I am new to the world of trading and new to this forum too. I have been studying up on trend trading, because it seems like a good way to get solid returns when timed correctly. My current plan is to trade the intermediate trends, holding positions days to weeks (maybe months if they just keep going). I have settled on the weekly MACD indicator as the trend follower that seems to provide a good balance of sensitivity and smoothing. I also plan to follow Elder's recommendation to short in down trends, with the best time to buy being after a bouce up (vice versa for up trends). That said, as I watch this market today, I find myself in a situtaion when I am not sure I can determine the trend. The trend for months has obviously been down for most stocks, Yesterday there was bounce in XLF, so I took a short position under the close and was stopped in today in the volitilty up and down. So far so good, but after today's run up, the weekly MACD has started to trend back up, and the daily MACD just crossed into positive territory. Is the trend up or down?? I personally think the bad news is nowhere near over with respect to housing and the financial sector, so it sure feels like a two day run up isn't enough to end this down trend. But if I am supposed to mechanically trade according to my indicator, suddenly it says "buy". Can anyone help a newbie and offer some thoughts and how you consider situations like this? Thanks for your help!