1st LONG I call this the fake right shoulder trade. When H&S has little right shoulder but then runs the other way & makes a higher shoulder. 1s shoulder is a fake. Missed target by 1 tick, then seconds after exit target hit (and more). 2 Ticks 2nd LONG Long on 2nd climax bar. Exit way way too early. Find it difficult to hold on. 10 Ticks 3rd LONG Long retracement in strong price move. In too early on this one. -15 Ticks 4th LONG Try retracement again. Also 3 pushes down 15-sec chart. Worth a very easy additional 20 ticks, but I was out early. 22 Ticks 5th SHORT Retracement in downtrend. Possible bull flag forming. 10 Ticks 6th LONG Tried to buy low in what was an overall uptrending day, even though immediate trend down. 1st close below 200 EMA 15-sec chart in 2 hours. -11 Ticks 7th LONG 1st close below 100 EMA 1-min chart. Had a nice gain which evaporated. Price got stuck at resistance are 94.18 for 2nd time. 5 Ticks 8th LONG TL break & HL. No swing high made though. -6 Ticks 9th LONG 1st close below 200 EMA in 2 hours. Nobody cared about that but me. This is a good trade to take, but not when there is such a base that formed above it. Sort of an upside down cup & handle formation. -15 Ticks 10th LONG Climactic action at support. 23 Ticks SIM TRADING TOTAL 25 Ticks (minus commissions) 6 Winners 4 Losers NOTES Sooner or later I'm going to hold on for a major swing, a big move, which is the goal. Lately I get out early on the good ones. When I'm determned to stay in for a larger move those are the ones that move against me. Need to reverse that. Got pretty frustrated today, but I tried to keep it together & make good decisions. They didn't turn out to be the "best" decisions or even "great" decisions looking back in hindsight, but still I kept the mental part together pretty well today. Definitely need to work on getting those big swings though. I get used to choppy price action & feel lucky to get my little targets. It feels like it takes an eternity just to get those little targets. Hard to believe at the time that price is going another 50 ticks. The 4th long would have been my big one if I'd held on. After I entered it went in my favor immeidately. Felt good. Then the gain evapaported & it went into the red. Felt bad. Then nothing for the next minute. Then nothing again. Then little move up. Then nothing. Then nothing. Now I just feel really uncomfortable imagining price is going to reverse & take me back into the red any second. Finally, after what felt like an eternity ( 8 minutes ), my target is hit. I feel total relief. Looking back now, I can see that I missed an extremely easy additional 20 ticks and another 75 ticks if I'd just kept moving my stop below the swing lows until one was violated. Still a lot of work to do.
1st LONG HL in trading range after TL broken. Anticipate BO after multiple tries. Failed to breakout. Stopped. Should have exited earlier. -10 Ticks 2nd LONG Buy low in trading range. Overall price direction is up. -8 Ticks 3rd LONG Broke down out of range, but rejected the new low & back into the range. Target a BO of the other side of range. -11 Ticks 4th LONG DB & TL Break -15 Ticks 5th LONG Climax bar at 60-min support 12 Ticks 6th LONG Retrace on 1-min chart -8 Ticks 7th Long DB on 1-min chart. Exited after a while because I found myself confused 7 Ticks 8th LONG In a tight channel sloping upward. Looks like pressure is buildling for at least a climax bar up. -11 Ticks 9th SHORT Retracement short in downtrend. Reversed instantly. Had a bad feeling. -5 Ticks 10th LONG Reversed instantly. -4 Ticks 11th LONG DB 1-min chart, 1-2-3 reversal 13 Ticks 12th LONG Trying to buy low at swing low, possible support area after 3 pushes down. -8 Ticks SIM TRADING TOTAL -48 Ticks (minus commissions) 3 Winners 9 Losers NOTES Disaster. Grade: F Even had a mental breakdown on the last tradeâ¦....cancelled my stop order. If I could just get rid of these disaster days & at least get them to breakeven I'd be doing ok.
