The four bank stocks that look most likely to suffer from SIVB contagion are PACW WAL FRC SBNY https://finance.yahoo.com/quotes/sivb,kre,pacw,wal,frc,sbny/view/v1 Then the next riskiest might be CUBI and FFWM (listed in previous post) and MCB was down 14% on Friday https://finance.yahoo.com/quotes/cubi,ffwm,mcb/view/v1
Update: SBNY has failed https://www.dfs.ny.gov/reports_and_publications/press_releases/pr20230312 "Superintendent Adrienne A. Harris announced today that the New York Department of Financial Services (DFS) has taken possession of Signature Bank, pursuant to Section 606 of New York Banking Law, in order to protect depositors. DFS appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver of the bank. " https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230312b.htm
Federal Reserve Board announces it will make available additional funding to eligible depository institutions to help assure banks have the ability to meet the needs of all their depositors March 12, 2023 For release at 6:15 p.m. EDT https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230312a.htm
Joint Statement by Treasury, Federal Reserve, and FDIC Department of the Treasury Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation March 12, 2023 For release at 6:15 p.m. EDT https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230312b.htm https://www.fdic.gov/news/press-releases/2023/pr23017.html Main points: "Secretary Yellen approved actions enabling the FDIC to complete its resolution of Silicon Valley Bank, Santa Clara, California, in a manner that fully protects all depositors. Depositors will have access to all of their money starting Monday, March 13. No losses associated with the resolution of Silicon Valley Bank will be borne by the taxpayer." "We are also announcing a similar systemic risk exception for Signature Bank, New York, New York, which was closed today by its state chartering authority. All depositors of this institution will be made whole."
Moody’s Puts First Republic, Five US Banks on Downgrade Watch https://finance.yahoo.com/news/moody-puts-first-republic-five-042625345.html The six banks are FRC WAL ZION CMA UMBF and Intrust Financial https://finance.yahoo.com/quotes/kre,frc,wal,zion,cma,umbf/view/v1 https://www.moodys.com/research/Moo...ratings-under-review-for-downgrade--PR_474733 https://www.moodys.com/research/Moo...es-ratings-on-review-for-downgrade--PR_474727 https://www.moodys.com/research/Moo...ratings-under-review-for-downgrade--PR_474728 https://www.moodys.com/research/Moo...ds-ratings-on-review-for-downgrade--PR_474754 https://www.moodys.com/research/Moo...ratings-under-review-for-downgrade--PR_474753 Interesting to note, not just because of the bad PR for these banks, but also because one possible reason why SIVB sold its securities at a loss was because of the threat of a downgrade to its credit rating Silicon Valley Bank's demise began with downgrade threat https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/...gan-with-downgrade-threat-sources-2023-03-11/ SVB’s 44-Hour Collapse Was Rooted in Treasury Bets During Pandemic https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ails-after-unthinkable-heresy-becomes-reality and the actual rating downgrade on March 8 https://www.moodys.com/research/Moo...l-senior-unsecured-to-Baa1-from-A3--PR_474590
FRC https://news.firstrepublic.com/newsroom Sunday March 12 announcement "First Republic Bank Strengthens and Diversifies Liquidity" https://news.firstrepublic.com/news...ic-bank-strengthens-and-diversifies-liquidity Thursday March 16 announcement (various things including $30 billion deposit) "Reinforcing Confidence in First Republic Bank" https://news.firstrepublic.com/news...ls/reinforcing-confidence-first-republic-bank The $30 billion deposit has "an initial term of 120 days at market rates" https://www.timeanddate.com/date/dateadd.html 16 March + 120 days = 14 July end of term is therefore Friday July 14, 2023. https://ir.firstrepublic.com/filings 10-k filed on February 28, 2023 The number of shares outstanding of the Bank’s common stock, par value $0.01 per share, as of February 13, 2023 was 186,218,729
SIVB bankruptcy filing on Friday March 17 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/719739/000119312523073665/0001193125-23-073665-index.htm https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/719739/000119312523073665/d485308d8k.htm https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/719739/000119312523073665/d485308dex991.htm "SVB Financial Group Commences Chapter 11 Proceeding to Preserve Value" Mar 17, 2023, 08:00 ET https://www.prnewswire.com/news-rel...1-proceeding-to-preserve-value-301774997.html
"Midsize banks press FDIC to insure all deposits over next two years - Bloomberg" https://seekingalpha.com/news/39486...insure-all-deposits--next-two-years-bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...nsure-all-deposits-for-two-years?srnd=premium https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ask-fdic-to-insure-all-deposits-for-two-years The member banks are BKU SNV FFWM VLY UMBF https://finance.yahoo.com/quotes/bku,snv,ffwm,vly,umbf https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_banks_in_the_United_States
https://www.credit-suisse.com/about-us/en/investor-relations/investor-news.html https://www.credit-suisse.com/about...es/credit-suisse-and-ubs-to-merge-202303.html All shareholders of Credit Suisse will receive 1 share in UBS for 22.48 shares in Credit Suisse as merger consideration. This exchange ratio reflects a merger consideration of CHF 3 billion for all shares in Credit Suisse. 1 / 22.48 = 0.0444839857651246 Based on UBS closing price of 17.11 CHF, CS shareholders will receive 0.7611 CHF in value (17.11 * 0.0444839857651246 = 0.7611) Calculation confirmed by UBS press release https://www.ubs.com/global/en/investor-relations.html https://www.ubs.com/global/en/media/display-page-ndp/en-20230319-tree.html "Under the terms of the all-share transaction, Credit Suisse shareholders will receive 1 UBS share for every 22.48 Credit Suisse shares held, equivalent to CHF 0.76/share for a total consideration of CHF 3 billion." *** CS confirms shareholders will get 3bn and AT1 holders 0. This won't go down very well as it's an obvious breach of the hierarchy of claims https://twitter dot com/Discobanker/status/1637562462537936896 *** "Why $17 Billion in Credit Suisse ‘CoCos’ Got Wiped Out in UBS Takeover" https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...5ef2fe-c69c-11ed-9cc5-a58a4f6d84cd_story.html "The decision to ignore market convention — that shareholders are the first to take a hit before AT1 bonds face losses — could prove to be a huge blow to the $275 billion AT1 market and raises serious doubts about the prospects for other lenders’ CoCos." "Credit Suisse says $17 billion debt worthless, angering bondholders" https://www.reuters.com/business/fi...7-bln-bonds-zero-angering-holders-2023-03-19/ keywords: AT1 Coco coco contingent convertible bond contingent convertible bonds
Private jets in Omaha on the weekend: https://twitter dot com/FuzzyPandaShort/status/1636786948949016576