Lumber

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by Handle123, Mar 8, 2018.

  1. Handle123

    Handle123

    Only guarantee in life is death and taxes they say, and even taxes can be partially avoided. But let's talk Lumber has made at least 45 year highs and if you not already short, plenty of room to the downside. You can think of it like Bitcoin, can be very wild and minimum option play only worse in Lumber, so if you want some wild ass action, SELL LUMBER. Spreads might be better than heart attack moves of this market, but I never done the spreads before in this market.

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    Last edited: Mar 8, 2018
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  2. Robert Morse

    Robert Morse Sponsor

    To you, is it a sale because it made a new high or do the economics not match the price?
     
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  3. tommcginnis

    tommcginnis


    Put differently, "Technicals, or fundamentals?"


    I'd actually go with, "Both."
    WOW, that graph!
    But then, fundamentals:
    Harvey, Irma, Maria.
    That is a *powerful* set of rebuilders going on there.
    Add that to an underlying housing market bent on growth?
    You have a call for lumber.
     
  4. FSU

    FSU

    Ha, thanks Handle, you got me to add something else to my watch list. Will probably be getting myself in trouble soon enough.
     
    tommcginnis likes this.
  5. Sig

    Sig

    That's an obscure one I'd never thought of. Now I'll probably waste an entire day learning about lumber markets. Thanks!
     
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  6. Handle123

    Handle123

    I been trading same system since late 91, and has to do with 9 years prior, testing proved to me certain at % I would eventually capture 95% of the extremes and learning to hedge allowed me to get 100% . And now I believe in concept where I get in don't matter at all most of the time. But getting in proper can allow me to have astro reward to risk based on hedging. Have one target on 10% of position and rest goes to breakeven plus, automation seeks 75% of 9 year range. Have multitude of added proper signals and when to hedge when expecting counter moves which often reversed into adding more to trend trading.
     
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  7. treeman

    treeman

    It doesn't surprise me you saw this...

    Slap a weekly 1,40 PPO/MACD on that sucker, and you'll see why it's been limit down the past 3 trading says. It took me 3 days to get in, so it's a crowding trade. No guarantees in life though (as today's limit down, followed by limit up attests).

    I'm no fan of limit down/up.

    Really, pick your indicator. ATR, DMI, etc... daily, weekly, monthly. Rarified air.
     
  8. maxinger

    maxinger

    Indeed day range has been very wide recently.

    Unfortunately volume seems to be relatively low.
     
  9. treeman

    treeman

    It's been price limit down for most of the past 3 days.
     
  10. And it went limit up today! The 3 days of limit down did not signal a turnaround imo.
    Quite the opposite, support at 580 acted like a spring board and bounced that contract right up.

    What you also need to understand, is that this has a been a cash driven bull market, with futures playing catch up. With summer wildfires around the corner, and demand outstripping supply, i wouldn't short this until the market dynamic change.

    That being said, it will be a short....just a matter of when.
     
    #10     May 24, 2018