Mad Cow and Avian Flu

Discussion in 'Economics' started by ssternlight, Mar 13, 2006.

  1. Long tofu short MCD anyone? :D

    More seriously, a confluence of these two could really hit the food supply in the US.
     
  2. the bird flu is not a threat to anybody yet even in the countries of origin.....lightning killed more people than bird flu last year......most deaths are from those eating chickens after they are found dead......that is asking for it.......1 case of mad cow in US.........cow shipped in from canada........no deaths in history of country from mad cow disease.........are u playing an uninformed game? or just uninformed?
     
  3. Agree with second poster on Mad Cow. Latest science doesn't make this a huge threat.

    The food supply isnt the issue with Bird flu ... the average american could do with a year or so on reduced calories (like anyone eating the US see food diet).

    Bird flu will either come to nothing (won't make the jump or will make the jump but the new version will have an acceptable mortality level) ... OR ... lol, all speculation will be worth nought and I will be stocking food, water and keeping the family home for 6 weeks in the hope that someone can catch up with it by then.

    Cheers :)
     
  4. OMG the flu is coming.. the flu is coming.....!!!



    I can't imagine the horror of a fever, coughing, aching, stuffy head....... oh the torture of taking some Robitussin,Advil, Tylenol, Vics vapor rub and some home made chicken soup.....


    almost done with my concrete bunker..
     
  5. Perception is reality in the markets my friend. Keep that in mind.
     
  6. No sense of humor here today...

    Anyway, just to take a trip down memory lane. The British had to destroy their herds to stop Mad Cow and many country's in Asia are destroying hundreds of thousands of chickens. It's not a question of a leap from animal to human. It's a question of public health as to why you do this. And of course, for any idiot who doesn't understand the implications of that leap...

    More concretely related to trading, if you bothered to look you might notice that poultry stocks are way off from their highs -- both domestic and international. And if your memory would go back to the first case you might recall that cattle futures went limit down for quite a few days. Finally, if you are silly enough to believe that we have effective testing for Mad Cow at this time in the US then...
     
  7. LOL. You havent looked at the way this flu kills ... makes SARS look like cinderella. The way we used to deal with highly infectious diseases for which we had no cure was ... isolation.

    I'm optimistic that either it won't cross or it will cross as a weakened strain. I'm not optimistic that if it does cross as a strain with current mortality the transmission rate around the world will be slow. It will certainly sort out the argument about house price bubbles if its lethal and fast.
     
  8. Well for Me I like the contrarian view!!!

    I bought PDA a few days ago(Brazil poultry at 56)==It's 65 today

    I bought TSN today 12.63 (12.88 now looks like it bottomed)----It got crushed for like 6 month's

    I bought PPC today 21.45 (21.80 now)----Same as TSN just spent 6 months getting cheaper...

    I love the whole Bird Flu story it just put these long term holds on sale...

    Other Post @
    Forums--TradingForALiving--WantToShare
     
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  9. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    Obviously, long pork bellies. If chickens and cows are out of the table, all we have left is pigs... Fish already have too much mercury in them...
     
  10. PDA: Had a change in control last Monday and did a stock split. It also only trades 15K shares a day on average. I sincerely doubt bird flu had anything to do with this short term move and if you think so...

    That's not to say I completely disagree with your general thesis -- timeframe of holding etc play a big role. However, I do think we will see cases here in the US and I do think we haven't seen a bottom yet. Hey, what can I say, it takes more than one person to make a market.

    No positions in poultry -- I'm chicken. :)
     
    #10     Mar 14, 2006