NCC putting itself up for sale. Unless some stupid bank like BAC wants to pay a ridiculous premium, I would think that NCC might be taken over by the FDIC by Friday evening. If you have uninsured deposits at NCC, you should be worried that the bank is looking for a buyer
REITs are a mixed bag, but if banks aren't willing to lend, then they are toast - see GGP and CBL as an example. GS is the strongest investment bank, however they don't have a banking deposit base (like JPM and BAC), so if MS goes, then people will think that GS is next. LYG is stronger than HBOS and RBS, but if it weren't for recent UK government guarantees then I'd still be watching it like a hawk. HSBC looks like the only big UK bank without major problems.
some random thoughts: ES +7.7% but XLF +2% only. The market knows that the financials will be diluted by capital injections, be it from private investors or from the government. Some standouts: GE -1.5% AIB -10% IRE -7% RF -7%, down over 20% from intraday peak. Possible high short interest already in this company. KEY and FITB well off earlier highs STI -6% ZION -7% MI -2% CMA -2% HBAN -2% SOV -1% and might be Spanish very soon CIT -3% FBC -8% CORS -4% DSL -14%
The equity injections into the bigger banks should help, however (1) they may not be enough if/when asset prices continue to decline and (2) they can't force the banks to lend [there was a Bloomberg article about this today] (3) they can't force individuals / corporations to borrow. Some stocks that I'm watching for short opportunities: Boo hoo I don't want to be downgraded or else I'll have to raise a huge amount of capital: ABK Poor quality banks: NCC, AIB, IRE, Autos and silly SIRI: GM, F, SIRI Companies with dodgy assets: (yes they might have received equity recently but they may need more) MS, GS, C, RBS, LYG/HBOS, BCS Poor quality companies that need access to wholesale funding: CIT, SFI REITs may find it hard to refinance debt GGP, CBL, PLD, AMB, NCT, CMO, MFA, KFN, AHT, NLY Regional banks: KEY, ZION, RF, FITB, FHN, CNB, CRBC, HBAN, STI, CMA, MI, FBC Insurers: PRU, MET, HIG, XL Some more financials that need access to short-term funding: UBS, CS, DB Some 'trust banks' that need people to trust money market funds after the Reserve Fund debacle: STT, BK, LM, NTRS Some smaller stuff: CORS, DSL, FED, BKUNA, VNBC I am watching but not as bearish about: ETFC, MBI, MTG
some short ideas for 2009, and some examples of how to play the ideas: GM, GM and GM other autos and auto related, especially F insurers who rely upon positive returns from stocks: HIG, LNC, GNW retail M, TLB homebuilders: HOV, BZH monoline insurers ABK, MBI, XL, MTG, PMI, RDN REITs GGP, PLD, DDR have been bailed out but still could have some downside: FRE, FNM, AIG, C credit cards AXP, DFS, COF (and BAC, WFC, JPM) various stocks that might be burning cash and/or need to refinance debt: S, MOT, AMD, MU casinos LVS drybulk shippers DRYS
m22au: like your bear market list of stocks that still suck. I wonder if anything will save GM and F. If they file bankruptcy will it affect all the huge shorts? GM seems like free money here... almost too good to be true for shorting. Which makes me wonder if it's too good to be true for short selling.
My two big ideas for 2009 are GM and RBS RBS thread: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=151073