sle has his feet up so I'll take the initiative to start a macro thread. I mention pro as there may be OTC stuff mentioned. Let's make this happen.
I came into March with a macro (political) premise that the EU would offer an extension (they did) and EU back channel pressure for a new referendum (redux). I was long GBP via cable and shares; risk on in UK. I have some friends in Sweden that work for banks and they made a compelling case. I had intended on going flat US-risk on all accounts when Mueller was imminent. My trigger had been Andrew Weissman wearing the infamous tan suit sans tie. Maddow stated (rumor) that Weissman was going to take a gig at NYU Law and was seen outside NYU. I went flat last Monday and Tuesday save for TSLA which refused to rally. I was short 29K from 292 DCA and began to trade into the synthetic short straddle and wing it into flies and condors. My hypothesis was that I had at least two weeks on Mueller from the Weissman tan suit sighting. I wanted to be flat well in advance, but TSLA would simply not go up and I got piggish. Covered TSLA on Friday. Still short Chegg as it's literally in the worst fundamental position of any company I've ever seen. Came into the last hour flat risk and had a decision to make; get short some vol or let it ride another weekend. Piled into an SPX long diag from a credit (bull spread) and got it done three minutes before the close. Literally come back to my desk to check on the fill quantity and saw the Mueller headline.
Sorry, I was short TSLA in shares and short the 60 vol-line. I went short on the denial of that opening 3/14/2019 opening gap bar.
@destriero - thanks! I was being lazy indeed. So what do we think of the inverted yield curve? My sense is that combined with the lousy numbers coming out of Europe as well as locally there are reasons to think that it might be a proper sign. The real question is - short now or wait for the summer/fall?
I was predicting an inverted curve for Q2 2019 back in the second week of October, but also a sub-1% GDP for Q2. I still think it's possible provided the BEA doesn't manipulate. I Don't think Powell will cut until it's too late. I was waiting for the Mueller Report to hit before really leaning on this market. I think spooz hit 2400 in 2019, minimum target. I can't bring myself to trade the inverted curve or FFunds.
Well, based on the summary the Mueller Report is bullish, no? Or is that the buy the rumor, sell the news type of reasoning? Well, we are pricing a cut in December at the moment - I'd say the interesting trade is to short FF futures that are pricing 5-10% probability of the cut in the next few months and go long something in the back where the probability is higher but not 100% yet as a hedge. I.e. play the pause and hedge with a proper cut.
Yeah, complete surprise that it was interpreted negatively. Reinforces my bias that we see 2,400 at a minimum this year. Those are good odds. I'll take a look tomorrow.
Hmm. My intuition is that it's very binary - either a hard Brexit or a second referendum and no Brexit at all.
Yeah, for sure. Just acting on rumor and the likelihood of an extension. I've been out of the trade for over a week.