He won't win because he is not running against the spectre of Bush in '12 like he was in '08. You all should go back and review the '08 election and see how he (they) were able to sway the electorate.
Let's make a bet. I'll bet you lunch at the Capital Grille, Chicago or Lombard. I'd prefer Lombard, but let's say winners choice. I say Obama wins in 2012. Wanna bet? http://www.thecapitalgrille.com/Locations/Lombard/Main.asp http://www.thecapitalgrille.com/Locations/Chicago/Main.asp
Contrary to Democratic belief, Obama is stupid and blind. The next financial crash in the fall of 2012 won't work in his favor.