patterns and tendencies is going to be this picture of both charts with a few observations attached to it. It could be that trading in an area like I did is very risky....sometimes might work, sometimes might not. So, trades like these I want to eliminate from my options for set ups. Here's what I was thinking today: I did see the resistance and knew it was a late entry, but thought it was worth the risk that it could push through it...so what I need to really focus on is waiting for the best set ups, not the ones that have problems with them. I'm not finding them happening as often as I used to think they did.
Right. I've been looking over the 15 minute charts for both days. It's easier to see the trend up using those charts, but that didn't give as clear clues about the perfect entry. A 5 minute might be better....but I'll compare those later. The one hour was interesting to compare also. Both were good trend days up, but timing a good entry was different for each day...finding the area of support for both days was probably the clue to look for on these 15 minute charts.
Just thought of a better plan than switching to demo only: I will take 2 trades a day in demo, just as I would like to in a live account. However, if I happen to see a set up that I really like, I can take one trade live and it doesn't matter if I've taken trades in the demo account. On those days I will probably have 3 trades taken in a day. That's not that many. The benefit to this is that I can wait for something I feel more confident about. Yesterday's price action I really didn't like. It made it's push up right away, and I haven't wanted to trade in the first 15 minutes with only a 30 tick stop loss and one try, so I'm trying to avoid those times, although I will take something if it seems right, during that time. Then after that it ranged for a long time and the range wasn't large enough to get 60 ticks safely, unless I got in at a bottom or top, and that's not in my plan, and then I got the direction wrong on the trade I took, but I wouldn't have traded yesterday if I didn't feel like I needed to...like it's a job where you show up for work and do your work. Staying out doesn't seem right, but it's better than losing money and now I wish I had stayed out yesterday and I wish I hadn't traded where I did today. I didn't like the price action today either up to where I got in. So, if I hadn't felt like I'd better take a chance because this might be the last opportunity to know how to get in...without chasing the market (that's what I imagined was going to happen), then I would probably have stayed out, because I didn't really like going long at resistance. So, it's worth a try, anyhow. If I see what I like, then I can take a trade live. And those days might happen rarely. There's only a few set ups that I am really comfortable with. And if I can't seem to get those trades either, then at least I know I tried.
Made 30 ticks, live account. Closed trade early because it kept hitting resistance and I had entered the trade too late. Didn't follow my rules....and I really intended not to change them, but my rules are both good and harmful....so I don't plan on taking any more trades today. I plan on trying to think through how I want to trade. Problem with rules: I like multiple low risk entries....where I can move to BE quickly, and still get a chance to make a lot of $$. Problem: My BE's get taken out too quickly.... Solution: Have a stop loss that I can lose money on. Another Problem: This method leads to overtrading and NOT picking the best entries, but relies on chances to work. Solution: Use a set stop loss size and target and don't adjust them Problem: Preset stop losses don't always work well with price action and logical placement Solution: Use a very tight stop loss: 2 tight stop losses will give 2 chances for every well-placed stop loss Problem: This also leads to overtrading (multiple stop outs of a good trade) Solution: Take more Trades Problem: I have a trading addiction to taking too many trades. Solution: I will only take one trade live per day. Problem: That prevents me from trading the low risk way and multiple entries (chances) that I like to trade Solution: ???????? That's what I'm going to try to work on today Another problem: After getting into a trade, as price action develops, it's easier to see if a trade should be closed or held onto, and having a set stop loss and target prevent adjusting to what price is doing. Solution: Have a plan to trail price. Problem: There are a lot of ways to trail price. Solution: Pick one to always work with or write out rules for which trailing method to use based on certain criteria. Writing out a plan for this is something else I will work on today. Problem: I keep making poor decisions for entering trades. Solution: I don't have clear rules written out keeping me from delayed or just poorly taken trades Work on writing up more rules for my entries...such as STOP taking delayed entries and chasing price Problem: When I was profitable last month (demo) I let my winners run and trailed. This 30 sl and 60 tp doesn't let me get those gains. Those gains are what undo all my bad entries, or trades that were good and didn't work. Solution: Take better entries. Trail instead of set stop loss. I'm leaning more towards changing my rules to the following: 1. No more delayed entries. 