Kyle Bass October 2009 (includes comments about Japan) http://www.marketfolly.com/2009/10/kyle-bass-hedge-fund-hayman-capital-50.html http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/hayman.pdf May 2009: http://www.marketfolly.com/2009/05/hayman-capitals-kyle-bass-predicts.html March 2009: http://www.marketfolly.com/2009/03/kyle-bass-hayman-capital-letter-to.html David Einhorn VIC speech: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/david-einhorn-value-investing-congress-speech http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/einhorn-vic-2009-speech.pdf http://www.scribd.com/doc/21311124/Einhorn-Vic-2009-Speech
Equities rallied strongly from about ES 1034 at 9.50am ET to about 1048 ES at 10.05am ET. Interesting to note that S and PVTB didn't partake in that rally.
HBAN is another that is "flicking the red switch" before most banks. Also I note that C is weak, however I am reluctant to short it for a multi-month trade due to its TBTF status.
Underperforming banks today include: C PVTB MI SNV HBAN ETFC BPOP WTNY is only down by a bit over 1%, however intraday it hit a new 52-week low of $7.78, which is below the $8 price at which 25 million shares will be sold: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Whitney-Announces-Pricing-of-pz-3477441566.html?x=0&.v=1 (At time of writing WTNY 67.69 million shares; 528 million market cap)
If I was forced to "buy and hold" equities for a decade, I'd probably choose from the following sectors: precious metals oil agriculture On the topic of agriculture, an article from Ned Schmidt: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article14724.html
Another article about banks that have not paid TARP dividends: http://money.cnn.com/2009/11/02/news/tarp.travails.fortune/index.htm? FBP and TSFG have market caps of $150 million and look like good shorting opportunities. However like YRCW there isn't much room between the current market cap and zero, and the omnipresent risk of a short squeeze.
Business Insider and FT Alphaville are talking about government debt burdens. Links: http://www.businessinsider.com/imf-the-time-has-come-to-jack-interest-rates-2009-11 (with Scribd paper) http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/200...s-international-monetary-institution-edition/ http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/spn/2009/spn0925.pdf http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXT...agePK:34370~piPK:34424~theSitePK:4607,00.html
I have a growing obsession with $KRX http://www.kbw.com/research/KRX.asp (relevant ETF is KRE) At the time of writing ES Dec 2009 +0.77%, XLF +1.41% but KRE -0.20%. The underperformance of KRE is a big "tell" about the strength of the non-TBTF banks. Also despite the strength in XLF until October, some banks such as PVTB and WTNY touched 52-week lows in recent days.
Bookmarking thread about Japanese fiscal situation: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&goto=lastpost&threadid=181522 Thanks to everyone who has contributed on that thread.
It's only 2 mins after the jobs number, with a 10.2% unemployment rate. Equity index futures falling in response to the number. However what is most interesting is that gold did not fall in tandem with the ES, in fact it is up by $2 or $3 since 8.30am ET. I know these moves could change in the coming hours, but I still remain confident in my long gold / short S&P 500 pair, especially after the initial reaction to this morning's news.