%% That dog looks like Rin Tin Tin; i have book on Andrew Carnegie, he named his female dog ''Lassie''............................................................................................
For a more quantitative response to this question... Why Did Trend-Following Underperform Last Decade? https://quantpedia.com/why-did-trend-following-underperform-in-the-last-decade/ In summary, it's a lack of large risk-adjusted market moves (positive or negative) that had the biggest impact on trend-following performance over the last decade. I also suspect trend-following's ability to capitalize on large moves to their maximum potential is a contributing factor. If you get fewer bites at the cherry, you better make sure you get the most out of each bite.
BearTrades, Another thought about crossovers: I don't trade them but data presented in Kaufman's book Trading Systems and Methods and in Jaekle & Tomasini's book Trading Systems also suggests that they can work. I'm currently reading the new 6th edition of Kaufman's book, which has had some of its many backtests extended out to 2018 so its relatively up-to-date, and there's a lot of testing of systems using MA crossovers, slopes, and price bar breaks, as well as other systematic indicator-based and nonindicator-based methods. I would strongly recommend both books to anyone interested in trading using rules-based (nondiscretionary) technical analysis methods. Kaufman's book is big (1100 pages), but I downloaded the eTextbook version from Amazon and it's been fun to read (and it's nice that it's a searchable document). I should note that I've only read the 1st edition of J&T's book and apparently they published a new 2nd edition just this month. Kaufman: Jaekle and Tomasini:
I trade UK index options and post a real trade each week. Not retrospectively, but in advance. I have yet to see these systems sellers do that-they just show you last year's chart for Amazon. All my 160 + trades can be seen warts and all on my UK site -message me if anyone's interested as I cannot post the link here. TA is of limited use,but options give us a lot of ....options
This says it ALL. We have all had two or more Moving Averages on our charts and seen a crossover in a trend change that seems to go on and on like the Energizer Bunny. As Turveyd implies can those big gains exceed the whipsaw losses you will get in a choppy market with frequent reverses? That is the 64K question. (For those that can remember the quiz TV Show) The question is simply stated but the dynamics are far more complicated. Just to state a few variables: What market? Instruments trade differently: What MA intervals? Why 10/30 and not 20/40 or 9/21? Which MA to use: Look at a list of chart studies. There are a diverse assortment. What Type of Chart is it applied to? A Time Based Chart? A Tick Based Chart? A Range Bar? What defines a bar on the Chart? If is time based, is it a one minute or a 4 hour bar? What period of the day to trade the system? With different instruments some periods of the 23 hour trading (for futures) are more likely to be choppy. I suspect that there is a sweet spot in there somewhere that would be consistently profitable. But, the possible combinations of the variables I listed above are infinite. I believe @Snuskpelle in Post #13 has the better idea but if I was interested in the MA Crossover approach I would have a firm write a ACSIL based autotrade program for my Sierra Charts platform to be in the market continuously during the trading time periods that I would specify as a user input variable in the program. Then, back test on "Chart Replay" using various combinations that I listed above. If you are really interested in this strategy, don't guess if it will work, find out.
Try testing price crossing 50sma 5min bar with enough trend strength, efficiency ratio trend above .36 (price cross 50sma with 3 bar lag and not whipsawing) example chart is NQ 40 tick range bars, TOS only has 10 days range data
Intraday here current thinking is 7sma and 14sma,but via BB both 2.0dev Theory being,presume up trend..... Wait for 7 and 14 to both be going up. Take entry to join near low BB 7 2.0 Take 2nd entry near low BB 14 2.0 if the 7 breaks ( if you miss the 7 entry then just this double size maybe ) Exit at loss on the BB 14 failing or if the direction changes try to get out small loss. Profit hold and see some good runs YM 50+ profits. Stay out of chop times, so over news or US lunch break time and retire. Envelope 14 0.03 sl outside of that really. Made good $$$$$s trading this Friday on the attached chart.