Macro trading

Discussion in 'Journals' started by HolyMacro, Oct 27, 2019.

  1. This week the portfolio came in under the benchmark
    upload_2019-11-17_20-10-16.png

    Collapsing the detailed trades for 3+ weeks in the past to save screen space
    Corrected portfolio return for the week of 11/4. Should have been 0.4%
    None of my posts represent an investment advice, and are provided for entertainment purposes only

     
    #21     Nov 17, 2019
  2. I think most of the reasons I selected this trade are still at play, so I am keeping this position for another week, not liquidating today. This week stands to finish pretty flat, but I'll post the final results after today's close.
     
    #22     Nov 22, 2019
  3. upload_2019-11-25_9-3-51.png

    None of my posts represent an investment advice, and are provided for entertainment purposes only
     
    #23     Nov 25, 2019
    tommcginnis likes this.
  4. tommcginnis

    tommcginnis

    Really like your set-up.
    Two small suggestions --
    • conditional format your Portfolio cell such that, when it returns a negative of |absolute_value| greater than the market, background would be a light-light green, and likewise, if it returns a positive value that is below the benchmark, that it return a light-light-light red. [[Or maybe, just put the winner in bold?]] Lots of different ways to show it, I guess.

    • consider developing a Tweet Index which would track the number of twit-posts coming out of certain accounts, so as to place a barometer on exogenous market drivers. There is a correlation to be had, and one that might very well track with your Portfolio's relative performance. :wtf::D
     
    #24     Nov 25, 2019
    HolyMacro likes this.
  5. Hello Tom, thank you for your comments.

    Color coding is a good idea - I actually thought of a similar set of colors. However, using any shade of green when losing money, even if I beat the benchmark, didn't feel right :) I think I'll go yellow/red for the losing trades.

    Good call on the second recommendation :) Look up the Volfefe index lol
     
    #25     Nov 26, 2019
    tommcginnis likes this.
  6. Stayed invested in SSO over the weekend, and will close it out this morning, and rotate into:
    VGK (75%): expecting some level of convergence between Europe and US
    USO (25%): expecting the last week's losses to reverse, based on solid demand
     
    #26     Dec 2, 2019
  7. Did't get around posting last week's results, here they are. Changing the format a bit - going forward I'll just include 1 week, but will include the benchmark and portfolio returns since I started this.

    upload_2019-12-5_22-26-51.png
     
    #27     Dec 5, 2019
  8. Terminating the USO and VGK positions now. I'll post my next week's trades over the weekend.

    None of my posts represent an investment advice, and are provided for entertainment purposes only
     
    #28     Dec 6, 2019
  9. Last week's performance:
    upload_2019-12-8_9-9-53.png

    Next week will be rich with data releases and central bank meetings. Expecting EM CBs to ease and FOMC to hold steady, my next week’s trades will be Russia, Brazil and Turkey, entering shortly after the market opens on Monday, with the following allocations:

    ERUS 40%
    EWZ 35%
    TUR 25%

    None of my posts represent an investment advice, and are provided for entertainment purposes only
     
    #29     Dec 8, 2019
  10. The view for the week that the rest of the world will benefit more than the US from the trade worries abating. Before 4pm today, I will be liquidating ERUS, EWZ and TUR, and rotating into China, Europe and Japan (FXI, VGK and EWJ) at allocations of 15%, 40% and 45%.
    I’ll post this week’s results over the weekend.
     
    #30     Dec 13, 2019