Well market strategy was fine BUT stocks didn't behave... As expected UAUA stop out.. So MEE should work? Nope... Stopped out .. they are diluting. GNK stop out also as it has chosen to follow markets this time. Solars not following Oil as hoped.. Still long SOL, FSLR. Even CLF trading against oil this morning. Stopped out. Really thinking of trading 2 to 4 ETFs and leaving stocks for good... Short PFG 46.05
I watched the market and had you in my thoughts. Least PFG went okay. I actually have a small short on FSLR right now. I think with tax credits expiring for green/solar whatever they should gradually drop, just as other solar stocks have recently. Even more so with oil down. it's been playing too many tops at 290.
At day's end I kept only PFG short and SKF. FSLR long over 271 or short a close under 260. The S&P wedge is building almost too perfectly and narrowing very quickly so either it breaks the bottom from here or breaks the 1292 next run-up.
Out of SKF 120.5 Out of PFG scratch Short MEE 59.75 Long UAUA, CAL 1/2 Premarket, added at new highs. DRYS trigger short 64.8 loss 67... 3rd very expensive trigger this week... need so seriously scratch my head over the weekend. Sometimes I question the value of taking stocks home lately.. as it seems almost ALWAYS you can continue the trade the next day at same price or better.. No gaps anymore.. S&P.. Lower line bought like mad... Oil being sacrificed at the Wall Street Altar... 110 anyone?
110 seems very logical-just check the longterm trendline...that was the target I wrote down a few weeks ago. I have been in the trend for a little while so I can withstand a reasonable correction-I don't think I would short oil or get long airlines at this point unless it was very short term (intraday). Are you trading heavier lately? I just want to throw out the idea of trading smaller and smaller until you get your groove back.
Rashid, Also, out of curiosity do you every go back over your trades back when things were going really well? Seeing how many trades you took per day (more selective maybe?) I keep a trading log and it helps to go back through and review my thoughts from the strong performance periods.
By and large the "problem" with my trading lately is I have gone off course a bit by not focusing purely on getting in trend changes early and staying with which could be attributed to the usually whippy Summer/earnings trading period.. So one could take a vacation in these times or become a daytrader (a poor one), which is where I have gone. This whippy summer period also likely responsible for the failed triggers this week.. Yes I am higher in size this week and would have had a decent week without the Trigger issues. Attached is the thinking behind the Airline trades but you are right Oil could bounce anywhere from here to 110. Can't blame market conditions for anything though, I am simply overtrading. Next week I will activate triggers 20 minutes or so into trading to avoid the open.
I don't go back and check but I have a very good memory of trades and the key difference between the better weeks this year and now is I never did completely switch my thinking regarding commodities.. Remained very nervous shorting them while still occasionally taking them long.. That July 2nd massive dip was the type stocks rarely recover from and usually spells the start of a downtrend.