This chart I found at Leavitt Brothers (not a subscriber, no affiliation) is so clear it brings a tear to my eye... Now it doesn't mean short and throw away the key.. To me it means I will take good short opps, especially around 1420, and get very aggressive short should there be weakness early May, which has a reputation. <a href="http://s26.photobucket.com/albums/c146/retire45/2008%20Journal/?action=view¤t=SP50001.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="http://i26.photobucket.com/albums/c146/retire45/2008%20Journal/SP50001.jpg" border="0" alt="Photobucket"></a>
I keep dodging bullets.. SLW (9 red candles in a row.. yep), RES, now CLR (bought Friday sold Yesterday.. made pennies)... HMY gapped past stop.. luckily, trimmed it in half yesterday as other PM's got killed, it was soon to follow.. Fact is commodities have had their run and this is not the time to be long there.. So shorted a bit today as it seems tomorrow to signal a "concern' on inflation.. Short. CLF, FGD, FTO, TIE.. Still Long RYL (has swung 2 points 32 to 34 6 times in a week), LEN, BZH.
Hmmmm.. Well those Builders were quite weak leading into Ben-Day, as if they are realizing not the right medication.. if there is one.... Stopped out FDG.. 60.56 Added to TIE Short.. 15.5 Added to CLF Short 162.5 Sold BZH.. 11.44 Reversed Long to Short RYL.. 32.55 LEN.. 19.3 Builder Index has been building wedge last few weeks.. threatening to break... Rashid
Stopped out LEN and RYL... Tried again and got stopped out again. Could go long but only BZH looks good for that.. trigger set. Current behavior in most Homebuilders not for Swing trading.. Hope for a genuine trend soon.. Nothing they've done lately is genuine.. Short FSLR 266.. CLF nice.. target 140-ish
Triggered Short into CLR just under 40.. don't like it... May tuck my tail between me legs and buy RYL if it closes well over 34.5 - what happened this morning is near criminal... chart attached. .. AND XHB can manage 23.5
Talk about not seeing the Forest for the Trees.. RYL is actually not doing anything wrong.. my opinion of it's industry began to cloud my judgement.. causing me to trade in the "hell" zone.. This shows the neat pattern it's been building and potential journey once (if?) embarked.. 38 to 41?? Better believe it if it happens.. MACD resting nicely.. This shows more than ever.. TRADE THE CHARTS!! Also stresses the ABSOLUTE inefficiency of markets i.e. the varied P.E. that can be given any industry at anytime whether anyone likes it or not... Those sorry Financials taking off as I type.. a picture(chart) worth a thousand words (dollars?<g>)
I dont think building a position in a triangle is necessarily a bad thing. Sometimes I do it if I am extremely bullish/bearing on a stock. Then I pyramid it if it breaking in my direction. I think you just have to be very very conservative on the triangle entries.