Main Causes of the Great Depression

Discussion in 'Economics' started by myminitrading, Jul 31, 2006.

  1. hans37


    My contention is the answer is no.
    I do not think a depression in the traditional sense is possible now.
    I think it would be replaced by stagflation and potentially high unemployment.

    Once we floated our currency that was the end of the possibility of universally falling prices as in a depression.
    #61     Aug 2, 2006

  2. I know it's tough to imagine but it has happened several times throughout history. France when Jean Law thought the same way you do, and what's funny is that he really really believed printing fiat currency was the answer, while the others in the know were grabbing gold & silver and running like hell. It was straight up inflation which ended as hyperinflation and collapse.

    An example of inflation causing a severe depression, you should look at Germany during reparations period. Not a great example because Germany was like a pariah. But US is not very far from that point.

    Argentina is interesting but their currency was pegged, not floating. Still, something you can learn.

    Russia during 1990s had several hyperinflation periods and it all resulted in economic turmoil. There were many other problems too, corruption, complete lack of policies, etc. And their fiat currency scam was just blatant, there was no need to try hard on a population.

    In general, you can look at most third world nations that have floating currencies. Hyperfinflation periods are normal, the economies are unstable, unsafe and basically crap.

    Like I said, this has never happened with the leader of the world. Especially a country with the most powerful military. There is no chance that US military will fall apart like USSR's because USA makes sure to make military spending a priority. If anything, US resembles N. Korea in that aspect. I think it will be a slow and grueling process as USA is slowly discredited and the illusion shattered.

    Remember that a nation's currency represents its economic strength. So let's say the dollar gets dumped. My guess is that it will be reflected in US capital markets which may make quite a few REAL assets dirt cheap, yet shunned at by the vast majority. Everytime there is a pyramid collapse, the few rich get richer and consolidate power & wealth while the rest are fleeced.
    #62     Aug 2, 2006
  3. From what I have read, after WWI, the U.S. gov. took a policy stand that we needed much greater food production capacity. (This may have had an element of wisdom, as they reflected on the explosive qualities of the Treaty of Versailles). They then went on a campaign to strongly encourage all U.S. farmers to heavily leverage their infrastructure. The ensuing crash in Ag commodities started well before 1929, but was no less ferocious than the equities crash.

    I have heard anecdotally of farmers in Iowa, after forclosure, walking into the bank and shooting the Pres of the bank. From this culture we still have true histories/legends like "Bonnie and Clyde."

    These local populations were definately victims and were definately fleeced.

    Against this backdrop we had large numbers of otherwise intelligent people playing the 1929 tulip mania in equities (with 10% equity, not 50% like today's Reg T). These foolish speculators were definately not victims or fleeced.

    In our current times, if the gov is foolishly leading investors into a trap, it is taxation of housing: property tax deduction, mortgage interest deduction, 500K long term capital gain exclusion.

    So, if it turns out that someone who takes out a home equity loan to buy a condo in Las Vagas, a Chevy Suburban, and a vacation to Fiji for the whole family, if that person gets wiped out, were they fleeced?
    #63     Aug 6, 2006