Discussion in 'Journals' started by m22au, Aug 25, 2003.
Long silver @ $5.00
I've been wondering for the last few months what the catalyst would be to end this silly multi-month rally. And it seems that today I have an answer.
After the BOJ failed to support the USD at 115 JPY, the USD is being sold off again against the JPY, down below 114.
This completes the set of important currencies that the USD is (on a multi-year timeframe) falling against - others being EUR, CHF, GBP, AUD, NZD, gold, silver, CRB index.
Gold has broken out to fresh 6-month highs and is sitting near its February high of 391.
Silver is also close to its multi-year high of 5.35 or so.
Still long silver.
Incredibly encouraging that the headlines say "lowest inflation in decades" simply because the CPI gives a reading of 1.6%.
Did you use any TA to initiate your silver position?
Going back to the middle of last year, there was a high of $5.10 or so, and then a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. A few months ago there was a higher low of $4.63 (previous low was $4.50), and that really got the metal going. It went from $4.63 to $5.10 in the space of a couple of weeks.
The 52-week high during that move was $4.93 or so, and I established my position on the breakout of that level. Not only did it break the $4.93 52-week high, but it also broke though the mid-2002 high of $5.10.
And then there's the fundamentals too ...
The costs of mining will continue to rise and there is a limited amount of precious metal. How can they not go up over the long run. I bought gold at $280 and $330. If it should make a serious pullback I would buy some more.
How long is "the long run" ?
Why can't precious metals continue to rise (in US Dollars) over the long run?
Still long silver.
Long gold @ 396
That wasn't me pushing silver up 22 cents or 4% today, but thanks to whoever it was.
I am still long both gold and silver. They're probably both due for a short-term pullback, (gold is about 415 paper US Dollars, silver is about 5.88 paper US Dollars) but if this happens, I'll be using it as an opportunity to add to my existing positions, rather than selling to take profits.
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