Although shorting Peugeot in a free market makes sense, it's important to remember that Governments often interfere with free markets. This is demonstrated as a distinct possibility in this article: "Peugeotâs Finance Unit May Get French Government Lifeline" http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...-funding-options-for-banking-division-1-.html where Peugeot may receive a bailout, most likely without having to issue equity to the government as part of the process.
10-02-12 Initially I thought ALU and Peugeot might be the next "big bankruptcy", but today AMD is becoming a strong candidate. Down 12% to $2.30 and a market cap of $1.67 billion. AMD bonds here: http://cxa.gtm.idmanagedsolutions.com/finra/bondcenter/SearchResult.aspx?q=amd August 2020 yielding 9.40% December 2017 yielding 8.98%
Alternatively, Navistar NAV S&P rated CCC+ October 2014 9.34% S&P rated CCC+ November 2021 9.41% http://cxa.gtm.idmanagedsolutions.com/finra/bondcenter/SearchResult.aspx?q=nav stock at new 52-week low $19.29, down 6% market cap $1.29 billion
Still not sure what the "news" is on NAV, but since I've posted, bondholders have been scared a little more. October 2014 10.21% November 2021 9.57% NAV common stock $19.00 (intraday low $18.47)
Same for AMD with bonds quite a bit softer: December 2017 9.62% August 2020 9.94% S&P rated BB- Moodys Ba3 Fitch B+
http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-10-19/pair-of-analysts-cut-advanced-micro-devices-rating Moodys downgrades AMD to B1 I think this is the S&P equivalent to B- So not far from the 'triple hooks'
RSH reported bad earnings again RSH May 2019 offered at 59.50 RSH common stock at $2.05, just above its 52-week low of $2.01
Interesting article from Paulo Santos about steel: seekingalpha.com/article/941031-keeping-abreast-of-steel And a good reference to Bloomberg quotes and charts for steel: http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CDSPDRAV:IND/ China Domestic Steel Rebar 25 mm Spot Average Price Will be useful if the steel price continues to fall, with AKS and others as possible bankruptcy plays
Update on Peugeot bailout: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-23/peugeot-said-to-consider-board-seats-in-state-aid-deal.html Although there are operational restrictions ("greater government and worker influence"), it seems that UG gets the bond guarantee without any financial penalty (eg. issuance of stock to the government).
Peugeot Gets French State Backing as Debt Load Increases http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-24/peugeot-to-raise-bank-credit-line-with-state-backing.html UG stock breaks below 5.70 EUR to new 52-week low www.bloomberg.com/quote/UG:FP