Lumber is starting to look interesting

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by Sequoia1321, Jun 27, 2020.

  1. I though some people earlier in the thread mentioned that they had placed some trades. Anyways, I'd rather not mess with it. Thanks for the input.
     
    #21     Jul 11, 2020
  2. Trader13

    Trader13

    This market is a good Use Case for a speculative OTM long option.
     
    #22     Jul 19, 2020
  3. bone

    bone

    Yes and No. I have some past professional experience trading electricity options -and there's a price to be paid for getting into and out of options in illiquid markets.
     
    #23     Jul 20, 2020
  4. What an incredible move here. No sign of a top yet.
     
    #24     Aug 13, 2020
  5. Yes, all time high it looks like. Seems to be covid related. When it drops I imagine it'll be hard and fast.
     
    #25     Aug 13, 2020
  6. #26     Aug 13, 2020
    Sequoia1321 likes this.
  7. bone

    bone

    So this is a great example of a dangerously thin exchange market that’s dominated (manipulated) by Commercials. The Commercials don’t trade the exchange market - they prefer the OTC physical market.

    1. The Commercial Producers (Georgia Pacific, etc.) have absolute control over what stays in the ground (trees) and what gets harvested and converted into building materials.

    2. The Commercial Users and Producers have a substantial information advantage as compared to other more information disseminated equity and capital markets.
     
    #27     Aug 13, 2020
    Sequoia1321 likes this.
  8. maxinger

    maxinger


    seems like you have midas touch or a powerful crystal ball.

    Since the day you posted about lumber, price has been on the rise.
    price as gone up from 300 to 730, ie 2.5X increase
    In fact, it has broken the record high

    anyway, I'd avoid trading such futures due to its extremely low volume
     
    #28     Aug 13, 2020
    Sequoia1321 and bone like this.
  9. bone

    bone

    I saved him a fortune talking him out of that gem (fading “resistance” in a thin Producer dominated OTC market).

     
    #29     Aug 13, 2020
    maxinger and Sequoia1321 like this.
  10. I'm glad I didn't short it. Changed my mind last minute.

    Yes. Thanks for that. It was helpful. Also the contract was very heavy, and saw a video from "The Uneducated Economist" Youtube channel that it was going to go higher.
     
    #30     Aug 13, 2020