I have tested several charting packages..and with them all..i have observed price moving so rapidly on the DOM that the chart never updated..even under normal conditions the standard chart is lagging the DOM with one of the packages..one package had the ability to show DOM levels on the chart..but they were way out of sync..when I queried it I was told to change a setting to TRY and get them to sync..but this might screw up the standard chart updating..WTF..tell me how a pleb is supposed to compete with the big financial institutions that have multi million dollar systems that are directly linked into the exchanges..no way hosey..it will never be accomplished..no matter what bullshit the brokers and software companies put out there..just more of the same "keep the cannon fodder coming" stuff
Don't blame yourself, it is your method/strategy that is flawed if it cannot detect trend and reversal. In other words, sounds like you were just guessing, gambling.
It's worse than that. I go into these automatic behavior mode and automatic countertrend thinking mode. Even though I've review these types of trades and setups thousands of times it seems like the subconscious mind just take over. I'm going try to be an observer and CATCH myself before I do anything stupid like that again. Tonight I was presented with another strong trend. I did not countertrend it. Whew. Learning from my mistakes. But I shouldn't be afraid of heights. Should have jumped in for the big supertrendy ride. Next time. Not doing stupid things is saving money from bad trades and losses. Avoid doing bad things can do wonders to P&L. Then next step is capitalizing on good moves.
You are right. I had a really FLAWED methodology AND FLAWED psychology. It was gut wrenching last Thursday and Friday. And I swore to myself that was the last time I will countertrend in unconscious automatic fashion. Then I ate some humble pie and admitted that I was impatient to enter too soon. Of course, after taking big losses last Thursday and Friday NG bottomed and rallied hard today. This is the day I should have gone long. Don't predict. Let the market guide you. So, tonight, I started trading another instrument. Made more in the AH markets than my entire profits in the RTH session! lol. All going long and with the trend. I think I would have made more if I just buy and hold. But I can't sit through the pullbacks. I bought and got out at the local highs/maxima. Waited for a publlback. Bought back in and rode it for a few more points then sold. Wash. Rinse. Repeat. Sometimes the publlback never came so I bit the bullet and bought it anyway and rode it up again. Wash. rinse. repeat. I'm really proud that I ate humble pie and admitted I was wrong and totally changed 180 degrees and followed the trend accordingly no matter how strong it is. Who knows how high is high. It can go to infinity. Or how low is low. Well there is a lower bound called 0. So last Thursday, I did not countertrend but I just sat there and watch. While not making mistakes is saving money and not hurting your P&L, it was not exactly what I wanted out of this exercise. So, today I not only watched but PARTICIPATED in the strong rally. In and out. Kaizen. Constant and never ending improvements. Incremental progress adds up to huge progress over time.
Yes! I had made money on the way up. Then I attended to family stuff. The trend reversed. Was too late to short. But I didn't automatically got long. I waited and waited for the the extreme moves then at the first sign of reversal I got in near the bottom. Then I got out quickly. I realized for countertrend trades you gotta be quick. For trend trades you can sit and let it ride! That was my mistake before! I sat too long on countertrend trades hoping they will reversed. No! If it doesn't reverse right away I'm out! Also for countertrend trades I trade much much smaller than trend trades. So if I'm wrong it doesn't hurt me as much. And with trend trades I trade multiples of countertrend trades. So when the big breakout comes I can participate in it. This is the first time I'm doing this. Keep at it and my P&L will change for the better! I want to go to sleep but there are so many great moves to capture. Ack! Better go to sleep soon!
Well, maybe it was all meant to be, and could not have gone any other way. If you hadn't made those losses, you might never have discovered your edge in the market. Big losses are always a good reminder how bad things can really get. They serve a purpose - to make you hesitate whenever tempted to take big risks.
