Builder (hope you are not a Homebuilder -- many of my Homebuilder Clients have bitten the dust this year)... Oh yes.. you can count on an unpredictable swing every day... the run from 122 to 130's was surreal and happened in my absence as usual... The change in character from noon on was surprising to say the least.. no dips.. not one... Wondering if today's high was "it" for this swing.. MACD says nope but these things respect nothing... They do both have very clear trendlines... I did pick up a small serving in AH low 124's...
If today doesn't highlight why I detest daytrading nothing will... I ended up with 12 trades and made $47.22.. Yes I bought TMW at 124.5 yesterday... look at it's intraday chart.. A thing of beauty now but a thing of torture while it was constructed before my eyes. The 10 minute period after I take a trade is my worst and results in seemingly uncontrollable overtrading. IF I had 3 trades max each day that were kept for a couple of hours I would do very well... VERY disturbing... Must find a way to place morning trade, stop(s), and leave PC.. AND quit watching the machinations of the DOW. This journal losing it's usefulness as it has done nothing to instill self control... my fantasy of it's power is wishful thinking..
Regardless of what I think of this market as not swingable.. yes it is.. A chart of RYL, DRYS, JRCC, POT, or even the crazy ETFs, SKF, TWM, SRS show they have been traveling in one direction since election day.... Problem is I take a single day DOW/stock swing against current trend to mean the end of the trend... For me, the idea of doing better getting those seemingly low risk, juicy intraday moves and doing better that holding for a few days is questionable... Need to really think hard on which to be to find peace... which probably will lead to profits again.
I was not my intent to be a day trader when I started recently. The concept of swing trading seemed to best match my interests and the time available to me. That's what drew me to your journal. After seeing huge gaps at the open I became reluctant to hold positions overnight and started making day trades, concentrating on the ETF's. That hasn't worked out too well, either...getting whipsawed and chasing leveraged ETF's up and down the market isn't a winning strategy. I've gotten ahead of the market a couple of times but I suspect it was a truly random event.
Brad, Hope I haven't led you astray but I think it takes a complete trader to swing trade AND day-trade well.. Those who can't do both need to figure that out asap and stick to whichever you do well.. Deep in my heart I still believe swing trading 3 days to a few weeks is the best balance of profit and sanity, and time invested... Regardless you need: The discipline to WAIT for low risk entries. Trade in the direction of the trend - at the very least a 3 day moving average in your favor.. (A friend trader today spent all day getting into UWM, against my better judgment I did the same.. YO! THE DAILY BAR IS RED AND HUGE!!) The discipline to trade the right amount and put in a stop loss. The discipline to be patient while the position works for you.... this one is my Achilles heel... hope it doesn't haunt me to my grave. At the end of the day you really have to believe it IS possible to get to the traders promised land... If not you won't last as you will be tested indefinitely.
Sold TWM 153+, bought TWM 14.58.. Based on Hourly TWM "could" decline to 140's support and still will be within uptrend.. TWM should be around 15.6 should that happen.. so I'll be selling there.. MACD favors TWM so good to stand by the door on UWM.
yeah i picked it up AH on Tuesday too... figuring the sell off that daywas overdone. then a couple hours later - still AH -i took profit, and i kicked myself all day on wednesday and still today. cant believe how much that thing can swing. i was worried about it crashing as hard as it did last time it got into high 140s when DOW just touched under 8000. looks like both the DOW and TWM are flirting with those line. i traded once today in and out of TWM, but i'm scared to hold that thing or any leveraged ETF for too long. And I'm not a homebuilder (thankfully), but in the industry and doing alright. what do you do Retire? goodluck all.
I have been in architecture (residential) for 20 years... So I am currently forcibly "retired" and in dire need of a bailout! I do feel bit better today having gotten something from TWM.. yes, they are MAD. Take a look at SRS... Have decided to scratch the UWM trade at 14.6.. This listless action not for me as I intend to not give back the profit needelssly. Flat for now.
Like watching a glacier flow... sloooowly down... The big lesson this year is being a great trader A LOT more important than a great Chart analyst.. A great Chartist I am no doubt, an average trader, not yet. Each day this week any morning positions that were held 90 minutes longer would have been wirth 3 to 5k EACH day... Even bought TWM low 12's on Friday... The pattern is taking profits waaay to soon then messily trying to get back in and making a mess of things... As always actually happy about the progress.. mentally.,.. the 156th time making the same error should do it... almost there..