Good timing on my part getting out early on ELN this morning the stock closed at 30 and possibly higher tomorrow. That would have been a lost on the strangle. I follow my plan here, closed out a position as soon as what you expect to see is what you expected or not. Never wait for it to come back either way. JRCC is moving even higher with above average volume today. with 3 days left the vertical I just sold is looking OK. tomorrow I am looking for a small pullback on lower volume but of course if it gap again I'll take it and run. If it pullback on higher volume I am out. SVNT is going back and forth not much happening until some news hit. I don't see anything coming till after Friday.
Well its pass mid-day and JRCC is still up 3+ point with heavy volume. My 55,50 vertical is now way in the money. I closed the 45,40 vertical @.2. The only way this stock lose steam is when the coal spot price goes down or flatline and it doesn't look like this is going to happen anytime soon. If I was very adventurous the july 65,55 vert looks really good. I'll have to see what happen to the spot prices on monday. SVNT status quo
JRCC add a shade under $5 today and sit at 59.50. My vert is well in the money and I'll try to close it out late tomorrow or let it exp. I don't see a top for it yet so I'll probably try to roll in on Monday or so. My outlook for next month will be getting back in MYGN before the phase III data announcement and rolling into JRCC. I'll keep an eye out for other opportunity on my list.
well JRCC pulled back delay by 1 day but I expected it. I closed the 50 put for .2 I am only holding the 55 basically naked. I am anticipating a consolidation to 55 tomorrow from the close of 56.25 today. It will be exp Friday tomorrow and volatility could drive it down to 53 but I don't think it will go much lower then that, anywhere from 53 and up and I am very happy. I'll let SVNT expire no need to buy back.
gobar, I never held a naked call on JRCC, I think you were mistaken by my final holding of 10 jun 55 naked put from my Jun 55,50 vertical put position after I sold off the 50 put. check the picture below if you didn't read thru my posts above. I try to never go against the trend and a naked call in this stock is like a penny lying on the track waiting for the starlight express. BTW this is my 2 month anniversary for this account and I can safely say that I manage to doubled my initial deposit of 8K to 16K+. I'll do an analysis of my first two month and post the final numbers on the weekend when everything is settled from my account.
JRCC: just sold 10 july 80,60 put vertical right before the final bell @14.00. I wanted to add something to this but I couldnt edit the original post. break even price is 66.25. planning to sell back the 60 put when the underlying is above 68-70 this is to offset the rapid decay on the long 60 put. after that I am planning to eat premium down to about 64 will close this position by July 7 if the underlying is not above 65
This is an overview and break down of what happened in the past two months since this account was opened. Initial deposit = $8000 Net Increase in value = $8782.78 Commission paid to TOS = $732.20 Final balance as of 6/22/2008 = $16,052.14 I manage to double this account using my plan. This was not unexpected but was faster then I thought. My plan relied on high probability winning trade so the total of losing trade was keep to a minimum, in fact there was only 2 losing trade and one wash trade this period. My main focus this period was high vol biotech stock with pending news but there was a few momentum play such as C and JRCC. During this time, I only have 2 position open at any one time, so not to overextend my margin usage in case of an increase in price volatility. I was going to recap each position but I think I did a good job of explaining my reasoning when I put on those position. I still have an open position on JRCC with 10 July 80,60 put vertical(bull put spread). coal spot prices continue to increase week over week and JRCC is begining to pick up contracts, so they are actually benefiting from the price increase. Some say this is a commodity bubble and some say not but I only care about coal spot prices and momentum. Until the spot price decrease I dont see a down side to this stock. I'll also be looking to buy 15 80,45 strangle on monday to hedge the down side risk. With these two position if by July exp. the price is between 45-60 I gain/lose $0, if the price is from 60-80 I gain from $0 to the max, and from 80-88 I gain max to $0 again. Of course I will be adjusting my position so I wont actually be gaining $0 from 45-60. This will be my only position for this month until I unwind it.