Thanks again NoDoji & eveyone else for the comments. I'm always wondering where you entered & exited during the day, so I really appreciate it. I know it's not the keys to the kingdom or anything, but it's just helpful for my brain to see how it's done by somebody successful. I could not hand my plan to somebody else & expect them to make money with it. Not a chance. I have a specific framework I follow of what to concentrate on in order to make my decisions. I look at the same thing as you or anyone else. Just a clean chart except for the EMA's. You can see swing highs/lows, price direction, support/resistance, etc. I have it all written down & occasionally rewrite it to refresh my brain. It's not that difficult to see where a trade should be entered & in what direction. It's a little more difficult to pick an appropriate target & stop, but still not that difficult. It's a mystery to me why it's so difficult for me & most other people. It's really strange to me how easy it is to lose money. I lost significantly more than the daily range Friday. I doubt if anyone on this site or anyone in the world could make that much with 1 contract, but it wasn't difficult at all to lose that much. Very strange. My problem is I enter trades for no legitimate reason. I concoct one in my head. I can turn on the chart at any time of the day & instantly create a reason to go long or short. Instantly !!! My brain just does some of it's brilliant thinking & concocts a reason, & off I go (even though it does not fit the framework I have at all). For instance my first trade was an obvious short. Swing Highs/Lows told me down. Price below strongly downsloping 20 EMA on 1-min chart. Trend down. Previous day's low = a good magnet. So what do I do..........I concoct in my head that it looks so obvious that it's a trap. I go long with a target where I figure all the dummies will get stopped out. Unfortunately I was the dummy. I do this often. I make horrible decisions that do not follow the framework I'm supposed to follow. It's a loss of mental control. I over-think.
On my 2nd trade I caught a low with my long. It was a climax bar at support. I'm allowed to take that trade. Now I knew in my head I should just go for a scalp since price direction was still strongly down overall. It was up 14 ticks at one point. I saw it stall. I thought to myself that it was just about to turn down again............looked pretty clear to me on the 15-second chart. Yet I held on. Just "hoping" it would go up some more. Another mental mistake.
On my 3rd trade I could clearly see 3 pushes down on the 1-minute chart. Obvious climactic action at yesterday's low. This is a great long setup which may turn out to be the low-of-the-day. But I concoct a scenario in my head that it hasn't dropped below yesterday's low very much, and it'll probably go at least 10 ticks lower because it often does to shake out those who bought LOD. So instead of long I go short. Another mental mistake. Another bad decision.
Just as an exercise, open a spreadsheet and label several columns to represent fixed stop/target combos: 10/10 15/15 20/20 10/15 10/20 15/20 I'm suggesting these small targets because you're trading off a 1-min chart with a 15-second chart for reference (NoD makes sign of the cross just thinking about that). Next apply your trading plan to 10 days of price action and log the result of each trade for each combo. Let us know the results
Yes, I've read the Volman book. It all made sense, but I have never been convinced enough in my head to strictly follow setups the way he does. The last time I checked there was a group of traders on T2W who were trying his method & they weren't doing very good, but nobody ever does when they try to strictly follow somebody else's method. I know that doesn't make it a bad method. As far as the results for this experiment: Over 10 days all scenarios lost money. 10/10: -290 10/15: -195 10/20: -230 15/15: -165 15/20: -165 20/20: -25 I had no idea my entries were so incredibly bad. What I would prefer is to trade in the way you & Volman describe. See a setup, enter the trade, follow the rules like a robot. But it seems whenever I have tried this it's 2 stop-outs for every win. Incredibly frustrating. Some of the great looking setups work; some of them are traps. Seems about 50/50. So then I say screw that. Trading must be more of an art. So then I try to read the price action & have a framework to help me read it, but I don't have any specific setups or specific entry rules. I'm obviously not incredibly skilled at doing this, so it doesn't work either. I used to play blackjack & had all of the rules memorized. I could play hand after hand after hand for hours & never ever break a rule. So I don't have a problem with that. I actually enjoyed it. I would like to trade in that manner, if it's possible. I just keep going back & forth because I have never had anything that worked. Really I guess I have no idea what I'm doing.
You actually do, in fact you starting to notice the problem, lack of edge. You even got the discipline to execute one if you had it, but you just missing it. The right attitude, just lack the setup(s).
At first I thought the problem might be that you "usually start about 45 minutes after the open" and that your trading is interrupted by work. I assumed you had some sort of plan that you developed as a result of testing ideas and finding positive expectancy, and that's why I suggested that you apply your plan to 10 days of action. The results you posted from applying your plan with the various stop/target ideas I proposed reveals a negative expectancy such that you might consider simply reversing the plan and using the 10-tick stop and target. I can't help but wonder what convinced you to trade this way. I read Volman's book after I'd already been trading my plan and I found that it described much of what I was already doing with using the 1-min chart for precision entries based on the overall trending or ranging action, so I can confirm that his setups "work" with CL's 1-min chart. Being convinced in your head to follow them comes from applying them to many days' worth of pit session price action, tallying the stats, and seeing that there's positive expectancy. You also need to learn to recognize them in real time and act without hesitation (without thinking) when they appear. The two posts above are the biggest problem. You really don't have a positive expectancy plan and the stop/target exercise revealed that. I don't see how your trading results will change much without a plan that was tested during the time window you have available to trade and proved itself viable. Even then you'll have to overcome the most difficult part of trading, which is trading the plan without trying to second guess it. FWIW, my trading plan is "safe" to apply to CL during any time window of the pit session, even during chop/range. I was able to hone it that degree by conducting bar-by-bar spreadsheet analyses every day for nearly two years. To anyone reading this who wants to be a consistently profitable day trader: It's a LOT of work, possibly more work than you've ever done before, and once the work is done and you're holding the Grail in your hand, the faith required to execute day after day is impossible for the majority.
Trading is one of the very fewâ¦, if not onlyâ¦, businesses where there are no rulesâ¦, except for what each trader creates..., and then follows About the only ready made rule; bring enough capital How easy trading if only required to memorize a set of ready made rules These are my rules⦠Without my rules..., I am useless (& clueless) I donât follow my rules to the letter.., my rules are useless Something to ponder RN
So I'm still not sure how to proceed if my goal was to trade similar to the NoDoji style or Volman style. "I need to make a plan" sounds simple enough, but what is the process to create that plan? Do you just determine 1 setup at a time & then test the heck out of it & add filters to it & determine the most profitable stop/target combination? For instance on a 1-minute chart I just started looking at a with-trend, continuation trade setup. Price has to be in the process of higher-highs & higher-lows. After a higher-high I wait for a retracement to some kind of possible support. Then I wait until price moves back in the desired direction. I then choose to enter on a stop at the swing high, just prior to the high, or wait for the swing high to be touched & then place a limit order a few ticks lower. I've been testing this setup using the same process as earlier. It's much better than my basically random entries I tested earlier. Is the type of process I should be going thru? I realize this may come across as a simple rookie question, but I've tried so many things & lost so many times & read so much & heard so much that I have gotten my brain tied up in knots.