It "should" have been more like this if I had managed things better. I don't understand why I fall apart every so often. Profitable trading is pretty much impossible if I continue to have these "disaster" days. 1st LONG Anticipated BO, not terrible, just a losing trade. -10 Ticks 2nd LONG Try to buy low in trading range. Should have put limit around 94.01 if that was the goal. Price was weak & could not even get to top of range, so I should have exited at least breakeven. 0 Ticks 3rd LONG Needed a target within the chop. Should have exited breakeven at worst. 0 Ticks 4th LONG Terrible entry. A DB was made, but never a HH. No reason to go long here. If I wanted to go long then my exit would have been a better place, in what became a triple bottom. 0 Ticks 5th LONG Risky entry, but at least it was at a support area. I should have stayed in for a larger move, esp after a triple bottom and a TL break & a HH. 21 Ticks 6th LONG Should have still been in trade #5 0 Ticks 7th Long Should have still been in trade #5 0 Ticks 8th LONG Should have still been in trade #5 0 Ticks 9th SHORT Ok entry, but turned out to be a loser. -5 Ticks 10th LONG Not a good entry. Very choppy. -4 Ticks 11th LONG 1-2-3 reversal. Good entry. 15 Ticks 12th LONG Ok entry. Should have been breakeven at worst. 0 Ticks SIM TRADING TOTAL (How it "should" have been) 17 Ticks (minus commissions) 2 Winners 3 Losers 4 Breakeven NOTES Should have been a plus 17 day or at the worst a breakeven day, not a minus 48 day.
Thank you for sharing your journal. It is very rare to see clear examples of how others trade, together with reasoning, and a large sample size. To help those following along, could you please number your trades on the chart to correspond with your numbered descriptions? For example, Friday's trading appears to show a new short not long after the open? Where was this closed? Or was this closing an existing long position? Or does it indicate a fill before the "start time" of the chart you have posted? (the pink fill appearing around time 06.02) Or is it a glitch? If you are starting your trading from the yellow box, first long before 07.00, then the chart appears to match up with your descriptions. Also it would be helpful if you could describe periods where you did not trade. For example you appeared not to trade the first hour of the regular session Friday - we do not know whether you were away from screens, whether your method did not signal any trades, or whether there is another reason unless you tell us. It would be helpful if you could highlight periods where you did not trade because of confusion or an unclear view on direction, or any other factors which make you reluctant to open a position. We would also appreciate if you would continue to consistently refer to the chart intervals you use, for example when you take a trade based on 60 minute support or when you are using the 15 second chart. And also when volume / trendlines / MAs feature in your analysis. Thanks in advance, and I hope your interesting journal continues.
Thanks for the suggestions. I started my trading from the yellow box. The other arrows are from the previous day. I don't get up early enough to trade the open (unless I'm trading real money). I usually start about 45 minutes after the open. As I improve ( positive thinking )....................I'll start getting up for the open (6am where I live), and then eventually move onto real money again. But for now I don't feel getting up for the open would have any great benefit other than making me really tired since I have a job. I miss huge chunks of the day due to my job. I do trade from work if I have time, but I realize without a doubt that it's a bad idea due to 1: my boss probably wouldn't like it, and 2: trading requires concentration & focus. But I'm trying to learn, so I do what I feel I have to do. I've been trying to do this for an embarrassingly long time now. I feel like I was brainwashed with a lot of bad information, so I'm trying again. I sort of wish I would have never read a book or listened to anybody & just figured things out for myself. But the past is the past. I can't just remove it from my brain, but I don't have to repeat the same stupid mistakes either. âNo one saves us but ourselves. No one can and no one may. We ourselves must walk the path.â ― Gautama Buddha, Sayings Of Buddha
Mac, Great journal, full of honesty, ups and down, wishing you the best and will follow your progress.
1st: LONG (0) Retracement after HH on 1-min chart. Turned into a triangle. Broke downside, but saw 60-min support, so stayed in. Pretty lousy entry. Almost stopped out. Stop originally 10 ticks, but increased to 20 ticks (my max) below 60-min support line. Later after moving stop tighter I set a big target, & my stop went to auto-breakeven when up 20 ticks. I had to go to a meeting. Was up 47 ticks at one point, but it came all the way back to BE. 2nd: LONG (-14) Long at 2nd 60-min support level. Paid the price for anticipating it would hold instead of waiting for some type of confirmation that it actually was holding. Correct move would have been to short, but it seems like that would have been mentally difficult to do at that time, but need to figure out how to get in on those moves. 3rd: SHORT (21) Retracement in strong downtrend 1-min chart. Just jumped in on the 1st green bar, but I should have waited for bar close to enter. 4th: LONG (9) 3 pushes down 1-min chart. Climactic action. Price stalled before hitting target, so I exited. 5th: LONG (10) After such a steep move I was expecting chop, so went long when bar broke swing low on 1-min chart. I figured that would trap some shorts & would be a value area to go long. There was no reason to exit prior to target being hit. That was a mistake. 6th: LONG (11) Retracement on 1-min chart after price had turned up from bottom of channel. Target not hit prior to pit close, so I exited. SIM TRADING TOTAL 37 Ticks (minus commissions) 4 Winners 1 Loser 1 Breakeven NOTES Trying to mix trading with my job was a real hassle today. I can only bring up my trading screen when nobody is watching & that wasn't going so well today. I realize trading at work is stupid, but so be it. The alternative is to sit in my cube & whine about how I can't trade because I have a job & just forget about it. Can't do that. So I trade when I can. I enter a bracket order so I have a stop & a target at all times. Then what happens happens whether I'm staring at the screen or not. I think my trades were pretty good today. Lousy timing on the 1st tradeâ¦.almost stopped out. 2nd trade was terrible. Cut my profit short on the 5th trade for no good reason. The others were ok. I think a real pro would have caught that huge drop today, but looking at the chart I'm not sure how to get in a trade like that & how to stay in.
