Lumber is starting to look interesting

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by Sequoia1321, Jun 27, 2020.

  1. Looking at the lumber long term chart, seems to be heading for major resistance at 480:

    https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=CME:LBS1!

    Anybody experienced in this contract? Thinking about shorting it around there for a long term trade, maybe few months to a year.
     
  2. ryker

    ryker

    Lumber is one of my favorite contract to trade but only on spreads. I have started a short on the U-X spread last week and will hold for the next 2 months.
     
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  3. maxinger

    maxinger

    It has been interesting because hardly anyone trade it
     
  4. Hard to find analysis about it. Might be a good short at 480, stop at 520, and take profit at 400. Will see.
     
  5. Fonz

    Fonz

    I am having a good time with Lumber :sneaky:

    If you look at the seasonal patterns, you could see a short between the 5 to 15th of July. The COT are still Long with less strength. My chart show me Long exhaustion.

    As soon as I read the COT + a chart pattern, all going short with the seasonal, I will also go short and probably until at least mid September.

    Best!

    TSImage4.jpg
     
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  6. Cannon_Trading

    Cannon_Trading Sponsor

    Very thin market...from my colleague, John Thorpe who worked on the CBOT floor when there was still a trading floor!

    7 to 10 dollar gaps are common place. $770 to $1100

    If you are trading the lumber , don’t count on your stops to provide much protection, if any.

    I would recommend Deep Pockets only for the lumber market and watch your leverage, you would need to risk 1000’s to make 1000’s.

    Today ,volume in the Sep contract is 74 lots with OI @ 1475. If you are trading spreads enter and exit as spreads but understand, in limit move markets , one leg of the spread does not necessarily have limits. Check the rules at the website. The LaborDay/Jan21 spread has traded two lots today.

    Intriguing chart patterns, be careful here.
     
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  7. Fonz

    Fonz

    Today or Monday maximum, is a good time to exit.
    Not being to greedy, I am flat this morning.
    This is a thin market, 1 or 2 contracts maximum and always front month.
    Anyway, not a bad day :sneaky:
     
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  8. Lumber is getting closer to the 480 area which I think is a significant resistance area. Was planning on shorting there but now having second thoughts about shorting it.
     
  9. Cannon_Trading

    Cannon_Trading Sponsor

    Still strong and still very thin.....I would wait for a signal that rally running out of Gas. Perhaps correlation to copper or stocks? Close below today's lows?
    upload_2020-7-7_9-46-4.png
     
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