MACD/Trendline Swing Trader

Builder... yes TWM and UWM trade a bit better as they are less focused... Other short ETF's always drop harder (more than 2x) that the overall market, which means, barring reverse splits they hypothetically end up at 0 over time.

 

Usually go back to assess the week and THE clear problem here is.. LOSSES... I consistently have more winning trades than losing trades but the losing trades are eating the winning trades alive. I must find ways to control the downside automatically to prevent my mental opinion from allowing losses trades. Even though the TWM trade is likely to do well at some point, I may not be around long enough to enjoy it. Anything is possible.

THE catch is to do this without jeopardizing the winning trades... Trade selection AND obsessive stop use are key.. Key analysis is to figure out by what extreme percentage do winning trades go bad before they go into profit.

So the solution to the problems of the last 6 months or so is poor loss control. For the coming week will pledge to box every trade with a stop based on volatility.

 

Also have to try to get into swing trades in small daily bars as these are much easier to protect.

 

SP500... Erratic behaviour lately makes any charting very salty... Upper declining trendline probably useless but who knows.. MACD, Friday's close, and daily stochastic indicate Monday strength.. bad for TWM... A lot of resistance above... 940, 960, and 980 (the strongest)... On the other hand the little wedge has a change to survive but there must be immediate weakness Monday or sideways movement within.. IF this happens and Friday/Thursday lows are taken out things will be VERY ugly... Wishful thinking though.... Me thinks barring bad news (we did have A TON Friday that was ignored), There will be green Monday morning.. If it persists I'll raise white flag and lick my TWM wounds.

 

Out of TWM 104.5... made the best of a bad situation..

 

Long UWM 23 even stop 22.6

 

Stopped out... These markets are a mess.

 

You question the odd strength Friday in the face of so much bad news, suffer so much loss... then today TWM on verge of returning to what was an awful buy at 111... talk about being jerked around..

A couple of failed trades.. JRCC from 13.2 to 12.8, EGN from 30.2 to 29.9.

 

So weary.... long TWM 110.9, Short RYL 16.13. Repeat to self... "sell bailouts and stimulus packages".. their effects on markets rapidly diminishing..

 

Short POT 78.4