Consensus for today is that the majority of your trades were shorts, with at least 1 long trade entered between 10am and 11am EST which was stopped out. How did we do?
1st: LONG (7) Tried to catch LOD on volume climax at prev day's low. Changed my mind since action seemed kind of flat after entry & exited early. Later onâ¦â¦â¦whoopsâ¦â¦â¦â¦.that was the low of the day. Sort of messed that plan up. 2nd: SHORT (-10) Anticipated DT on 15-sec chart & a stop run below swing low. Ok that was kind of dumb I suppose. Just thought price had more work to do & would go down before going up. I'll have to classify this as a mental mistake. Have to keep it together & make good decisons. 3rd: SHORT (-9) Short after volume climax bar on 15-sec chart. That was dumb. Looks like I should have just kept Trade #1. Another mental mistake. 4th: SHORT (-9) Tried to fade the strong move again. I'm stuck in mental stupidness. 3 mental errors in a row. I know not to trade like this, but I got frustrated & felt like I was missing out & I lost my mind. There was no good reason for these 3 trades except mental weakness. 5th: LONG (0) Long on small retracement. Up 27 ticks at one point, back to breakeven. 6th: LONG (1) 1st close at 200 EMA on 15-sec chart on what was an uptrending day. Entered exactly where I just got stopped. Looks incredibly stupid in hindsight but I didn't notice the reason to stay long until after I was stopped. Up 21 ticks at one point, back to breakeven. 7th: LONG (8) Retracement 1-min. At 60-min support. Up 41 ticks at one point. Didn't want to see breakeven again, so I bailed & sold at the "exact" low tick before it turned back up. That's funnyâ¦â¦â¦but maybe not. 8th: LONG (-8) Didn't put much thought into this one. I regretted getting stopped on the previous trade because I felt I just shook myself out. Looked at the chart & saw price going up so I just jumped in. Impulsive trade, no reason to make up some fake better-sounding reason. Up 17 ticks at one point, back to minus 8. 9th: LONG (6) At this point I may have become a bit frustrated. Ok, I admit it, very frustrated. Switched to scalping mode. Price made a somewhat climactic move to 200 EMA. 10th: SHORT (8) Short small retracement for a scalp. 11th: LONG (18) Figured weak holders were all flushed out by now & didn't see any reason for price to go crashing down at the end of the day. SIM TRADING TOTAL 12 Ticks (minus commissions) 5 Winners 4 Losers 2 Breakeven NOTES Ughâ¦â¦.terrible. I thought Trade #1 was the LOD & it was, but I exited, so it doesn't matter what I thoguht. Trades 2, 3, & 4 were all due to a mental breakdown. I know those were bad. I was frustrated & lost my mind, most likely due to the fact that I had the LOD trade & got out, and then missed out on the good times. Have to stay mentally strong. Trades 5, 6, 7, & 8 great entriesâ¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦..that's all I'm saying about those. Trades 9, 10, & 11 were scalps (maybe a little desperation trading at that point). So a mental breakdown & some bad decisions today. Since I can't really stare at the screen all day I set targets. The large targets I chose were obviously not appropriate today. Trading just comes down to consistently making good decisions the entire day. They don't even have to be the "best" decisions. If I hadn't gone mental & made the bad decisions to go short on Trades 2, 3, & 4 & had made better decisions as far as my targets were concerned I would have had a pretty good day. Of course that's easy to say in hindsight, but still it comes down to making decisions. Another good decision would have been to hold on to Trade #1 & call it a day. Well anyway I'll drink a beer tonight & toast to better decisions tomorrow.
Not sure how you did, but the chart is posted. I'm probably not incredibly easy to predict since I'm trading around my job. I guarantee I would not make the same decisions if I was sitting in front of the screen watching the action non-stop. I'm not saying it would be better or worse, just different. (Hopefully better though)