2. I might let myself have multiple entries as long as I don't take a loss. (Move to BE and getting stopped out is OK). This is just one way to trade that reduces risk...but still gives a good opportunity to catch a move. 3. I want to trail and stay in moves longer. So much for keeping to my rules. I only lasted 8 trading days. I know I said I wouldn't change them. As much as I'd like to get really accurate and good with 30 sl and 60 tp, I think it's also keeping me from getting in at the right places....because I don't "know" what price will do, and I don't have the freedom to adjust the trade, so I wait too long, until I "know" what price has done, and that's when it stops doing what it's doing. HERES THE REAL reason for changing my rules. I did see good entries when they happened, but since I'm trying so hard to be right, I didn't take them, or like yesterday's demo trade, it was delayed. It wasn't that I didn't see where the trade entry was, it was delayed because where I wanted to enter had some risk associated with it....I didn't have confirmation it WAS the right entry, so by waiting for confirmation, the entry was delayed, and the stop loss was taken because a 30 tick stop loss has to be timed right or it doesn't give enough play to the trade. So, if making these changes works the way I'm hoping it will, I will take set ups like yesterday's demo trade a little earlier and possibly be able to stay in the trade...or get taken out at BE, but get the chance to re-enter a trend up, at a retracement...and both are good opportunities for low risk entries to a trend....and I'm missing them because my rules are too restrictive. By changing my entry rules to allow for adjusting, I can enter at those areas and get out quickly if they don't work. The basic structure of a 30 tick stop loss to 60 tick target I'm not changing. I like the smaller stop loss size. Maybe I'll change that in the future, but it's not part of my plan to change for now. It's managing the trade that I'm wanting to change. I also see the danger in not having rules, or having rules to break rules, and I don't want to go down that road either. I think....or at least, I hope, I can write up some very clear rules that I like, that are the way I like to trade, that will help me get low risk entries that I can work with and have a very clear plan for trailing....when to move to BE, a more loosely structured trailing at the beginning, and as price continues in my favor, to tighten the trailing. I might need to adjust my new rules too, but I think it's good to try to keep improving...finding what's not working well and trying to improve.
I said I would take this real slow, and it is going very slowly. Made 3 ticks in the live account today. Hard to see the trade very well with the 1 minute chart, but I closed it right away, before the 1 min candle retraced up. Had I stayed in, using a 30 sl, the trade would have worked. But the reason for closing the trade was that it wasn't entered according to my rules. I took the trade following some rules, but not others. I had thought that if it looked like it was going to drop I would wait for a good entry....instead I jumped in without waiting. A good entry never came, just like it never came for the trend up. There were places to enter in both trends, but none of them followed my rules exactly and I stayed out (except for this trade). I'm still working on what rules I'm going to have. I'm using a new worksheet to journal my trades and keep track of following my rules. It's not set up yet, but I have a few rules in it and I plan to post at least some of them here each day. For the demo account I just followed my regular 30 sl 60 tp (with the automatic move to 14 sl at 30 ticks profit). That went well, but they were probably not trades I would take live either, because they were just trading the morning breakout, not really entering according to any other structure. Although if I can get consistency trading the morning breakout, then I will trade it live.
Good question!!!! Sometimes I wonder about this too. It may look like I'm trading not to lose, but I don't have my rules written out yet and I want to be sure they are rules that will help me not to lose AND be sure to win. And I don't want to trade without clear rules...because I've learned that I cannot trust myself. Just wait and see.....eventually, far off into future perhaps, I'll consistently get into the full trend of the day and do it without having gone into much drawdown or taken on much risk at all.
Do you not trust that you have a method that has an edge or do you not trust that you can follow the method?