Thanks for the perspective! Perhaps all of those suffering was necessary for me to learn how to trade better or developed my edge as you've said. I just came back from an extended family vacation. My wife wanted to buy the internet package for the cruise. Initially, I balked at paying $9.99/day especially when we were supposed to be on a cruise afterall. But she said she likes to check work emails etc. So I bought it thinking I might trade a little on vacation. And trade I did! A few minutes here and there and maybe 10-30mins in the morning and at night. Long story short I ended up making close to $3K! Cool huh? Once you know how to trade , money just comes. It got to the point where I made several hundred dollars just going from my cabin to the dock on the island. Several hundred dollars from my room to the breakfast dining area. LOL. A few hundred dollars while watching shows on the ship. Now contrast this with 2015 when I was also on a family cruise and tried to trade and hold. I lost a lot. A lot. I was so clueless then. If I had the opportunity to trade a solid 1 hour each morning then I would have been up huge. But there's something call family vacation and excusrions etc. So I could only do a tidbit of trades here and there. The funny thing is had I held on to one of my trades til Friday I would have made multiples more. But since I'm more on an intraday trader I don't want to take that risk especially when I'm trading more size now. Then on Friday(last day of our trip) I got sloppy and I had a resting order while I was at breakfast. I placed the resting order way out of the range thinking it will not get hit. But once the jobless report came out, the order was filled and it just broke down and ran so much lower. I had that mistake before. I should have cancelled all orders when I'm not in front of my laptop paying 100% attention to it. Much regret. But since it's part of my longer term hold strategy I'm ok though a bit nervous and holding to it. Without that one mistake I would have been up close to $3K trading a few minutes here and there. I feel like I've made so much progress since 2015! But I need to cut out stupid careless mistakes. The difference this time was I started trading with size. Before I was trading 1 lots with little to show for. Now that I when I recognize my setup I put in anywhere from 3-10 futures lots. Even on a small move it makes nice coin. So my evolution is as follows: 1) countertrend and lose a lot 2) Hold onto losers 3) stop countertrending 4) trade with the trend on 1 lot 5) trade with the trend and countertrend on 1 lot 6) trade with the trend and countertrend on multiple lots but get out too soon instead of riding it all the way 7) Next step is I can trade with the trend and countertrend on multiple lots for the big ride. In one of my futures trades, I had been studying the chart and have a very good feel where it might go. I even told myself that this will be a runner and had a particular target in might but I still got scared and got out too soon because I was trading size. Once I can master holding for the big trends on decent number of lots then I can really say I finally moved up to the next level. kaizen. Constant and never ending improvements.
On a more somber note, after more analyses, I realized I can easily make money. What I really need to focus on is eliminating suboptimal trades/setups and cutting losses even faster. As those who have followed the thread, while I've made a lot of progress this year(2019), I'm still net down from 2015. Few ETers have encouraged me not to look at the past. See that as sunk cost. Thank you. I'm trying to focus on the future and let the past be gone. Eventually I'll make back all those losses and even more given the current trajectory. I know that in the depths of my being. But at times, I feel bad for all those bad trades that got me in this hole in the first place. Perhaps with current good trajectory I can recover all of it within a year or less at this rate. Hopefully by Dec 31, 2019 I can proudly say I've recovered everything if not a big chunk of it. Hopefully through failures, we can all learn to grow and become better than ever before. Must all greatness come from great suffering and pain? I'm no way near her level of success. One day I'll rise from the rubles of my ruins.
Strange. For some reason, I got up early and before my alarm. Maybe after a long trip, I finally got a good night's rest and sleep. I checked my phone and saw that it came back close to where I originally bought but not quite to my target price. I logged in and exited. Took a small loss. Such a scary ride. I rather take this small loss rather waited it out. This thing whipsawed like crazy. Whew! From now on, I will not have resting orders way way out of the range. Because if and when the order does get filled then it means does the trend has changed. At least in the short term. I'm not a position trader who can sit through weeks and months of this. haha.
welcome to scalping, ha ha you are a scalper not a trend rider. if you lose when trend is strong. unless some imminent news is going to be out, still it will get manipulated. RTH days hardly have any trends, mostly ranges. Intraday trading and trend riding i am not sure if its possible for prolonged periods. Trend riding is more for swing traders in MHO. Counter trading with good trade strategy and management is for day trading.