macd indictor lags, is there software that doesnt

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by qwert, Aug 19, 2008.

  1. ptolemy


    First you have to agree on a definition for just what Technical Analysis is. I do agree that it is not the art of interpreting indicators. In my humble opinion I believe that true Technical Analysis comes from being able to understand what you are seeing in the chart.

    I have seen charts that have moved {short term} on bad fundimentals. However I was able to determine that the move was warranted just by looking at the volume and price action. Accumulation can be seen in the charts and those that are accumulating know way more about this stock than most.

    You make the comments that long term studies show that TA does not work, well I am here to tell you sir that I am a long term study and my portfolio is the results of that study. TA is the only thing that works. Indicators are usefull tools to scan a large group of stocks for given criteria and that is where their usefullness ends. Reading the charts and knowing what you are looking at is the only way to succeed in the Markets.

    Charly, do not fall into his trap. Their is no such thing as a non lagging moving average, I have read articles on this subject and the results are always the same. "A moving average that leads price is based on if/or logic and is pure speculation" think about it, how can you put the carage before the horse? You see, you cannot.
    #61     Aug 21, 2008

  2. I'm a newbie, but as far as I'm concerned technical analysis is the study of reoccurring human behavior. A lot of people don't subscribe to TA because they believe prices move randomly, however TA people understand that prices move because of supply and demand. Supply and demand are created by people and their belief that they can never have enough money and the fact that they can't stand to lose any. Those 2 attributes of human behavior are always present, and thus supply and demand, and thus price action are interpretable and can be predicted.
    #62     Aug 21, 2008
  3. Price moves are never truly random, because there is always a reason for why price moved the way it did. The problem is it may appear random due to the fact that you saw a situation in which there were too many possibilities for price to do that it SEEMED random. The key is whittling it down to the times where there are very few things that price can do in a given moment and get ready to pounce. In index futures this may only be a handlful of times a day but thats why we wait.

    #63     Aug 21, 2008
  4. I'm going to quote you in the latest price action journal, if you don't mind.
    #64     Aug 21, 2008
  5. ok, sure


    #65     Aug 21, 2008
  6. On this point, I have to agree. If you look at the original PA Journal, you'll see many traders are using tried and true S/R and well known chart patterns. This is TA.
    #66     Aug 21, 2008
  7. Agreed. In reality, price doesn't know nor care if a bar closed or opened at a certain price; all that matters is the price just traded at X and the rest is a method or system for traders to pick entries and exits. If this helps traders "see" a setup that has a high probability of long term success, good for them, but remember the market doesn't care about bars per se.
    #67     Aug 21, 2008
  8. drjmpc


    Very good post, jonbig04. I for one believe they behavioral information that can be derived from market activity, both long-term and intraday is why so many professors & scholars get into the markets in the first place.

    I must say that alot of the debate that cause the banter on the thread is simply because of the time frame different participants are looking at as the optimal time frame. My opinion is that Position Trading & Swing trading are all that should be discussed, given the all the details are presented why? Well with position trading, you're almost a long play investor who has enough "nads" [sorry ladies] to recognize that we need to locate optimal/near optimal entry & exit points in order to maximize profits, Minimize losses, and rotate into sectors as appropriate...

    On the flip side, Swing trading helps you to build the skills to necessary to know that when you may be " 'chruning' you own account" unnecessarily on an intraday opportunity. Obviously this doesn't really hold water with a stat arb or straight scalping strategy, but it will benefit most traders. Truth be told, you may have an opportunity to make even more money on a pending downturn or pullback by shorting rather than closing you position... But how will you know if there's a legit opportunity present or if you are becoming greedy if you can't identify a trend?

    So again, you have to know and understand your strategy, and stay disciplined to it and you're time frames in order to be successful. I mean you don't master freethrow shooting by doind dribbling drills, now do you?

    my job is the mastery. I am so far away on that; but then in that [the practice that is] lies the rub! Doing the work.....

    my $0.02
    #68     Aug 21, 2008

  9. Aye, the work is hard. Or, difficult I should say. I see candles when I close my eyes at night. Hmm

    ..note I did say candles, not indicators :)
    #69     Aug 21, 2008
  10. I think it's such a great post because I was saying something similar over here:

    Making Money of of Randomness

    It's nice when something clicks for me and I see it clicking for other traders ... :)
    #70     Aug 21, 2008